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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | ||
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For March
From the Release: "The GfK consumer climate in Germany will remain virtually stable in March, with a marginal loss of 0.1 points. Economic expectations have recorded a considerable decline, and income expectations and the propensity to buy have dropped back slightly. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.2 points for March 2010, following a revised value of 3.3 points in February. Anticipation of an increasingly difficult situation on the labor market in the coming months is overshadowing the positive effects of Germany’s Economic Growth Acceleration Act, and causing the income expectations of Germans to stagnate. Public discussion of the precarious budgetary situation of Greece and some other European countries is also unsettling consumers, as they fear negative effects on Germany’s economic development. Consequently, economic expectations are declining and consumers are considering their spending behavior more carefully than in previous months. The propensity to buy is therefore decreasing slightly."
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| 5/26 | 6/23 | 7/27 | 8/27 | 9/25 | 10/26 | 11/25 | 12/22 | 1/25 | 2/24 | ||
| Actual | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Forecast | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Previous | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.3 | N/A | 3.7 | N/A | 3.2 | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.4 | N/A | ||
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For February
From the Release: "The slight cooling of the consumer climate in Germany will continue in February. Economic expectations are recording stable development, and the propensity to buy is increasing slightly again. In contrast, income expectations have recorded losses. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.2 points for February 2010, following a revised value of 3.4 points in January. German consumers are assuming that the German economy is slowly recovering from the recession, a view that is shared by many experts. However, small set-backs cannot be ruled out, and economic expectations have consequently stagnated in January. An expected rise in unemployment in the coming months and increasing fears of redundancies mean that consumers are less optimistic in their income expectations. Conversely, the many price cuts in the retail sector are boosting the propensity to buy, which has recorded an increase this month." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | N/A | ||
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For November
From the Release: "The consumer climate declined slightly as 2009 draws to a close. While the propensity to buy stabilized at a good level, conversely, economic and income expectations dropped back moderately. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.7 points for December, following a value of 4.0 points in November. After their continuous upward trend of the past seven months, German economic expectations dropped back down in November, primarily as a result of growing public fears of rising unemployment. In the wake of this, income expectations also fell, in particular, given the fact of the reduced effect of the low energy prices, which have been fuelling purchasing power. However, the propensity to buy remained at a good level, even without the benefit of the scrappage scheme. In all likelihood, this is attributable to the stable price climate." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | ||
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For October
The GfK Report of consumer climate dropped unexpectedly in October as both income expectations and the propensity to buy declined. This recorded loss for income is the fifth month in a row, and is moderate. The propensity to buy dropped 10 points to 26.1, but is still 44 points above the level this time last year. The income expectations caused consumers to curb spending habits.
From the release: Despite this slight setback, private consumption remains the major source of support for the German economy this year, since investments and exports will record large decreases at the close of 2009. It remains to be seen whether private consumption can also fulfill this supportive function in the coming year. A rise in unemployment will have a negative impact on the domestic economy. However, owing to the slightly brighter economic outlook for 2010, it is to be hoped that the originally feared slump in employment will not occur, and that unemployment will climb less steeply than predicted." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | N/A | ||
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For October
From the Release: "The upward trend in the consumer climate in Germany is continuing at the beginning of autumn. Economic and income expectations are increasing and the propensity to buy has once again improved on its good level. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 4.3 points for October 2009, following a revised value of 3.8 points in September. Over the past few weeks there have been a growing number of reports claiming that the economic decline is less severe than was feared several months ago. Consequently, the future outlook of consumers is becoming increasingly optimistic, with economic expectations rising for the sixth time in a row. In addition, the calm price climate and lack of inflation is ensuring that purchasing power is strengthening. Income expectations and the propensity to buy are therefore continuing their upward trend. The fact that the feared slump on the labor market has so far not materialized is also supporting the positive mood."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.5 | N/A | ||
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For September
From the Release: "The upward trend in the German consumer climate is continuing into late summer. Both economic and income expectations have once again increased and the pro-pensity to buy has also improved. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.7 points for September 2009, following a revised value of 3.4 points in August. However, in a long-term comparison, the consumer climate continues to remain at a relatively low level. According to the latest reports from various economic institutes, the downward spiral of the German economy seems to have come to a stop, and consequently, economic pessimism has further diminished and economic expectations have increased for the fifth time in succession." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | N/A | ||
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For August
From the Release: "In Germany, the upwards trend in the consumer climate continues on
through the summer. Both economic and income expectations have
increased and there has been a considerable rise in the propensity to
buy. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 3.5 points for
August 2009, following a revised value of 3.0 points in July, and has
therefore improved more strongly than in the previous month. In a
longer term comparison however, the consumer climate is still at a very
low level.
After some economic institutes signaled an end to the economic downturn, the economic pessimism on the part of consumers also declined. Following a moderate climb in the previous month, July saw a somewhat stronger improvement in the economic outlook. Inflation is disappearing and people have more money in their pockets. Consumers are rewarding this situation with another rise in income expectations. Furthermore, stable and indeed falling prices led to the propensity to buy recording the biggest gain of all the indicators in July. Alongside favorable prices, the fact that the labor market has not slumped yet plays an important role here. However, the acid test for the consumer climate still lies ahead should there be a significant rise in unemployment figures again in late autumn."
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | N/A | ||
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For July
From the Release: "After several months of stagnation, the mood of consumers in Germany is once again showing a slight upwards trend, with economic and income expectations on the in-crease and the propensity to buy also improving slightly. The over-all indicator is forecasting a value of 2.9 points for July 2009, following a revised value of 2.6 points in June, and is therefore climbing slightly following a period of stability. However, the consumer climate remains at a low level overall." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | N/A | ||
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For June
From the Release: "Consumer sentiment remained virtually constant in May this year. While economic expectations were slightly up for the second time in a row, the prospects for income were down somewhat. Consumer propensity to buy remained virtually unchanged at a good level. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.5 points for June, following a value of 2.5 points for May and with this, the consumer climate has remained stable since March. Increasingly, the indicators have been signalling that the steep contraction of the German economy is bottoming out, giving rise to hopes of reasonable stabilization before the end of the year. The economic outlook, although remaining at a very low level, has also risen for the second time in a row and the propensity to buy also defended its positive level to remain virtually unchanged in May. Conversely, however, income expectations dropped back as a result of escalating fears of job losses, concerns which are rising in the wake of increased short-time work and declining income prospects. The consumer climate index for June continues to indicate that the consumer mood remains stable. However, consumer sentiment has yet to face a real test when confronted by the anticipated rise in unemployment." |
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