For September
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 58.8, pr. 65.0 r (Aug), 65.8 (Jul), 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May)
Expectations Index: 60.5, pr. 54.1 (Aug), 42.7 (Jul), 41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May)

US consumer confidence edger higher again in September, after a modest bounce in August. The present situation index fell lower, but future expectations for the economy grew. The data did not capture the last week and the turbulence seen in financial markets and on Wall Street with the failure of lawmakers to pass the $700 billion rescue plan.  

Current Index: 75.0, pr. 71.0 (Aug), 73.1 (Jul), 67.6 (Jun)
Expectations: 67.2, pr. 57.9 (Aug), 53.5 (Jul), 49.2 (Jun)
12-Mo Infl.: 4.3%, pr. 4.8% (Aug), 5.1% (Jul), 5.1% (Jun)
5-Yr Infl.: 3.0%, pr. 3.2% (Aug), 3.2% (Jul), 3.4% (Jun)

From the Release: "Prior to the events of the past week, consumer confidence appeared to have reached its
cyclical low. That changed dramatically. “Consumers have expressed heightened apprehensions about prospects for
the economy due to the escalating financial crisis adding to the steep declines recorded over the past year,” according
to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The renewed declines
reflect the dire economic predictions from the President, the Treasury Secretary, and the Fed Chairman. “These grim
economic prospects were not unexpected since consumers believed the economy was already in recession, but the
language used by the officials to describe the extent and depth of the financial crisis was nonetheless alarming to
consumers,” Curtin added.

The warnings of the economic policy makers had the effect of reducing confidence in financial institutions
as well as in the ability of the real economy to withstand the financial crisis. “However important the explanation is
for the passage of the bailout, lost confidence cannot be easily regained; confidence can be only restored slowly
through experience,” Curtin said. Now the only issue is how deep and how long will the cutbacks in spending last.
“The upcoming holiday shopping season will be swamped by financial turbulence, with holiday retail sales posting
the lowest growth rates in decades,” according to Curtin.

The gains recorded through most of September, largely due to lower inflation, were not offset by growing
apprehensions during the last week of the month. The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 70.3 in September, up from
63.0 in August, but substantially below the 83.4 recorded last September and the peak of 96.9 in January 2007. The
Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators that is
noted for its ability to foreshadow recessions, was 67.2 in September, up from 57.9 in August, but it remained below
the 74.1 recorded last September and the peak of 87.6 in January 2007."

Final Version for August
Provided by: Reuters
July's Release: PDF

Current Index: 71.0, prel. 69.3, pr. 73.1 (Jul), 67.6 (Jun), 73.3 (May)
Expectations: 57.9, prel. 56.8, pr. 53.5 (Jul), 49.2 (Jun), 51.1 (May)
12-Mo Infl. Forecast: 4.8%, prel. 4.8%, pr. 5.1% (Jul), 5.1% (Jun)
5-Yr Infl. Forecast: 3.2%, prel. 3.2%, pr. 3.2% (Jul), 3.4% (Jun)

Consumer confidence improved to 63.0 for the August period, from its 61.7 seen in the preliminary release. In July confidence measured 61.2. The current conditions and expectations components both improved compared to the preliminary release, while the inflation forecasts remained the same.

For August
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 63.2, pr. 65.8 R (Jul), 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May)
Expectations Index: 52.8, pr. 42.7 R (Jul), 41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May)

Consumer confidence measured by the Conference Board has bottomed off and has improved slightly for 2 straight months. The data is indicative of a neutral sentiment among consumers, a notch better than it had been all year. Lynn Frano Director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center noted, "Declines in the Present Situation Index, both in terms of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating. The Expectations Index, which posted a significant gain this month, suggests better times may be ahead. However, overall readings are still quite low by historical standards and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."

August's improvement is an important bridge to any recovery in consumer confidence. The drop off of oil prices calmed speculations that it could reach $200/bbl. House prices look to have bottomed. The rhetoric these days seem to be more on when a recovery will happen instead of how bad will the slowdown will be. Although the market is still skittish about the health of some key financial players such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.

For July
Provided by: Conference Board
Current Release: (HTML)

Present Situation Index: 65.3 pr. 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May), 81.9 (Apr), 90.6 (Mar)
Expectations Index: 43.0 pr. 41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May), 50.0 (Apr), 49.4 (Mar)

July's Conference Board Consumer Confidence figures reflect some stabilizing in the attitudes towards the current economic slowdown and inflation. This compares to Friday's Umich consumer sentiment index which surprisingly rebounded for July. Under the expectations of further deterioration, this report came as a pleasant improvement. However, consumers' feelings on present day conditions as well as outlooks are still pessimistic.

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions remained quite bleak in July. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased slightly to 32.8 percent from 31.9 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" rose to 13.1 percent from 11.5 percent last month. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market remained negative. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" edged up to 30.3 percent from 29.7 percent in June, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 13.5 percent from 14.1 percent.

Consumers' outlook, while slightly improved from last month, continues to be very pessimistic. Consumers anticipating business conditions to worsen over the next six months eased to 32.4 percent from 33.5 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve edged up to 9.3 percent from 8.5 percent in June.

The outlook for the labor market remains gloomy. The percent of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 37.1 percent from 35.7 percent, while those anticipating more jobs remained virtually unchanged at 8.2 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 14.2 percent from 13.1 percent.

Final Version for July
Provided by: Reuters
Official Release: PDF

Current Index: 73.1, prel. 69.5, pr. 67.6 (Jun), 73.3 (May), 77.0 (Apr)
Expectations: 53.5, prel. 48.3, pr. 49.2 (Jun), 51.1 (May), 53.3 (Apr)
12-Mo Inflation Forecast: 5.1%, prel. 5.3%, pr. 5.1% (Jun), 5.2% (May), 4.8% (Apr)
5-Yr Inflation Forecast: 3.2%, prel. 3.4%, pr. 3.4% (Jun), 3.4% (May), 3.2% (Apr)

The University of Michigan consumer confidence surprised forecasts and improved in the final version for July, compared to the preliminary release. Both current and future expectations saw an increase though the gains may be a temporary bounce as consumers may have at first overestimated how conditions were. Inflation expectations also came down, a boost for consumers, but lower inflation means the Fed has less concern about raising rates. Of course expectations about inflation and the actual figures differ and th2 12-month remains above 5% a very high level. The Fed has tried to convey recently that it wants to raise rates to show their commitment to fighting inflation.

With a better than expected new home sales and durable goods orders figures coming out today as well the Dollar recovered some of its overnight losses and was trading stronger overall in the NY session. 

From the Release: "Consumer confidence rose by a surprising amount in July, with gains posted across all income and age groups as well as among all regions of the country. "Even after the small July gain, the overall level of consumer confidence is dismal and still points toward declines in the pace of spending in late 2008 and early 2009," according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The gains could signal that consumers simply overestimated the extent of the economic damage or even that they now sense that the end of the economy's decline is on the distant horizon. "It is more likely that the gains in confidence reflect a "dead cat bounce," a phenomena has been repeatedly observed over the past fifty years: following a steep decline in confidence a small gain is recorded before confidence resumes its downward slide," Curtin explained.

The extent of the economic damage reported by consumers remained sizable. More than half of all consumers reported that their financial situation worsened due to higher food and fuel prices and half anticipated that their overall living standards would decline in the year ahead. While the anticipated declines in inflation-adjusted incomes were mainly due to higher expected inflation, consumers also anticipate shorter work hours, fewer bonuses, and smaller wage gains." 

Current Index: 67.6, pr. 73.3 (May), 77.0 (Apr), 84.2 (Mar)
Expectations: 49.2, pr. 51.1 (May), 53.3 (Apr), 60.1 (Mar)
12-Mo Inflation Forecast: 5.1%, pr. 5.2% (May), 4.8% (Apr), 4.3% (Mar)
5-Yr Inflation Forecast: 3.4%, pr. 3.4% (May), 3.2% (Apr), 2.9% (Mar)

From the Release: "Consumer confidence fell to near its fifty year low due to soaring prices and mounting job losses. “Surging gas prices, high food prices, disappearing jobs, declining home values, and record foreclosures were cited by consumers as the basis for their pessimism, and most consumers expected each of these problems to continue to worsen in the months ahead,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Steep declines in the Expectations Index, which has been recorded since the start of 2007, has always been associated with subsequent recessions. The extent of the decline in consumer spending is likely to be relatively small. In the eleven recessions since 1945, consumption has declined in just two years, by -0.8% in 1974 and by -0.3% in 1980. “The data indicate that growth in consumption spending will be under 1.0% in 2008, with the pace weakening until the Spring of 2009. The risks of a deeper and longer downturn, however, can no longer be easily dismissed,” Curtin said."

"This month's Consumer Confidence Index is the fifth lowest reading ever. Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions continues to grow more negative and suggests the economy remains stuck in low gear. Looking ahead, consumers' economic outlook is so bleak that the Expectations Index has reached a new all-time low. Perhaps the silver lining to this otherwise dismal report is that Consumer Confidence may be nearing a bottom."

Final version for May
Provided by: Reuters
Official Release: PDF

Current Index: 73.3, pr. 77.0 (Apr), 84.2 (Mar)
Expectations: 51.1, pr. 53.3 (Apr), 60.1 (Mar)
12-Mo Inflation Forecast: 5.2%, pr. 4.8% (Apr), 4.3% (Mar)
5-Yr Inflation Forecast: 3.4%, pr. 3.2% (Apr), 2.9% (Mar)

The final version of the UMich consumer sentiment for May showed a slight improvement from the preloiminary release, but is still down from APril's 62.6. Despite the slight uptick between the two releases the reading is the lowest in 28 years, while inflation expectations are the highest since 1982. The Dollar was pressured following the release, with the EUR/USD pair testing its session high near 1.5540.

From the Release: "Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the June 1980 survey. The decline was due to surging food and fuel prices, falling home prices, shrinking employment and smaller income gains. “Consumers are painfully aware that their living standards are shrinking under the weight of higher food and fuel prices and see little hope for improvement any time soon,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Consumers’ ability to buy has been diminished by smaller income gains, fewer jobs, higher prices of necessities, falling home prices, rising credit standards, and record levels of outstanding debt. Consumers have become more cautious spenders and are determined to rebuild their reserve funds. “For consumers to increase their savings as well as cope with the higher costs of food and fuel will require a prolonged shift in budgets away from discretionary spending,” Curtin said."

The Conference Board's measure of consumer fell for the 5th straight month, with both present and expectations indexes declining. The index is at a 16-year low, as Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center explained:

"The Consumer Confidence Index now stands at a 16-year low (Oct. 1992, 54.6). Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers' confidence in the overall state of the economy. Consumers' inflation expectations, fueled by increasing prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead. As for the short-term outlook, the Expectations Index suggests little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead."

For April
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 80.7, pr. 90.6
Expectations Index: 50.1, pr. 49.4

Sentiments among American consumers fell further in April extending a sharp downtrend since April last year. We have heard some talks that the worst could be behind us. If that is true, April's confidence reading should be the bottom. The next survey will reveal whether or not these recovery talks permeate the market and consumers. Above all, the employment report this Friday will be the focal point of discussion and the key component in assessments of economic growth in the upcoming months.

From the Release: Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's decline in Consumer Confidence was the result of yet another sharp decline in the Present Situation Index. This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over into the second quarter, but that economic conditions may have slowed even further. And, not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns. Consumers' inflation expectations continue to rise and this measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The percentage of respondents intending to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year low, another sign of consumers turning more cost conscious. Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for the economy, the job market and their income prospects remains quite pessimistic and little changed from last month. Or, in other words, the glass remains half empty."

For April
Provided by: Reuters

Current Index: 77.0, pr. 84.2 (Mar)
Expectations: 53.3, pr. 60.1 (Mar)
12-Mo Inflation Forecast: 4.8%, pr. 4.3% (Mar)
5-Yr Inflation Forecast: 3.2%, pr. 2.9% (Mar)

The final version of the UMich consumer sentiment index slipped to 62.6 from March's 69.5. The preliminary release saw the index decline to 63.2. 9 out of 10 respondents said the economy was in recession, and inflation expectations deteriorated in the face of higher gasoline and food prices. Also, many plan to spend their money from the government stimulus package to pay down debt or to save, meaning the effect on the economy will be limited from the plan. The survey is not always indicative of what will happen in the economy, but today's report casts a somber picture of consumer's moods.

From the Release:

"Consumer confidence sank to a quarter century low in the April 2008 survey. The decline was due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and falling home values. “The recent acceleration in the loss in confidence indicates a longer and potentially deeper recession,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Rising inflation, higher joblessness, and smaller income gains has made most consumers more cautious spenders. “Rising uncertainty about future living standards has caused consumers to adopt more prudent spending plans and become more wary of incurring new debt,” Curtin said."

Final for March
Provided by: Reuters
February's Release: Press Release - PDF

From the Release:

"Consumers Think Economy is Now in Recession

ANN ARBOR. Consumer confidence slipped in March due to growing concerns about weakening prospects
for the economy as well as anticipated increases in unemployment and inflation during the year ahead. “A recession has occurred whenever the Sentiment Index has declined as much as it has fallen during the past year, including the recessions occurring from the mid 1950's to the early 2000's,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The latest survey found that consumers were nearly unanimous in the opinion that the economy had already slipped into recession. Consumers have adopted much more cautious spending plans, shifting more toward repaying debts and rebuilding their savings.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 69.5 in the March 2008 survey, just below the 70.8 in February, and significantly below the 88.4 recorded last March and the recent peak of 96.9 recorded in January of 2007. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 60.1 in the March 2008 survey, down from 62.4 in February, and well below the 78.7 recorded in March 2007 and the recent peak of 87.6 in January 2007. From the January 2007 peak, the Expectations Index has fallen 31%; the Expectations Index fell by 24% prior to the 1990 recession and by 30% prior to the 2001 recession."

Last month's Capsule comments (Feb 29th):

"Consumer sentiment plunged from 78.4 in January to an upwardly revised 70.8 in February. The situations that households are reporting reflect those during the worst of the 1991 recession.

"Four-in-ten households reported that their finances had worsened and just one-in-five expected their finances to improve during the year ahead. These financial setbacks were caused by higher inflation, weakened job growth, and falling home prices."

Final Version for February

Official Release from Reuters

Consumer sentiment plunged from 78.4 in January to an upwardly revised 70.8 in February. The situations that households are reporting reflect those during the worst of the 1991 recession.

"Four-in-ten households reported that their finances had worsened and just one-in-five expected their finances to improve during the year ahead. These financial setbacks were caused by higher inflation, weakened job growth, and falling home prices."

Outlooks about the tax rebate package are dominated by 63% of the respondents, feeling it would not have much impact on the economy. According to Reuters, the distribution of this and other responses during the survey is very close to those in the 2001 recession.

Bush's attempt to calm the public will not be supported by this ongoing trend of deteriorating indexes, and poor sentiments, and weakening economic data. The market should be paying close attention to the labor market and whether that can hold up the shaky economy.

For February
Provided by: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, declined to 75, a five-year low. The Expectations index declined to 57.9 from 69.3. The Present Situation index decreased to 100.6 from 114.3 in January. Worsening conditions for consumers, as a result of a loosening labor market, and less favorable business conditions are a poor indicator for the economy. As the Dollar had already declined considerably overnight, and during early NY trading leading up to the release, it's results did not have a big impact. 

"Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The Consumer Confidence Index continues losing ground and, with the exception of the Iraqi War in 2003, is now at its lowest level in nearly fifteen years (Nov. 1993, 71.9). The weakening in consumers' assessment of current conditions, fueled by a combination of less favorable business conditions and a sharp rise in the number of consumers saying jobs are hard to get, suggests that the pace of growth in early 2008 has slowed even further. Consumers' expectations have also deteriorated significantly and are now at a seventeen-year low (Jan. 1991, 55.3). With so few consumers expecting conditions to turnaround in the months ahead, the outlook for the economy continues to worsen and the risk of a recession continues to increase.""

Final Version for January
Release from Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

The Umich/Reuter's survey showed consumers cutting back on spending due to higher food, heating costs, combined with lower stock and housing prices. Richard Curtin, the Director of the Survey noted

"There was little comfort in the fact that consumer confidence increased slightly in the January survey since the largest proportion of consumers in nearly two decades reported financial distress, especially households with incomes below $75,000."

 Also, the word recession is worrying many about the economy this year. Half of all consumers expected the unemployment rate to rise. With these prospects in mind, attitudes toward big-ticket item purchases such as vehicles was the least favorable since the 1990-1991 recession.

For January
Provided by the Conference Board

Expectations Index: 69.6, pr. 75.8
Present Situation Index: 115.3, pr. 112.9

"Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "The modest improvement in Consumer Confidence last month was short-lived. Consumers' appraisal of current business conditions is becoming more negative and their assessment of the job market, while slightly less negative than in December, is more negative than a year ago. Looking ahead, consumers are quite downbeat about the short-term future and a greater proportion expect business conditions and employment to deteriorate further in the months ahead. In addition, the percentage of consumers anticipating an improvement in their earnings has declined and could potentially impact spending decisions.""