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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53 | 52 | 51 | 50 | ||
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For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 17, pr. 21 (Apr), 20 (Mar), 22 (Feb), 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec),
From the Release: "The more modest change in overall consumer confidence this month is no surprise and, as we continue to see contrasting news about the state of the economy, it is likely that confidence will remain fragile. While some reports suggest tentative signs of a slowing in the pace of economic decline, it is important to remember that a number of sectors are continuing to contract and any recovery is likely to be sluggish. What is clear from our findings is that while consumers remain pessimistic about the present situation, they appear to be much more confident about the future than they were at the beginning of the year." |
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| 9/2 | 10/7 | 11/4 | 12/2 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 3/3 | 4/7 | 5/5 | 6/2 | ||
| Actual | 52 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 47 | 40 | 43 | 41 | 50 | 53 | |
| Forecast | 49 | 49 | 47 | 54 | 47 | 45 | 38 | 45 | 43 | 52 | |
| Previous | 52 | 53 | 51 | 56 | 51 | 48 | 41 | 43 | 42 | 51 | |
| Revised From | 51 | N/A | 50 | 55 | 50 | 47 | 40 | N/A | 41 | 50 | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -25 | -25 | -27 | N/A | ||
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For June
From the Release:
Rachael Joy, in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP, commented, After a pause last month, Consumer Confidence once more returned to growth and is now up 14 points from its all time low of last year. Confidence, however, remains fragile, as uncertainty about the strength of any recovery and an increase in unemployment all mean that consumers continue wary. Indeed, there was an firm decline in those agreeing that now is a good time for making any major purchases. |
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| 9/29 | 10/30 | 11/27 | 12/18 | 1/29 | 2/26 | 3/30 | 4/29 | 5/28 | 6/29 | ||
| Actual | -32 | -36 | -35 | -33 | -37 | -35 | -30 | -27 | -27 | -25 | |
| Forecast | -39 | -35 | -38 | -39 | -34 | -39 | -35 | -29 | -25 | -25 | |
| Previous | -36 | -32 | -36 | -35 | -33 | -37 | -35 | -30 | -27 | -27 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -27 | -25 | -27 | N/A | ||
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For May
From the Release:
Racheal Joy, in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP, comments: "After rising steadily since February, the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence index has held steady at -27 this month. This is still very low historically, but is at least standing firm in the face of continuing depressed markets and May’s warnings of a possible pandemic. Worries about job losses and harder times are still very much alive – recent GfK NOP research shows that a quarter of the UK are concerned they may lose their job, and nearly half said they have concerns about maintaining their lifestyle – but the UK appears to be stoical about the continuing economic situation.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50 | 43 | 42 | 41 | ||
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For April (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 21, pr. 20 (Mar), 22 (Feb), 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec),
From the Release: "The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index rose by eight points to 50 in April, the largest single monthly rise for nearly two years. All the sub-indices recorded a rise this month, with the Expectations Index increasing by 13 points to 70, a rise on this scale has not been seen since May 2007. The Present Situation Index, which had been falling since June 2008, recorded a one point increase to 21. The Spending Index moved only marginally during the month and continued its upward trend from 97 to 98. The improvement in confidence this month, particularly in the Expectations Index, may reflect reports that, whilst the UK economy remains in recession, the rate of economic decline is beginning to ease. Only marginal changes were seen in the Present Situation Index, suggesting that consumers remain concerned about the current economic environment and the labour market. It is too early to say whether this month’s results mark the start of an upturn in confidence." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -27 | -29 | -30 | N/A | ||
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For April
From the Release: "The GfK NOP index rose this month to -27, still historically low, but up 12 points from last July’s all time lowest ever. Significantly, this is now the third consecutive month that we have seen a rise in the index – suggesting a definite upward trend - and it’s largely driven by the public’s perception that the next twelve months will be better for both our own personal finances and particularly for the economy in general. This could be down to a combination of the simple belief that things are improving, as well as the feel good factor of improving weather following the Easter Bank Holiday. It is worth noting that fieldwork this month was carried out before the Budget announcement, so we’re very interested to see how next month’s results are affected by that." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 41 | 45 | 43 | N/A | ||
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For March (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 19, pr. 22 (Feb), 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec), 32 (Nov), 35 (Oct),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -30 | -35 | -35 | N/A | ||
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For March
From the Release: "Consumers remain cautious but confidence slowly increasing.
Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP comments: "This month Consumer Confidence jumped quite significantly to levels not seen since May last year. It still remains historically very low, but suggests that lower interest rates and a better picture for household bills are restoring some confidence among UK Consumers. Certainly, when looking to the future, consumers are feeling better about the likely performance of the economy over the next 12 months.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 43 | 38 | 41 | 40 | ||
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For February (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 22, pr. 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec), 32 (Nov), 35 (Oct), 39 (Sep),
From the Release: "The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded its first rise since October 2008 in February. Despite the weakening economic conditions, the index increased from 41 in January to 43 in February. Consumers became more optimistic about the future economic and labour market conditions during the month and this has been the main reason for the rise in overall confidence in February. In contrast, the spate of bad economic news and reported job losses in major industries may have dampened consumers’ perceptions of where we are now. Confidence in the present situation dropped for the eighth consecutive month in February, leaving the index at 22, less than a third of its level last year. Consumers’ feelings about spending, particularly on household goods, continue to be resilient. Only 16% think that now is a bad time to buy goods like fridges and hi-fis, which could be a reflection on the significant discounts available. In addition, more consumers think it’s a good time to make a major purchase. Falling house prices and bigger discounts on new cars may well have affected this, but it remains to be seen how quickly this sentiment will lead to larger numbers of transactions given the current economic conditions." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -35 | -39 | -37 | N/A | ||
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For February
From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 40 | 45 | 48 | 47 | ||
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For January (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 23, pr. 28 (Dec), 32 (Nov), 35 (Oct), 39 (Sep), 46 (Aug),
From the Release: "The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded a further fall in January, ticking down to 40 from 48 in December. This reduction brings the Index to half the level of this time last year and is a clear reflection of consumers’ growing concerns about the economic downturn. The economic and labour market situation, both now and in the future are the major reasons for the continued fall in confidence. The Present Situation and Expectations indices also fell to 23 and 51 respectively. However, following the steep increase in December, the Spending Index remained static at 83 during the month, perhaps still supported by price reductions on the high street and the latest cut in the Bank Rate." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -37 | -34 | -33 | N/A | ||
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For January
UK consumer confidence weakened again in January, following a surprise recovery in December. The GfK index fell to -37 which was the second weakest reading since the survey began in 1974. Despite aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and efforts by the government at fiscal action, consumers remain pessimistic about their economic prospects. Indices measuring consumer's assessment over the next 12 months and the previous 12 months both fell. There was a small improvement in the major purchase measure, which tracks how willing consumers are to make major purchases, which has something to do with the government decision to cut sales tax to 15% from 17%, heavy discounting and the fall in gasoline priceswhich put a little more money in consumer pockets. Still, things are bleak when comparing to the period prior to the credit crunch. From the Release: "One of the most noticeable changes in overall confidence was apparent when we looked at the 16-29 year olds; taking this segment on their own, they showed a large confidence drop of ten points over the last month. This perhaps is a reaction to the recent spate of reported job losses, with fears that those wanting to enter the job market will be unable to do so. The Saving measure also took a significant hit this month, a clear reaction to the interest rate drops, which are aimed at rejuvenating the economy. While there was a small improvement in the Major Purchase measure, we are still nowhere near the levels seen in 2007.”
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 47 | 47 | 51 | 50 | ||
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For December (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 28, pr. 30 (Nov), 36 (Oct), 40 (Sep), 47 (Aug), 50 (Jul)
Consumer confidence in the UK fell to the lowest level since 1999 when Nationwide began its survey. Though the spending index increased, consumers evaluation of their present and future conditions fell again this month. Consumer spending was down the most since 1995 in the third quarter, and GDP data for the 4th quarter is expected to be worse.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -33 | -39 | -35 | N/A | ||
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For November
Provided by: GfK Group Previous Release: Press Release |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50 | 54 | 56 | 55 | ||
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For November (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 32, pr. 35 (Oct), 39 (Sep), 46 (Aug), 49 (Jul), 58 (Jun)
The National Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6 points from the upwardly revised 56 in October to 50 in November. There was a lone improvement in the spending index, as consumers believed it was a good time to make some major pruchases. However, when asked about the economy and the labor market, sentiments were not cheery to say the least. Consumer confidence dropped further in November The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell again this month, despite falling fuel and food costs and a substantial reduction in the Bank of England base rate. Reports that the UK is now in a recession, increased unemployment and continued financial market instability have almost certainly had a significant impact on consumer confidence in November. The only index to see a rise this month was the Spending Index, which increased from 56 in October to 64 in November. This is, however, more likely to reflect consumers’ observations of lower prices rather than their intention to buy. Confidence in the current economic and labour markets fell to 30 during the month, while the Expectations Index fell to 63 in November, perhaps driven by the realisation that a rapid turnaround in the economy and labour market is unlikely. The British Chancellor, Alistar Darling had announced a stimulus package of £20 billion, and an immediate VAT tax cut. While this may continue to support sales, along with deep discounts from worried retailers, sentiments will not change fundamentally until there is a broad based recovery in different sectors such as housing, manufacturing, and services. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -35 | -38 | -36 | N/A | ||
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For November
The GfK consumer confidence index rose by one point to -35 from -34 as the personal financial situation sub gauge climbed 2 points and confidence in major purchases saw an improvement of 4 points.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 55 | 47 | 51 | 50 | ||
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For October (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 35, pr. 39 (Sep), 46 (Aug), 49 (Jul), 58 (Jun), 58 (May)
Nationwide's Consumer Confidence Index for the UK read 55 for October, which is 4 points higher than the September index. Consumers are feeling a bit of a reprieve from the government actions to contain the credit crisis. The biggest improvement was in the expectations index, jumping from 58 in September to 69. Also, heavy discounts caught notice as the spending index edged up from 53 to 55. However consumers did become moregloomy about the current conditions, especially regarding the deteriorating employment market. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist noted in the release: "The actions taken by the Government and the Bank of England to support financial markets do seem to have buoyed consumers' confidence and could be responsible for the increased confidence in the future economic situation. However, with the economy heading into recession, there will be bumpy times ahead for the UK consumer and it is likely to be some time before confidence returns to the level of a year ago. Rapid cuts in interest rates are however on the horizon and this may support a recovery in confidence going forward." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -36 | -35 | -32 | N/A | ||
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For October
From the Release: "Consumers brace themselves for a recession.
Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented: The index score this month has returned to the level we saw in August. The turmoil surrounding the banking world and subsequent turbulence in the financial markets is making for an uncertain time. Consumers are not at all confident about buying major purchases as rising food and energy bills leave them increasingly worried about keeping up with payments, and saving has also seen a considerable drop, possibly due to fears of the safety of savings, as well as straightened resources as household bills increase. Even the reduction of the interest rate and lower petrol prices are unlikely to have a significant affect on confidence in the upcoming months as Consumers brace themselves for what they see as a very difficult economic time over the Christmas period ahead.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50 | 49 | 53 | N/A | ||
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For September (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 39, pr. 46 (Aug), 49 (Jul), 58 (Jun), 58 (May)
From the Release: "Following a two month period of stability, the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index dropped three points to 50 in September. Ongoing economic uncertainty, a further fall in house prices, rising unemployment and the impact of high food and fuel costs may have contributed to the drop in confidence. The Present Situation Index fell seven points to 39 during the month, reflecting the gloom about the current state of the economy. However, the Expectations Index and the Spending Index remained flat in September, perhaps suggesting that consumers do not think that things will continue to deteriorate at the current pace. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist said: “Consumers have been adjusting the way they feel about the current economic and employment situation since July and this continues to be the main driver behind the drop in overall confidence in September. While consumers recognise that there are some good deals available, rising unemployment, falling house prices and the continued turmoil in the financial markets are likely to mean that confidence will take some time to recover.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -32 | -39 | -36 | N/A | ||
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For September
From the Release: "Rachael Joy in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented, "In the first half of September, we saw a second small improvement in consumer confidence, although this is still at a level not seen since the 1990's recession. The major purchase index in particular showed its first increase in twelve months (although it is still a massive 29 points lower than this time last year); possibly a reflection of the discount offers available on the high street as retailers try to attract consumers to buy." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 52 | 49 | 52 | 51 | ||
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For August (n.s.a.)
Current Conditions: 45, pr. 48 (Jul), pr. 56 (Jun), 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr)
The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged in August when compared to the upwardly revised July market of 52. The overall confidence is 44% lower than this time in the previous year. The index has been declining without rest since hitting 99 in September 2007.The index was set at 100 in May 2004. Consumer confidence did not decline due to easing of petrol prices and reductions in new mortgage rates. Even the olympics helped. However, views on the current economy continued to worsen, reflected by the current condition index dropping to 45 from 48. On the bright side, there is a slight improvement looking foward. Views on current and future employment was possibly dampened by an increase in unemployment according the Nationwide, and plans to spending on major purchases also scaled back. |
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