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Consumer Confidence

Countries measure the mood of their consumers by surveying consumer attitudes regarding present economic conditions each month. Consumer spending usually makes up two-thirds of GDP in a developed economy, and therefore is important to monitor. Consumer confidence also affects stock and bond markets, and can give insight into consumers reactions to any economic shocks. The general method in scoring the confidence level is through household surveys conducted monthly. Some use preliminary estimates which surveys fewer households at the beginning of the month, and a final survey that encompasses a larger sample pool towards the end of the month.

Main Indicator: Consumer Confidence

Most Recent Release

March
30th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-34

-33

N/A

For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Table of Past Data

	6/27	7/30	8/29	9/29	10/30	11/27	1/8	1/29	2/26	3/30

Actual	-17	-20	-19	-19	-24	-25	-30	-31	-33	-34
Forecast	-16	-18	-20	-19	-21	-25	-26	-31	-31	-33
Previous	-15	-17	-20	-19	-19	-24	-25	-30	-31	-33
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

February
26th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-33

-31

N/A

For February
Provided by: European Commission
Previous Release: PDF

January
29th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-31

-30

N/A

For January
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

January
8th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-30

-26

-25

N/A

For December
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

The European recession continues to pick up steam an end of the month report from the European Commission showed. Economic sentiment among consumers, and the industrial and services sectors all deteriorated. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest on record and unemployment rose to a two-year high. With companies cutting back their labor force in response to weak global and domestic demand, households are becoming more and more worried about their economic condition and future. With the economic situation getting significantly worse, the ECB will have to move to lower borrowing costs in an attempt to open up frozen credit markets. The US has already moved to a zero interest rate policy and the ECB was hoping to maintain rates at somewhere near their current rate. Those plans seem to be going out the window and is was reflected in the forex markets by a sharp drop in the value of the Euro to start the week.

November
27th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-25

-24

N/A

For November
Provided by: European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs
Previous Release: PDF

October
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-24

-21

-19

N/A

For October
Provided by: European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs
Official Release: PDF

September
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-19

N/A

For September
Provided by: European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs
Official Release: (PDF)

The European Commission's measure of consumer confidence a component within its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), remained unchanged at -19 for the Euro Area. after easing for the first time in a year in August, edging up to -19 from July's -20. However, in September, other components of the ESI continued their slide; industry at -19 from -9, services at 0 from 1, construction at -16 from -13, with retail trade the lone gainer at -8 from -10.

August
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-19

-20

N/A

For August
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

See "Economic Sentiment Indicator" for commentary.

July
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-20

-18

-17

N/A

For July
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services Confidence: 1, forecast 8, pr. 9 (Jun), 8 (May), 7 (Apr), 9 (Mar),
Industrial Confidence: -8, forecast -7, pr. -5 (Jun), -2 (May), -2 (Apr), -1 (Mar)

See Economic Sentiment Indicator for commentary.

June
27th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-17

-16

-15

N/A

For June
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services Confidence: 9, pr. 8 (May), 7 (Apr), 9 (Mar),
Industrial Confidence: -5, pr. -2 (May), -2 (Apr), -1 (Mar)

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a compilation of indexes of various sectors. It fell to 94.9 the lowest since May 2005, pushed down by decreases in the industrial, consumer, retail trade, and construction sectors. Services managed to improve. An increasingly pessimistic European consumer, facing rising inflation for energy and food, will start spending less on other goods, lowering domestic demand just as a high Euro and weakening global growth slows gains in the exports industry. The European economy will be facing periods of stagflation now. The ECB is set to raise rates in order to try and fight off inflation, but that will only add more strain to domestic firms and consumers.

From the Release: " In June, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) continued to decline in both the EU and the euro area. It fell by 2.5 points in the EU and by 2.7 points in the euro area, to 94.6 and 94.9 respectively. In both regions, the ESI remains below its long-term average.

The sectoral developments in the two areas were broadly similar and were characterised by a fall in all
confidence indicators except for services, which increased slightly. The decline in confidence in the
manufacturing sector was more marked in the euro area than in the EU.