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Indicator Digest

Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

June
10th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.0B -6.4B -6.5B -6.6B

Visible Trade Balance for April
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Bal.: -3.0B, pr. -£2.5 (Mar), -£3.25B (Feb), -£3.58 (Jan),
-£3.61 (Dec), -£4.47B (Nov), -£3.86B (Oct), -£3.86B (Sep),
-£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

The UK trade gap in goods with the rest of the world widened in April. The deficit in goods rose to £7 billion from £6.5 billion, as exports rose 0.5% but imports grew 2.5%. The figure was weaker than expected. A cheaper Pound has helped boost exports to the nations in the European Union, but overall export growth seems disappointing. Global trade, at least in April, has retrenched as data from the US and other countries showed. Therefore the decline of sterling has not been sufficient to counteract the sharp fall in global trade of durable goods and raw materials as firms run down inventories.

Next Release Date: July 09th 2009, 4:30 EST

Table of Past Data

9/1010/911/1112/91/132/103/114/95/126/10
Actual-7.7B-8.19B-7.5B-7.8B-8.3B-7.4B-7.7B-7.3B-6.6B-7.0B
Forecast-7.5B-7.6B -8.0B-7.5B-7.6B-8.1B-7.5B-7.6B-7.2B-6.4B
Previous-8.0B-8.23B-8.2B-7.4B-7.6B-8.1B-7.2B-7.7B-7.3B-6.5B
Revised From-7.7BN/AN/A-7.5B-7.8B-8.3B-7.4BN/AN/A-6.6B

Past Releases

May
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.6B -7.2B -7.3B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for March
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Bal.: -£2.5, pr. -£3.25B (Feb), -£3.58 (Jan), -£3.61 (Dec),
-£4.47B (Nov), -£3.86B (Oct), -£3.86B (Sep), -£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul),
-£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

From the Release: "The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £2.5 billion in March, compared with the deficit of £2.8 billion in February (originally published as a deficit of £3.2 billion). The surplus on trade in services was £4.1 billion, the same as in February.

The deficit on trade in goods was £6.6 billion, compared with the deficit of £6.8 billion in February (originally published as a deficit of £7.3 billion). Exports fell by £0.1 billion, while imports fell
by £0.3 billion."

April
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.3B -7.6B -7.7B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for February
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Bal.: -£3.25B, pr. -£3.58 (Jan), -£3.61 (Dec), -£4.47B (Nov),
-£3.86B (Oct), -£3.86B (Sep), -£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun),
-£4.25B (May)

March
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.7B -7.5B -7.2B -7.4B

Visible Trade Balance for January
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.58 pr. -£3.61 (Dec), -£4.47B (Nov),  -£3.86B (Oct),
-£3.86B (Sep), -£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

The UK trade gap widened to £7.7 billion as exports to countries outside the European Union plummeted by 16%, with those heading to the US down 8.5%. Goods exported to EU countries saw an increase of 5.9% for the month. Though demand around the world is falling, the lower Pound should help British exports compete in overseas markets at a cheaper price. So far that effect has not showed up in trade figures, and if anything a cut back in imports will be the main driver for reducing the trade gap. 

February
10th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.4B -8.1B -8.1B -8.3B

Visible Trade Balance for December
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.61, forecast -£4.25B, pr. -£4.47B (Nov),  -£3.86B (Oct),
-£3.86B (Sep), -£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

From the Release: "The UK's deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.6 billion in December, compared with the deficit of £4.0 billion in November (originally published as a deficit of £4.5 billion).

The surplus on trade in services was £3.8 billion, compared with a surplus of £4.1 in November (originally published as a surplus of £3.9 billion).

The deficit on trade in goods was £7.4 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.1 billion in November (which was originally published as a deficit of £8.3 billion). Exports rose by less than £0.1 billion, and imports fell by £0.7 billion, largely reflecting a fall in imports from non-EU countries.

Excluding oil and erratic items, the volume of exports was
one per cent higher and imports were two per cent lower in December than in November.

Export and import prices were both a half per cent lower compared with November, partly reflecting lower fuel prices."

January
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.3B -7.6B -7.6B -7.8B

Visible Trade Balance for November
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.47B, forecast -£3.70B, pr. -£3.86B (Oct), -£3.86B (Sep),
-£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

The UK trade in goods deficit widened sharply in November, falling to 8.3 billion pounds, following a deficit of 7.7 billion pounds in October. That is the largest deficit since records began in 1697 and reflects a wider deficit with non-EU countries which reached its own record. A weaker pound did not help boost demand for UK exports, which fell 6% on the month. One major trading partner cutting back on buying UK goods was the US. The trade figures reinforce that growth in the UK will be very weak in the 4th quarter. Imports were down 2%.

December
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.8B -7.5B -7.4B -7.5B

Visible Trade Balance for October
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.86B, forecast -£4.20B, pr. -£3.86B (Sep),
-£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

From the Release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.8 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £7.4 billion in September (which was originally published as a deficit of £7.5 billion). Exports fell by £0.7 billion and imports fell by £0.3 billion.

The deficit with the EU was £3.4 billion in October, compared with a deficit of £2.8 billion in September. Exports fell by £1.0 billion and imports fell by £0.4 billion. There was a rise in exports of fuels other than oil. There were falls in exports of oil, food, drink and tobacco, and chemicals. There were falls in imports of intermediate goods, capital goods, and chemicals. The deficit with non-EU countries narrowed to £4.4 billion compared with the deficit of £4.6 billion in September."

November
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -8.0B -8.2B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for September
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.86B, forecast -£4.60B, pr. -£4.73B, -£4.46B (Jul),
-£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May), -£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

From the Release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.5 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.0 billion in August (which was originally published as a deficit of £8.2 billion). Exports rose by £0.6 billion and imports rose by £0.1 billion."

October
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.19B -7.6B -8.23B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for August
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.73B, forecast -£4.45B, pr. -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun),
-£4.25B (May), -£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

UK trade in goods fell into further deficit as the number for August matched the downwardly revised figure from July. Trade in goods showed a £8.2B deficit. Including both goods and services, the deficit was £4.73B. The figures were lower than economists had predicted and shows the strain on exports as a result of the global slowdown. Exports fell 4.5%, while imports decreased 3.5%. That means UK consumers and companies are spending less on foreign goods as well 

From the Release: "The UK’s deficit on trade in goods in August is provisionally estimated at £8.2 billion, unchanged compared with July. The deficit with EU countries in August was £3.0 billion, compared with £3.5 billion in July. The deficit with non-EU countries in August was £5.2 billion, compared with £4.8 billion in July.

In August, total exports of goods fell by four and a half per cent to £21.3 billion and total imports of goods fell by three and a half per cent to £29.5 billion. Exports to EU countries rose by one per cent while exports to non-EU countries fell by 11½ per cent. Imports from EU countries fell by one and a half per cent and imports from non-EU countries fell by five per cent.

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services is provisionally estimated to have narrowed in August to £4.7 billion from a deficit of £4.8 billion in July."

September
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.7B -7.5B -8.0B -7.7B

Visible Trade Balance for July
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.6B, forecast -£4.2B, pr. -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May),
-£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

From the Release: "The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £4.6 billion in July, compared with the revised deficit of £5.0 billion in June (originally published as a deficit of £4.4 billion).

The surplus on trade in services was £3.1 billion, compared with the surplus of £3.0 billion in June. The deficit on trade in goods was £7.7 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.0 billion in June (which was originally published as a deficit of £7.7 billion). Exports rose by £0.7 billion and imports rose by £0.4 billion."