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Consumer Confidence
Countries measure the mood of their consumers by surveying consumer attitudes regarding present economic conditions each month. Consumer spending usually makes up two-thirds of GDP in a developed economy, and therefore is important to monitor. Consumer confidence also affects stock and bond markets, and can give insight into consumers reactions to any economic shocks. The general method in scoring the confidence level is through household surveys conducted monthly. Some use preliminary estimates which surveys fewer households at the beginning of the month, and a final survey that encompasses a larger sample pool towards the end of the month.

Main Indicator: WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m

Most Recent Release

March
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-9.1% -2.0% -5.5% N/A

For March

Australian consumer confidence plunged to a near 15-year low in March. The Westpac-Melbournce Instititue consumer sentiment index fell 9.1%, undershooting expectations of an improvement from Tuesday. The fall in the indicator in the last 3 months has been rather steep showing consumers becoming more pessimistic about higher interest rates and a steep fall in the stock market.

The news, along with a bigger than expected slowdown in GDP, most likely implies an end to the interest rate hiking campaign that the Reserve Bank of Australia has pursued in order to combat inflation. The Aussie has been on an uptrend in February vs the Dollar as the markets prices in the interest rate increases. The pair hit 0.9500 at the end of February, and is now heading back downward in the US Dollar's favor. The last two weeks may represent just a correction to the previous uptrend, though if the inflation comes down, and growth falters, the RBA may be forced to think about lowering rates in the future.

Next Release Date: May 20th 2008, 20:30 EST

Table of Past Data

2/136/127/108/1410/911/1312/111/152/123/11
Actual1.70%-2.0%-0.6%-8.1%-0.3%-4.2%1.8%-8.3-5.5%-9.1%
Forecast-2.5%2.0%-2.0%-10.0%-2.0%
Previous7.30%7.5%-2.0%-0.6%4.2%-0.3%-4.2%1.8%-8.4%-5.5%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A-8.3%N/A

Past Releases

February
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5.5% -10.0% -8.4% -8.3%
For February
January
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.3 -2.0% 1.8% N/A
For January

The Westpac consumer confidence fell from 112.5 in December to 103.1 in January and showed the largest decline in 14 months. Mortgage rates and falling Australian stock market combined with concerns of a global slowdown caused respondents to be more pessimistic. Gasoline prices also muffled optimistic outlooks.
December
11th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.8% 2.0% -4.2% N/A
For December.
November
13th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4.2% -2.5% -0.3% N/A
The Westpac Melbourne Institute (WMI) Consumer Sentiment for November.
October
9th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% 4.2% N/A
For October.

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence indicator moved into negative territory in October. The survey was conducted after the country's central bank held interest rates steady. The fall in confidence was led by expectations to family finances (-4.1%), and by weaker consumer sentiment brought about by higher mortgage and rent costs.
August
14th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.1% -0.6% N/A
July
10th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -2.0% N/A
June
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.0% 7.5% N/A
February
13th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.70% 7.30% N/A

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