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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 80 | 71 | 74 | 73 | ||
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For February (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 27, pr. 23 (Jan), 20 (Dec), 20 (Nov), 22 (Oct),
From the Release: "The Consumer Confidence Index has risen for the second consecutive month, increasing by six points to 80 in February. This increase means that the Index now stands at its highest level since January 2008, and almost double the level recorded during the same period last year (41). The Present Situation and Expectations indices have also experienced some upward momentum at the start of 2010, with the indices rising to 27 and 115 points respectively. However, confidence in spending continued to fall away during the month and dropped four points to 93 in February. Expectations about house prices rose slightly in February, with consumers expecting the value of their home to increase by 1.5% over the next six months, compared to 1.1% in January." |
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| 5/5 | 6/2 | 7/7 | 8/4 | 9/8 | 10/6 | 11/3 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 3/2 | ||
| Actual | 50 | 53 | 58 | 60 | 63 | 71 | 72 | 69 | 73 | 80 | |
| Forecast | 43 | 52 | 55 | 59 | 62 | 68 | 72 | 72 | 70 | 71 | |
| Previous | 42 | 51 | 54 | 59 | 61 | 65 | 72 | 74 | 70 | 74 | |
| Revised From | 41 | 50 | 53 | 58 | 60 | 63 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 73 | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -14 | -17 | -17 | N/A | ||
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For February
From the Release: "The government will be pleased to see the overall index continuing to rise, and only one point short of its recent peak. It is still almost inconceivable that the index will be in positive territory by the election, but so long as it continues to rise, the government will continue to hope that people associate their improving mood with actions taken by the government. It is also significant that, for the second month running, the biggest gains in individual elements of the index were for the view of the economy in general over the last and next 12 months.” |
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| 4/29 | 5/28 | 6/29 | 7/30 | 8/27 | 9/29 | 10/29 | 11/29 | 1/28 | 2/25 | ||
| Actual | -27 | -27 | -25 | -25 | -25 | -16 | -13 | -17 | -17 | -14 | |
| Forecast | -29 | -25 | -25 | -23 | -24 | -24 | -14 | -11 | -18 | -17 | |
| Previous | -30 | -27 | -27 | -25 | -25 | -25 | -16 | -13 | -19 | -17 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 73 | 70 | 70 | 69 | ||
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For January (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 23, pr. 20 (Dec), 20 (Nov), 22 (Oct), 19 (Sep),
From the Release: "Despite a downward stutter last month, the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded a three point increase in January to 73, almost double the level of confidence recorded during the same period last year (39%). While the Present Situation and Expectations indices both ticked up to 23 and 107 respectively, confidence in spending fell away sharply during the month and dropped to 96 in January from 108 in December." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -17 | -18 | -19 | N/A | ||
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For January
Provided by: GfK Group |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 69 | 72 | 74 | 73 | ||
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For December (s.a.)
Current Conditions: pr. 20, 22 (Oct), 19 (Sep), 17 (Aug), 16 (Jul),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -17 | -11 | -13 | N/A | ||
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For November
From the Release: "The overall index score this month dropped back by 4 points and is now at a score of -17, still eighteen points better than this time last year. Four of the five measures this month experienced a marked downturn. However the annual moving average improved and is now -27." Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research comments, "Given that the Government’s best chance – indeed probably their only chance – of retaining power in next May’s general election is to contest it on the back of several months of economic improvement, this month’s Consumer Confidence figures will come as a real blow. After a fairly steady rise throughout 2009 the index is 20 percentage points above where it was at the start of the year, but this month is the first time the index has fallen for over a year.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 72 | 72 | 72 | 71 | ||
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For October (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 22, pr. 19 (Sep), 17 (Aug), 16 (Jul), 17 (Jun),
From the Release: "“While overall confidence among consumers remained static during October we did see some small adjustments to consumers’ perceptions of current employment and economic conditions, and their expectations of where these will be in six months’ time. It was largely expected that official figures released in October would show that the UK has come out of recession and this, along with further rises in house prices, may have helped to buoy positive sentiment towards the current situation during the month. Surprisingly, however, the UK’s gross domestic product was reported to have contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter. Nonetheless, there does appear to be a growing belief among consumers that, while the current situation is still somewhat downbeat, the future outlook is brighter.”" |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -13 | -14 | -16 | N/A | ||
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For October
From the Release: "Consumer Confidence in the UK improved for the second month running to -13, a level that we have not seen since January 2008. While this is still in negative territory, we have now not seen a drop in the monthly confidence rating throughout 2009 – indicating a steady, if cautious, uplift in British confidence in our economic situation. Only 1 out of the 4 measures that make up our Index figure showed a drop, and that was a one-point drop in our confidence in the general economy over the next 12 months, suggesting that consumers are still wary of the future and so the overall trend towards uplift is still fragile." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 71 | 68 | 65 | 63 | ||
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For Septemebr (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 19, pr. 17 (Aug), 16 (Jul), 17 (Jun), 18 (May),
From the Release: "September saw a much stronger increase in overall confidence compared with recent months and the Index is now at its highest level since April 2008. Expectations for the future economic situation are also buoyant, with pessimism about the labour market situation starting to decrease. The substantial rise in positive sentiment seen in the Expectations Index reflects widespread reports from various industry commentators recently suggesting that the worst of the recession is over. Such reports may have helped to improve sentiment in September, which may have also been boosted by continued positive news about the housing market and the strong rally seen in the equity markets in recent months. However, consumers’ assessment of the present situation is still fairly downbeat and, while they do appear to be optimistic for the future, it is likely that any recovery will continue to be sluggish as consumers adapt to the economic environment.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -16 | -24 | -25 | N/A | ||
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For September
From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 63 | 62 | 61 | 60 | ||
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For August (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 17, pr. 16 (Jul), 17 (Jun), 18 (May), 21 (Apr),
The NCCI rose by 2 points to 63. This is the first time the index has increase since April 2009 and corresponds with increases in the 3 sub-indexes. Confidence is improving about future conditions. Sentiments regarding the labor market stabilized after July's dip in confidence. Spending however continues to be cautious. Despite the improving sentiments across all the indexes, Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist warns: "...It is likely that there will be a protracted recovery and we may see some volatility in the data as factors such as the rise in fuel duty affect sentiment. Although positive news about the housing market may have helped boost confidence, consumers’ views about spending remain relatively cautious, possibly because the level of heavy discounting seen earlier in the year has now subsided." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 60 | 59 | 59 | 58 | ||
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For July (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 16, pr. 17 (Jun), 18 (May), 21 (Apr), 20 (Mar),
From the Release: "Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded a slight increase of one point in July. Overall, sentiment remained stable. While the Present Situation Index fell one point, this was countered by the Future Expectations Index which increased by one point. The most significant changes in consumer confidence this month are that confidence in spending has fallen and that for the first time for over a year, consumers expect the value of their homes to rise over the next six months." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 58 | 55 | 54 | 53 | ||
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For June (s.a.)
Current Conditions: 17, pr. 18 (May), 21 (Apr), 20 (Mar), 22 (Feb),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -25 | -25 | -27 | N/A | ||
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For June
From the Release:
Rachael Joy, in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP, commented, After a pause last month, Consumer Confidence once more returned to growth and is now up 14 points from its all time low of last year. Confidence, however, remains fragile, as uncertainty about the strength of any recovery and an increase in unemployment all mean that consumers continue wary. Indeed, there was an firm decline in those agreeing that now is a good time for making any major purchases. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53 | 52 | 51 | 50 | ||
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For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 17, pr. 21 (Apr), 20 (Mar), 22 (Feb), 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec),
From the Release: "The more modest change in overall consumer confidence this month is no surprise and, as we continue to see contrasting news about the state of the economy, it is likely that confidence will remain fragile. While some reports suggest tentative signs of a slowing in the pace of economic decline, it is important to remember that a number of sectors are continuing to contract and any recovery is likely to be sluggish. What is clear from our findings is that while consumers remain pessimistic about the present situation, they appear to be much more confident about the future than they were at the beginning of the year." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -27 | -25 | -27 | N/A | ||
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For May
From the Release:
Racheal Joy, in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP, comments: "After rising steadily since February, the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence index has held steady at -27 this month. This is still very low historically, but is at least standing firm in the face of continuing depressed markets and May’s warnings of a possible pandemic. Worries about job losses and harder times are still very much alive – recent GfK NOP research shows that a quarter of the UK are concerned they may lose their job, and nearly half said they have concerns about maintaining their lifestyle – but the UK appears to be stoical about the continuing economic situation.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50 | 43 | 42 | 41 | ||
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For April (s.a.)
Provided by: Nationwide Official Release: PDF
Current Conditions: 21, pr. 20 (Mar), 22 (Feb), 23 (Jan), 28 (Dec),
From the Release: "The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index rose by eight points to 50 in April, the largest single monthly rise for nearly two years. All the sub-indices recorded a rise this month, with the Expectations Index increasing by 13 points to 70, a rise on this scale has not been seen since May 2007. The Present Situation Index, which had been falling since June 2008, recorded a one point increase to 21. The Spending Index moved only marginally during the month and continued its upward trend from 97 to 98. The improvement in confidence this month, particularly in the Expectations Index, may reflect reports that, whilst the UK economy remains in recession, the rate of economic decline is beginning to ease. Only marginal changes were seen in the Present Situation Index, suggesting that consumers remain concerned about the current economic environment and the labour market. It is too early to say whether this month’s results mark the start of an upturn in confidence." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -27 | -29 | -30 | N/A | ||
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For April
From the Release: "The GfK NOP index rose this month to -27, still historically low, but up 12 points from last July’s all time lowest ever. Significantly, this is now the third consecutive month that we have seen a rise in the index – suggesting a definite upward trend - and it’s largely driven by the public’s perception that the next twelve months will be better for both our own personal finances and particularly for the economy in general. This could be down to a combination of the simple belief that things are improving, as well as the feel good factor of improving weather following the Easter Bank Holiday. It is worth noting that fieldwork this month was carried out before the Budget announcement, so we’re very interested to see how next month’s results are affected by that." |
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