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Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

October
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-59.1B -59.5B -61.3B -62.2B

For August
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Current Release: HTML

Exports m/m: -2.0%, pr. 3.3% (Jul), 4.0% (Jun), 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr)
Imports m/m: -2.4%, pr. 3.9% (Jul), 1.8% (Jun), 0.3% (May), 4.5% (Apr)

The US trade deficit shrank in August as both exports and imports fell. Imports were down as oil prices decreased, and there was less crude oil purchased amid a weakening economy. The trade deficit amounted to $59.14 billion, a 3.5% decrease from July's revised figure. With the US' major trading partners slowing US exports declined by 2%. The trade deficit shrank with Japan, the Euro-area, and Canada, though rose against China.

Table of Past Data

1/112/143/114/105/96/107/118/129/1110/10
Actual-63.1B-58.8B-58.2B-62.3B-58.2B-60.9B-59.8B-56.8B-62.2B-59.1B
Forecast-59.5B-61.8B-59.5B-57.4B-61.4B-59.5B-62.2B-61.8B-58.0B-59.5B
Previous-57.8B-63.1B-57.9B-58.2B61.7B-56.5B-60.5B-59.2B-58.8B-61.3B
Revised FromN/AN/A-58.8BN/A-62.3B-58.2B-60.9-59.8B-56.8-62.2B

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Past Releases

September
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-62.2B -58.0B -58.8B -56.8

For July
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Current Release: (HTML)

Exports m/m: 3.3%, pr. 4.0% (Jun), 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr), -1.7% (Mar)
Imports m/m: 3.9%, pr. 1.8% (Jun), 0.3% (May), 4.5% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar)

The US trade deficit widened more than forecast in July, posting a $62.2 billion gap between imports and exports. Imports were up 3.9% as the price of oil climbed which resulted in $42.6 billion of spending on crude oil. That pressure shoudl be allieviated in August as oil prices retreated. In a seperate release today it was shown that import prices fell 3.7% in August to bolster that view. Exports were up 3.3%.

The USD/JPY was weaker overnight and extended its fall following the trade release, which pressured the greenback.  

From the Release: "The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total July exports of $168.1 billion and imports of $230.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $62.2 billion, up from $58.8 billion in June, revised. July exports were $5.4 billion more than June exports of $162.8 billion. July imports were $8.7 billion more than June imports of $221.6 billion."

August
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-56.8B -61.8B -59.2B -59.8B

For June
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Current Release: (HTML)

Exports m/m: 4.0%, pr. 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr), -1.7% (Mar)
Imports m/m: 1.8%, pr. 0.3% (May), 4.5% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar)

Exports surged in June and unexpectedly narrowed the trade gap by 4.1% to $56.77B from a deficit of $59.2B in May. Exports totaled a record $164.4B while imports totaled $221.2. Exports grew 4.0%, the fastest pace since Feb. 2004. The weaker Dollar was most likely a key driver of export growth, which has partly propped up the US economy during the last quarter. The import figure reflected a record amount dedicated to purchases of foreign petroleum ($44.5B), and record purchases of industrial supplies from overseas, and outlays for foreign-made autos and parts. 

If prices are taken out of the equation, the trade deficit narrowed to $39.1B, the lowest since Dec 2001. It was $43.5B in May. Since this number is used in calculating GDP growth, it may be a reason to revise expectations upward. 

July
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-59.8B -62.2B -60.5B -60.9

For May
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports m/m: 0.9%, pr. 3.3% (Apr), -1.7% (Mar)
Imports m/m: 0.3%, pr. 4.5% (Apr), -2.9% (Mar)

The US trade deficit shrank 1.2% in May to $59.8 billion from a revised $60.5 billion in April. Expectations had been for the deficit to widen. Exports increased 0.9%, most likely as a low Dollar helps makes American goods more competitive abroad. Imports increased at 0.3%, much lower than the rate of increase in April. Export growth has propped up the US economy as housing sinks and domestic spending continues to weak. 

The trade gap with China and OPEC countries widened, while trade deficits with Canada, Mexico, Japan and the EU all narrowed. Exports to Canada and the EU were at record lows.  

June
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-60.9B -59.5B -56.5B -58.2B

For April
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports m/m: 3.3% pr. -1.7%
Imports m/m: 4.5% pr. -2.9%

According to the BEA, exports of goods and services increase $5.0B to $155.5B, mostly coming from increases in goods exports, although services exports also increased. Under goods exports, capital goods, industrial supplies and materials as well as consumer goods were the bulk of it. Imports increased $9.4B to $216.4B, also mostly due to goods, and partially to services. Imports were led by that of industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; and consumer goods.
From the release:
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total April exports of $155.5 billion and imports of $216.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $60.9 billion, up from $56.5 billion in March, revised. April exports were $5.0 billion more than March exports of $150.6 billion. April imports were $9.4 billion more than March imports of $207.1 billion.
May
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-58.2B -61.4B 61.7B -62.3B

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports m/m:-1.7%     pr. 2.0%
Imports m/m:-2.9%     pr. 3.1%

The US trade defict narrowed more than expected. Both exports and imports shrank, making trading activity a lesser impact on GDP than at this point last year. Demand for US products declined, but was somewhat offset by an increase for food, feed, and beverages. Imports declined the fastest since December of 2001. As the consumers and businesses feel the pinch from the economic slowdown, demand for car and oil imports declined.

The dollar had been losing overnight, but pared some of the losses on the positive trade data. The caveat is that although the trade gap narrowed, the reason behind it was a decline in trade activity. That means the impact on the GDP is reduced. 

April
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-62.3B -57.4B -58.2B N/A

For February
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports m/m: 2.0%
Imports m/m: 3.1%

The US trade deficit widened unexpectedly in February to $62.3 billion. The change was led by an increase in imports of automobiles and machinery. Imports were up 3.1% overall, which was the biggest monthly gain in almost a year, and was a new record at $213.7 billion. Exports were up 2% (to $151.4 billion) boosted by sales of fuel oil, autos, food oils, and corn.

Increases to imports, like the one seen in February, will probably not be reproduced as the US economy continues to slip into recessionary conditions. Exports have been a bright spot US economic performance, but a global slowdown may impact foreign demand.

March
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-58.2B -59.5B -57.9B -58.8B
For January
Official Release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis

The trade deficit expanded, but at a lesser extent than economists had anticipated. Total Imports grew $2.7B while exports grew $2.4B.
February
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-58.8B -61.8B -63.1B N/A

For December
Official Release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis

"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total December exports of $144.3 billion and imports of $203.1 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.8 billion, down from $63.1 billion in November, revised. December exports were $2.2 billion more than November exports of $142.2 billion. December imports were $2.2 billion less than November imports of $205.3 billion.

The goods and services deficit was $711.6 billion in 2007, down from $758.5 billion in 2006. As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 5.1 percent in 2007, down from 5.7 percent in 2006."

The US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in December, as exports increased to another record, while imports decreased. The gap between imports and exports shrank 6.9%. The low value of the US Dollar abroad is helping US exports, as foreign consumers are buying up US-made goods. This growth is beneficial to the economy, and is helping to dent the US economy's slowdown. It is also the first time in 6 years that the trade balance improved for the entire year. 

January
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-63.1B -59.5B -57.8B N/A
For November
Official Release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis

The weaker dollar has made US exports more attractive in the global market especially in Asia as it grew 0.4% to $142.3 billion in November, setting another record high. Import surged even faster at 3.0% to $205.4 billion on the heels of record purchases of crude oil due to unprecedented prices.

The shortfall between the two have widened 9.3% in November, the most in two years according to Bloomberg news.

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