For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Consumer confidence slipped back below the 100 level in the March 2009 quarter, as consumers took on board the weight of recent negative economic news. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell to 96.0 in March, from 101.3 in December. At current levels, confidence is still above the low reached in June last year (when the Index fell to 81.7), when high interest rates, petrol and other cost pressures were putting the squeeze on consumers. An index number over 100 indicates there are more optimists than pessimists, while a number under 100 indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists. 

Businesses are deeply pessimistic and expect to cut back sharply on investment and employment over the coming year; unemployment is on the rise; house prices continue to fall albeit at a slower rate; and lower NZD is putting upward pressure on the price of imported goods, including petrol where prices have risen around 14% since the survey was last taken in December 2008.

Taking all of this on board, New Zealand consumers have remained remarkably resilient. Certainly, when we look at our international counterparts, New Zealand consumers appear to be less pessimistic than most."

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Consumer confidence eased back in the December 2008 quarter, although remains in optimistic territory. The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell to 101.3, from 104.8 in September. An index number over 100 indicates there are more optimists than pessimists, while a number under 100 indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists. The margin of error in the survey is 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval.

Consumer confidence collapsed in the first half of this year, as the soaring cost of living, a correction in the housing market, and the negative effects of drought drove consumers into a state of depression. However, many of the factors previously squeezing household budgets have since started to abate: interest rates, fuel, and food prices are falling sharply, and tax cuts are being delivered. These influences, along with the prospect of a change in government, helped to spur a flurry of optimism in September.

However since then we have seen the global financial market turmoil escalate into a full blown global economic downturn, such that there is now a strong prospect of a deep global recession in 2009. That appears to have overwhelmed consumers this quarter, particularly those in the dairy-intensive regions of New Zealand."

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Westpac
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

• "Consumer confidence stages a record improvement in 2008Q3, with the Index now back in optimistic territory.
• The rebound is broad based, led by an improvement in perceptions around the short term economic outlook.
• The recent slump in consumer spending looks to have been arrested, and risks outstripping the RBNZ’s September expectations.
• However, domestic monetary policy will take its cue from world financial market developments over the next few months. We expect the OCR to hit 6.5% in January 2009 as the RBNZ fights to offset the rising cost of funds."

Westpac Consumer Confidence for 1st Quarter.
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (subscription required)

Consumer confidence in the 1st quarter, as measured by the Melbourne Institute, slipped 13.5 points to its weakest level in over a decade. According to Westpac economist Donna Purdue, consumers are facing rising food and gas prices, higher mortgage interest rates, drought, falling house price inflation, and turmoil in global financial markets which caused the indicator to fall but a steep amount.

The NZD/USD pair has been recovering this week, climbing 150 pips from its low (0.7880) in Sunday trading, though the pairs gains have become increasing choppy at the NY open. The consumer confidence news had little effect as 10 AM EST.