For August
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "The GfK NOP Index has shown a small improvement, rising three points to -36, but still 32 points lower than August last year. Consumer’s perception of their personal financial situation has improved for both the last and the next twelve months. Confidence in the UK economy over the next 12 months also showed a small improvement."

Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented: "We have seen a small improvement in Consumer Confidence in August, but this should not be seen as a turnaround in core sentiment. This improvement could be down to a number of recent factors, which are mostly of short-term influence, such as cheaper petrol offers, summer holidays happening or just a general feeling of "things can't get any worse can they?". In particular, winning gold medals in the Olympics seems to have had a lifting effect. When we looked at the Index score before and after the Olympic weekend, the score rose 3 points between the first and second weekend. This, combined with summer holiday euphoria, may have helped lift consumers' perceptions of their personal situation and the general economy."

For July (not seasonally-adjusted)
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Current Conditions: 47, pr. 56 (Jun), 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 74 (Mar)
Expectations Index: 55, pr. 64 (Jun), 75 (May), pr. 74 (Apr), 79 (Mar)
Spending Index: 54, pr. 63 (Jun), 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 67 (Mar)

From the Release: "The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell by 11 points to 51 in July. Overall consumer confidence is 18% lower than this time last month and 46% lower than a year ago. These are the largest recorded falls in the index so far. More gloomy economic data, further falls in house prices, news of job losses and yet more increases in the cost of living on the horizon are likely to have contributed to the substantial drop in confidence this month.

The Present Situation Index, which measures views about the current economic and employment situation, and the Expectations Index, which reflects sentiment about the economy, labour market and household income over the next six months, fell by 18% and 15% respectively. The Spending Index, which reflects views about spending on household goods and major purchases, also dropped by 11% in the month bringing the index level to 54.

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The continuing downward trend in consumer confidence is not surprising given the recent batch of poor economic data. Talk of the increasing chances of a recession, more weakening in the housing market and the continuing rise of food and energy costs will have further dented confidence as will reports of job losses. Falling oil prices and lower fixed mortgage rates offer some good news, but a cut in the bank base rate is still unlikely this summer.” 

For July
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: Donna Culverwell in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented:

"The Index score has dropped again this month and is now at its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. At -39, this is 4 points lower than in March 1990 when the UK was heading into the grip of the last recession. With the cost of living still on the increase, the housing market in a depression and reports of possible further increases in energy prices, levels of confidence amongst consumers are not surprisingly low, especially amongst women or those over the age of 50. There seems to be little sign of any relief either; with the growing spectre of the UK going into recession, people are pessimistic and concerned about their future - reflected in the biggest drop this month being seen in people's confidence in their own personal financial situation over coming twelve months."

For June (not seasonally-adjusted)
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Current Conditions: 56, pr. 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 74 (Mar)
Expectations Index: 64, pr. 75 (May), pr. 74 (Apr), 79 (Mar)
Spending Index: 63, pr. 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 67 (Mar)

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence index fell again this month, hitting a new low at 63 using the older non seasonally adjusted index. The new seasonally adjusted index, which came into use starting this month, showed a drop to 61 from 65. The biggest shift came from future economic expectations. "It is likely that ongoing economic uncertainty, a weakening housing market and the higher cost of food and fuel have all contributed to the growth in negative impact on consumer sentiment."

From the Release: "This month’s drop in confidence is to be expected given the recent run of bad news. With reports of rising inflation rates, weaker economic growth and further falls in house prices, it is not surprising that people are feeling much less optimistic about the future. While consumers appear to be fairly relaxed about the availability of jobs, with unemployment beginning to rise, we are likely to see a change in labour market sentiment over the coming months.”

GBP/USD - Pound Jumps on Dollar Weakness to Rally 125 Pips Despite Weaker Data Earlier: The Pound-Dollar pair hit a low following the confidence data near 1.9675, but the rest of the overnight session and NY trading saw a 125 pip surge, bringing the pair back to yesterday's high at 1.98. If the pair stalls here, it looks to be forming a sideways range. In Monday's session the Pound was pressured by weak industrial production data.

For June
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: Press Release

The index fell 5 points in June to -34, coming close to the lowest level ever recorded. Confidence over the next year fell to a new low, 42 points lower than the same time last year. The index that measures consumers willingess to make major purchases also fell to its lowest ever.

From the Release (Rachael Joy from GfK NOP): "This month the Index score continues to tumble and is almost at its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. At -34 it is only 1 point higher than the -35 recorded in March 1990 when the UK was heading into recession. With rising inflation, gloomy forecasts for interest rates and soaring fuel, utility and food prices dominating the front page headlines, it's no surprise that confidence in the general economy is almost in freefall. It seems unlikely that this trend will reverse in the near future"

For May
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Current Conditions: 60, pr. 65 (Apr), 74 (Mar)
Expectations Index: 75, pr. 74 (Apr), 79 (Mar)
Spending Index: 60, pr. 65 (Apr), 67 (Mar)

Despite registering a better than expected reading, consumer confidence hit a new low for this indicator (which started in May 2004). The present situation and spending index fell rather steeply implying that consumers are feeling the pressure and will be more reluctant to spend as the economy teeters in recessionary conditions. This week data on the manufacturing and services sectors both came in poorer than expected, which combined with a struggling housing market spells a tough road ahead for the UK economy. The Bank of England however is hard pressed to lower rates because inflation continues to post a problem.

From the Release: "Consumer Confidence remains low Consumers' confidence remained downbeat in May. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index (NCCI) fell by one point in the month to 69, continuing the decline that began in September 2007. This is the second consecutive new low* for the series and brings overall confidence to a level 30% lower than this time last year. Only the Expectations Index, which measures views about the economy, labour market and incomes in six months' time, held up during the month but even this index has fallen almost 25% over the past year.

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, said: "Consumer sentiment remained gloomy in May as consumers revised their views about the current economic situation. Darker economic news throughout the month as fuel prices reached new highs, food prices remained elevated and uncertainty about an early cut in interest rates heightened, are likely to be major factors behind this. Confidence in spending also took a big knock, but continued faith in the jobs market suggests that this is being driven by the squeeze on people's incomes from higher prices and weakness in the housing market, rather than fears over job security."

For May
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: Press Release

The GfK consumer confidence index hit an eighteen year low for the May period measuring -29. This was a 5 point drop from April's level and puts the index at its lowest level since November 1990. All five measures in the index fell. Personal financial situation in past 12 months measured -11, the lowest since December '95. Expectations for the general economic situation for the next twelve months fell one point to -39, the lowest on record (since start of survey in 1983). The major purchases measure fell 8 points, frpm -24 to -32, aso a record low for this measure.

From the Release (Rachael Joy of GfK): ""UK Consumer Confidence continues its decline and we are seeing levels not recorded since 1990; we are at a massive twenty-seven points lower than this time last year.

Consumers’ confidence in the economy over the next year, plus a reluctance to make major purchases, reflect the popular expectation of a recession - both these measures are at the lowest level on record.

The future months may see even further fall in confidence, as increasing inflation and dropping house prices make reigning in their spending even more likely to the UK consumer.”

For April
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Current Conditions: 65, pr. 74
Expectations Index: 74, pr. 79
Spending Index: 65, pr. 67

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index surprised on the downside, falling 7 points to 70 in April. It's the lowest figure since polling began in May 2004. Nationwide said that consumer sentiment may see further declines in the month to come. The primary concern are rising food and fuel prices, as well as whats turning into a serious housing slump. The Bank of England has lowered rates three times since December, but consumer don't feel like those cuts are being passed on by lenders. Also, loans for mortgages are getting harder to acquire with credit costs rising for banks. All the sub indexes fell, with consumers saying they were less wiling to spend on household goods and major purchases.

From the Release:

"Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist: The cut in interest rates in April did little to lift consumer spirits. Food and fuel prices remain high and, with house prices no longer rising, it is unlikely that consumer confidence will pick up very quickly. We may have to accept that confidence levels could well worsen before they get better. This is especially true as inflationary pressures mean the MPC will probably prefer to cut rates at a more gradual pace than many would prefer."

For April
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "Consumer Confidence is at its lowest since level since November 1992. This month’s drop has been mainly driven by dropping confidence in the general economy over the last 12 months. With the news dominated by stories of recession, the credit crunch, housing market falls, and future petrol and food price increases, it will take more than a quarter point reduction in interest rates to alleviate the current gloomy mood of the UK consumer.”

For March
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Consumer confidence slipped again in March, though it beat expectations of an even further drop. It put the index at its lowest level in 4 years. With the Pound's steep declines happening earlier in the session, the Pound did not fall further following the release. A summary of the findings from the Nationwide report are below.

From the Release:

"The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index ticked down one point to 77 in March. This modest drop continues the trend of monthly falls in consumer confidence, which started in the autumn, and reflects weakening house price growth and ongoing uncertaintyin the financial markets.

Consumers’ feelings about the current situation worsened slightly in March. The Present Situation Index (consumer sentiment about the current economic and employment situation) fell by two points to 74, from 76, due to a slight downward shift in consumers’ perceptions of the current employment situation. Consumers’ feelings about the present situation are much weaker than this time last year, when the index stood at 87, but two thirds of consumers still think the current economic situation is good or normal."

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, says, “The downturn in consumer confidence over the last six months is not surprising given developments in the financial markets and a weakening housing market. The effect of recent interest rate cuts has yet to trickle through to people’s pockets, particularly as food and energy costs are still high. Consumers may begin to feel more comfortable following the expected cut to rates this week, but it is unlikely that confidence levels will increase in the short term.”

For March
Provided by: GfK Group

GfK's Consumer confidence survey in the UK showed the lowest level in 15 years. It was also the seventh monthly decline in a row. Sentiments are dampened by all these recession talks of not only the US, but also the UK. King and the BoE will be more compelled to lower rates, as the MPC has been cautious and thus only cut rates once so far this year.

For February
Provided by: Nationwide

Nationwide Consumer Confidence hit a 3 year low pressuring the Pound vs. the Dollar and Euro. The EUR/GBP hit a new record high during Asian trading, and the GBP/USD pair fell at the European open. Consumer spending was sapped by higher gasoline and food costs. The state of the UK economy may also be weighing down on the UK consumer, as the central bank has been cutting rates in an attempt to bolster growth during a slowdown. Eleveated levels of inflation however may limit the scope of further rate cuts. 

For February

Leaked Early, Orginally scheduled for release on February 29th, 5:30AM EST

For January
Official Release from Nationwide (.pdf)

From Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Senior Economist:

"The continued downward trend in consumer confidence in January is not unexpected in light of current uncertainties about the economic outlook. Sharp falls in share prices, the rising cost of essential items and a weak exchange rate have combined to negatively impact consumer sentiment, which could be a reason for the increased pessimism around the future economic and employment situation. The expected rate cut in February may boost sentiment in the short-term but it will be some time before consumer confidence is back to the levels reported a year ago."