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Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

December
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.8B -7.5B -7.4B -7.5B

Visible Trade Balance for October
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.86B, forecast -£4.20B, pr. -£3.86B (Sep),
-£4.73B (Aug), -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May)

From the Release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.8 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £7.4 billion in September (which was originally published as a deficit of £7.5 billion). Exports fell by £0.7 billion and imports fell by £0.3 billion.

The deficit with the EU was £3.4 billion in October, compared with a deficit of £2.8 billion in September. Exports fell by £1.0 billion and imports fell by £0.4 billion. There was a rise in exports of fuels other than oil. There were falls in exports of oil, food, drink and tobacco, and chemicals. There were falls in imports of intermediate goods, capital goods, and chemicals. The deficit with non-EU countries narrowed to £4.4 billion compared with the deficit of £4.6 billion in September."

Table of Past Data

3/124/105/126/117/98/119/1010/911/1112/9
Actual-7.5B-7.5B-7.44B-7.6B-7.5B-7.7B-7.7B-8.19B-7.5B-7.8B
Forecast-7.5B-7.6B-7.5B-7.3B-7.4B-7.4B-7.5B-7.6B -8.0B-7.5B
Previous-7.5B-7.9B-7.6B-7.1B-7.5B-7.4B-8.0B-8.23B-8.2B-7.4B
Revised From-7.6B-7.5B-7.5B-7.4B-7.6B-7.5B-7.7BN/AN/A-7.5B

Past Releases

November
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -8.0B -8.2B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for September
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£3.86B, forecast -£4.60B, pr. -£4.73B, -£4.46B (Jul),
-£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May), -£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

From the Release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.5 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.0 billion in August (which was originally published as a deficit of £8.2 billion). Exports rose by £0.6 billion and imports rose by £0.1 billion."

October
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8.19B -7.6B -8.23B N/A

Visible Trade Balance for August
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.73B, forecast -£4.45B, pr. -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun),
-£4.25B (May), -£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

UK trade in goods fell into further deficit as the number for August matched the downwardly revised figure from July. Trade in goods showed a £8.2B deficit. Including both goods and services, the deficit was £4.73B. The figures were lower than economists had predicted and shows the strain on exports as a result of the global slowdown. Exports fell 4.5%, while imports decreased 3.5%. That means UK consumers and companies are spending less on foreign goods as well 

From the Release: "The UK’s deficit on trade in goods in August is provisionally estimated at £8.2 billion, unchanged compared with July. The deficit with EU countries in August was £3.0 billion, compared with £3.5 billion in July. The deficit with non-EU countries in August was £5.2 billion, compared with £4.8 billion in July.

In August, total exports of goods fell by four and a half per cent to £21.3 billion and total imports of goods fell by three and a half per cent to £29.5 billion. Exports to EU countries rose by one per cent while exports to non-EU countries fell by 11½ per cent. Imports from EU countries fell by one and a half per cent and imports from non-EU countries fell by five per cent.

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services is provisionally estimated to have narrowed in August to £4.7 billion from a deficit of £4.8 billion in July."

September
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.7B -7.5B -8.0B -7.7B

Visible Trade Balance for July
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.6B, forecast -£4.2B, pr. -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May),
-£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar)

From the Release: "The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £4.6 billion in July, compared with the revised deficit of £5.0 billion in June (originally published as a deficit of £4.4 billion).

The surplus on trade in services was £3.1 billion, compared with the surplus of £3.0 billion in June. The deficit on trade in goods was £7.7 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.0 billion in June (which was originally published as a deficit of £7.7 billion). Exports rose by £0.7 billion and imports rose by £0.4 billion."

August
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.7B -7.4B -7.4B -7.5B

Visible Trade Balance for June
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
May's Release: PDF

Total Trade Bal.: -£4.41B, forecast -£4.2B, pr. -£4.25B (May), -£4.3B, -£4.03B

The UK trade deficit widened to £7.7 billion in June, larger than forecasts. Imports increased by £1.2 billion outpacing a rise in exports of £0.9 billion. The deficit with non-EU countries grew to £4.7 billion from £4.0 billion in May. The deficit with EU countries diminished, falling to £2.9 billion from £3.4 billion.

July
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -7.4B -7.5B -7.6B

Visible Trade Balance for May
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
April's Release: PDF

Total Trade Balance: -£4.25B, forecast -£4.00B, pr. -£4.3B, -£4.03B

The trade deficit in goods remained in May remained around its pace of last month, posting a -£7.5B figure. The trend has been flat recently, but with the Pound falling in value, the trade balance may improve in coming months. Prices for exports and imports both rose 2%. The total trade deficit which includes goods and services, was £4.2 billion.

June
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.6B -7.3B -7.1B -7.4B

Visible Trade Balance for April
Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF

Total Trade Balance: -£4.3B, forecast -£4.00B, pr. -£4.03B

In April, the UK trade in goods balance was in deficit of 7.6 billion pounds, compared with a downwardly revised 7.1 billion pounds in March. Imports outpaced exports. The Office of National Statistics said the latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficit has been fairly flat in recent months. The deficit with EU countries remained flat, while the deficit with non-EU countries widened.

From the release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.6 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £7.1 billion in March (which was originally published as a deficit of £7.4 billion). Exports rose by £0.7 billion but imports rose by £1.2 billion.

The surplus on trade in services was £3.3 billion, compared with a surplus of £3.4 billion in March."

 

May
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.44B -7.5B -7.6B -7.5B

Visible Trade Balance for March
Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Release: PDF 

Total Trade Balance: 4.03B, forecast -£4.4B, pr. -£4.33B

The UK global goods deficit narrowed from -£7.6 billion to -£7.4B. That is a seven month low. Imports declined 0.5% while exports were up 0.5%. Imports of airplanes, a rather volatile component, accounted for a good part of the imports decline. The weaker pound may be helping to benefit the export sectors in the UK, while weakening consumer confidence and spending may continue to put a dampen on imports, though items like airplanes are subject to companies spending. 

From the Release:

"The UK’s deficit on trade in goods in March is provisionally estimated at £7.4 billion, compared with £7.6 billion in February. The deficit with EU countries in March was £3.7 billion, compared with £3.5 billion in February. The deficit with non-EU countries in March was £3.8 billion, compared with £4.1 billion in February.

In March, total exports of goods rose by a half per cent to £20.1 billion while total imports of goods fell by a half per cent to £27.6 billion. Exports to EU countries rose a half per cent and exports to non-EU countries were virtually unchanged. Imports from EU countries rose one and a half per cent while imports from non-EU countries fell by two and a half per cent."

April
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -7.6B -7.9B -7.5B

Visible Trade Balance for February
Provided by: National Statistics Office

The trade deficit in the UK narrowed to 7.5 billion pounds from its downwardly revised figure in January. Exports fell 0.2 percent and imports declined 1.7 percent. The trade balance should be bolstered by a weakening Pound, which has begun falling as the central bank has begun cutting interest rates in an attempt to shore up economic growth. Manufacturing was at its strongest level since 2001. Sales of oil climbed to 2.5 billion pounds, the highest since monthly records began in 1980, Bloomberg reports.

March
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-7.5B -7.5B -7.5B -7.6B

Visible Trade Balance for January
Official Release from National Statistics Office

The UK trade deficit for January was 10 million pounds less than in December. The goods trade gap was 7.5 billion pounds, with exporters being helped by weaker levels of the Pound. The Pound drifted lower after the central bank lowered rates in an attempt to help boost growth. The weaker currency fueled exports to increase by 6.3%, with imports rising 4.4% for the period. Exports totaled 20 billion pounds, the highest since June 2006. Imports, at 27 billion pounds, was the highest in 19 months. The Bank of England is counting on export growth to help offset some of the decline to GDP that is sure to come from weaker domestic consumer spending. 

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