Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

July
22nd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.41B

1.62B

1.87B

N/A

For June

The Swiss trade surplus rose to a record in June, surprising forecasts. The surplus widened to 2.41 billion francs ($2.37 billion) but as a result of a bigger fall in imports compared to exports. Exports were down 1.8%, while imports declined 2%. Sales to the US are down 8.1% compared to last year, and exports to the UK are down 12% during that time reflecting those economies slowdowns and pullback in demand for foreign goods. Russia, China, and other emerging markets picked up the slack.

With the surplus coming as a result of lower activity, the better than expected result has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Table of Past Data

	10/18	11/20	12/20	1/29	2/21	3/20	4/22	5/27	6/19	7/22

Actual	1.80B	1.6B	1.89B	0.20B	1.22B	1.55B	1.25B	1.57B	1.87B	2.41B
Forecast	1.80B	1.5B	1.44B	0.95B	0.80B		0.70B	1.19B	1.58B	1.62B
Previous	0.59B	1.8B	1.40B	1.89B	0.20B	1.06B	1.55B	1.27B	1.53B	1.87B
Revised From	0.64B	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.18	N/A	N/A	1.25B	1.57B	N/A

Past Releases

June
19th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.87B

1.58B

1.53B

1.57B

for May

May
27th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.57B

1.19B

1.27B

1.25B

For April in Swiss Francs

The Swiss trade surplus widened in April to 1.566 billion Swiss francs. This was a big increase from the same time last year which saw a 628.2 million francs figure. Exports were up 18.3% on the year (for a total of 18.73B), while imports were up 19.9% (for a total of 17.16B).

The Swiss Franc was trading weaker against the Dollar, as today's trading saw a rebound in carry trade sentiment and a return to Dollar strength. Last week saw the USD/CHF fall 330 pips from its weekly high, and today's action may suggest a correction to the downward trend. It was a similar story against the Euro and Pound, though the Swiss Franc did continue its gains against the Yen, which saw overall weakness in the markets with risk appetite returning.

April
22nd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.25B

0.70B

1.55B

N/A

For March in Swiss Francs

March
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.55B

1.06B

N/A

For February in Swiss Francs

Exports m/m: pr. 0.2% (16.3 bn Francs)
Imports m/m: pr. 0.4% (15.1 bn Francs)

February
21st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.22B

0.80B

0.20B

0.18

For January in Swiss Francs

Exports m/m: 0.2% (16.3 bn Francs)
Imports m/m: 0.4% (15.1 bn Francs)

January
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.20B

0.95B

1.89B

N/A

For December in Swiss Francs

December
20th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.89B

1.44B

1.40B

N/A

For November

November
20th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.6B

1.5B

1.8B

N/A

For October.

October
18th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.80B

0.59B

0.64B