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Indicator Digest

Consumer Confidence
Countries measure the mood of their consumers by surveying consumer attitudes regarding present economic conditions each month. Consumer spending usually makes up two-thirds of GDP in a developed economy, and therefore is important to monitor. Consumer confidence also affects stock and bond markets, and can give insight into consumers reactions to any economic shocks. The general method in scoring the confidence level is through household surveys conducted monthly. Some use preliminary estimates which surveys fewer households at the beginning of the month, and a final survey that encompasses a larger sample pool towards the end of the month.

Main Indicator: Consumer Confidence Index (GfK)

Most Recent Release

June
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.9 2.5 2.6 N/A

For July
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "After several months of stagnation, the mood of consumers in Germany is once again showing a slight upwards trend, with economic and income expectations on the in-crease and the propensity to buy also improving slightly. The over-all indicator is forecasting a value of 2.9 points for July 2009, following a revised value of 2.6 points in June, and is therefore climbing slightly following a period of stability. However, the consumer climate remains at a low level overall."

Table of Past Data

9/2510/2811/2512/221/282/263/264/275/266/23
Actual1.81.92.22.12.22.62.42.52.52.9
Forecast1.31.51.52.11.92.02.52.32.52.5
Previous1.61.81.92.12.22.32.52.52.52.6
Revised From1.5N/AN/A2.22.12.22.62.4N/AN/A

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Past Releases

May
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.5 2.5 2.5 N/A

For June
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Consumer sentiment remained virtually constant in May this year. While economic expectations were slightly up for the second time in a row, the prospects for income were down somewhat. Consumer propensity to buy remained virtually unchanged at a good level. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.5 points for June, following a value of 2.5 points for May and with this, the consumer climate has remained stable since March.

Increasingly, the indicators have been signalling that the steep contraction of the German economy is bottoming out, giving rise to hopes of reasonable stabilization before the end of the year. The economic outlook, although remaining at a very low level, has also risen for the second time in a row and the propensity to buy also defended its positive level to remain virtually unchanged in May. Conversely, however, income expectations dropped back as a result of escalating fears of job losses, concerns which are rising in the wake of increased short-time work and declining income prospects. The consumer climate index for June continues to indicate that the consumer mood remains stable. However, consumer sentiment has yet to face a real test when confronted by the anticipated rise in unemployment."

April
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4

For May
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "In spite of the difficulties of the economic crisis, the German consumer climate continued to be stable this April. After a slight drop in the previous month, economic and income expectations were even slightly up. Although consumer propensity to buy declined somewhat, it nevertheless remained at a pleasing level. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.5 points for May, following a revised value, also of 2.5 points, for April and with this, the consumer climate is proving to be surprisingly resilient in the face of all the gloomy predictions.

Factors which increase purchasing power, such as low inflation, lower energy prices and higher pensions, along with some isolated signs signalling a trend reversal by the end of the year, are evidently ensuring that April 2009 has seen a rise in both economic and income expectations."

March
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6

For April
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

Germany’s consumer confidence declined for the first time in seven months, with the GfK German consumer climate indicator for April declining to 2.4 from March’s downwardly revised 2.5, GfK Group reported. Economic expectations declined to -32.8 in March from -27.9 in February, while income expectations decreased minimally to -11.4 from February’s -11.0.

From the Release: "In spite of a flood of negative information about economic development, the overall mood among German consumers has remained virtually unchanged. Although, following increases in the previous month, economic and income expectations are now slightly on the decline, the propensity to buy remains at a good level this month. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.4 points for April 2009, following a revised value of 2.5 points in March, and is consequently still robust, despite the economic situation.

Following pessimistic economic forecasts and slumps in production and exports, economic expectations have declined somewhat in March. Income expectations and propensity to buy have decreased only slightly, and the latter in particular have remained at a good level. Consequently, the consumer climate in April is set to record only minimal losses."

 

February
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.6 2.0 2.3 2.2

For March
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The mood of German consumers is improving. Stable prices and the bonus for scrapping old cars have triggered a slight improvement in the consumer climate. Following the recent decline in economic and income expectations, both indi-cators were up for February. Buying propensity, which was up last month, declined only marginally and was higher than its level at the same time in the previous year. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.6 points for March 2009, following a revised value of 2.3 points in February."

January
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1

For February
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The consumer climate in Germany continues to remain stable, albeit at a low level. In spite of the financial and economic crisis, the propensity to buy has, surprisingly, increased considerably in January; however, both income and economic expectations are in decline. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.2 points in February, following a revised value of 2.2 points in January.

Recent sharp falls in the inflation rate are currently having a positive impact on the propensity to consume, with the result that the latter demonstrated strong growth at the start of this year. However, current announcements regarding cuts in working hours, compulsory leave and the threat of redundancies mean that unemployment is again a growing fear among the employed, and income expectations have declined for the second time in a row. Economic expectations in January have also once again fallen slightly below their record low of the previous month. Consequently, the consumer climate will also remain constant in February 2009."

December
22nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2

For January
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The consumer climate is also likely to remain stable in the new year, albeit at a low level. In spite of the financial crisis and its impact on the economy, German consumer propensity to buy was again up slightly in December. The overall indicator is forecasting a value of 2.1 points for January 2009 after a revised value of 2.1 points for December and consequently remains stable. However, both income and economic expectations declined.

Consumer propensity to buy benefited from the reduced rate of inflation to end 2008 slightly up. With this, consumer sentiment remains constant at the start of the new year, albeit at a low level. Reduced production, cuts in working hours and announcements of potential redundancies are increasingly leading to consumers feeling themselves to be personally affected by the crisis. For the first time after four consecutive rises, December has seen a perceptible decline in income expectations."

November
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.2 1.5 1.9 N/A

For December
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The financial crisis may have reached the real economy, but on the whole is not affecting consumer sentiment. Indeed, as in the previous month the consumer climate seems to again be making low level gains towards the end of the year. Both the rise in income expectations and the improved propensity to buy support this. In contrast, expectations regarding the economy continued their downward trend. The overall indicator is forecasting 2.2 points for December after a revised value of 1.9 points for November.

Germans’ economic expectations continued the downward trend. In November the indicator lost another 3.6 points to stand at -30.1 points. This is the lowest value since the start of the full Germany survey in 1991.

Sharply falling energy prices also ensured that income expectations in Germany continued their recovery at a low level in November as well.  For the fourth time in a row, the indicator made gains and now stands at -6.9 points. This month saw a 6-point rise. However, year-on-year the indicator is still down almost 7 points."

October
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.9 1.5 1.8 N/A
For November
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: HTML PDF
From the Release: In spite of the financial crisis and some turbulent times on the stock markets, the consumer climate for October appeared to stabilize at a low level. A slight rise in income expectations, in particular, associated with a decline in the propensity to save are also contributory factors. By contrast, economic expectations and the propensity to buy both fell. The indicator for November is therefore forecasting 1.9 points after a revised value of 1.8 points for October.
September
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.8 1.3 1.6 1.5

For October
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: News Release
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Falling oil prices curbed the downward trend in consumer mood in September, at least, for the moment. Both the economic outlook and income expectations have improved slightly and the propensity to buy recovered from its lowest point in three years. Subsequently, the consumer climate has shown signs of stabilization. The indicator for October is therefore forecasting 1.8 points after a revised value of 1.6 points in September. Despite the current stabilization, in view of recent events on the financial markets, GfK does not anticipate any further growth in consumption in real terms this year and is consequently revising its forecast from 0.5% to 0%."