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Indicator Digest

Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

February
25th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
269M -99M -32M 2M

For January
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Exports: 3.15B, pr. 3.41B (Dec), 3.07B (Nov), 2.97MB (Oct),
2.8B (Sep), 2.74B (Aug), 3.18B (Jul), 3.20B (Jun), 3.96B (May),
3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan), 3.8B (Dec)
Imports: 2.88B, pr. 3.40B (Dec), 3.34B (Nov), 3.45B (Oct),
3.2B (Sept), 3.47B (Aug), 3.34B (Jul), 3.62B (Jun), 3.10B (May),
3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan), 4.2B (Dec)

From the Release: "The merchandise trade balance for January 2010 was a surplus of $269 million, Statistics New Zealand said today. “As a percentage of exports this is the biggest trade surplus for a January month since 1989,” business statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said. “Until this year, deficits had been recorded for the previous eight January months.”

Exports for January were $3.2 billion, down $19 million compared with January 2009, while imports were $2.9 billion, down $390 million. “Imports have fallen more than exports resulting in a net surplus,” Louise Holmes-Oliver said."

Table of Past Data

5/256/287/278/269/2410/2811/261/61/282/25
Actual276M858M-417M-163M-725M-424M-487M-269M2M269M
Forecast262M280M214M-139M-305M-681M-469M-397M-115M-99M
Previous447M319M907M-332M-175M-719M-563M-495M-269M-32M
Revised From324M276M858M-417M-163M-725M-424M-487M-276M2M

Past Releases

January
28th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2M -115M -269M -276M
January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-269M -397M -495M -487M

For November
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Exports: 3.07B, pr. 2.97MB (Oct), 2.8B (Sep), 2.74B (Aug), 3.18B (Jul),
3.20B (Jun), 3.96B (May), 3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb),
3.18B (Jan), 3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep)
Imports: 3.34B, pr. 3.45B (Oct), 3.2B (Sept), 3.47B (Aug), 3.34B (Jul),
3.62B (Jun), 3.10B (May), 3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb),
3.36M (Jan), 4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep)

November
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-487M -469M -563M -424M

For October
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Previous Release: HTML PDF

Exports: 2.97MB, pr. 2.8B (Sep), 2.74B (Aug), 3.18B (Jul), 3.20B (Jun),
3.96B (May), 3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan),
3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.45B, pr. 3.2B (Sept), 3.47B (Aug), 3.34B (Jul), 3.62B (Jun),
3.10B (May), 3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan),
4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

October
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-424M -681M -719M -725M

For September
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Exports: 2.8B, pr. 2.74B (Aug), 3.18B (Jul), 3.20B (Jun),
3.96B (May), 3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan),
3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.2B, pr. 3.47B (Aug), 3.34B (Jul), 3.62B (Jun),
3.10B (May), 3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan),
4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

From the Release: "In the month of September 2009, merchandise imports were valued at $3.2 billion, down $1.2 billion (26.6 percent) from September 2008. Excluding large one-off imports, they have now fallen by 19 percent or more for each of the last six months. Merchandise exports were valued at $2.8 billion in September 2009, down $347 million (10.9 percent) from September 2008, the fourth consecutive monthly fall in exports compared with the same month of the previous year." 

September
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-725M -305M -175M -163M
August
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-163M -139M -332M -417M

For July
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Previous Release: PDF

Exports: 3.18B, pr. 3.20B (Jun), 3.96B (May), 3.65B (Apr),
4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan), 3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov),
3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.34B, pr. 3.62B (Jun), 3.10B (May), 3.37B (Apr),
3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan), 4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov),
4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

July
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-417M 214M 907M 858M

For June
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official: PDF

Exports: 3.20B, pr. 3.96B (May), 3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar),
3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan), 3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct),
3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.62B, pr. 3.10B (May), 3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar),
2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan), 4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct),
4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

From the Release: "The value of seasonally adjusted exports and imports both fell in the June 2009 quarter, down 5.4 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, Statistics New Zealand said today. These falls followed decreases of 5.0 percent for exports and 13.7 percent for imports in the March 2009 quarter."

Exports were down 11% from a year earlier, while imports declined 5.1% on the year, dropping the trade balance to a NZ$417 million for June. Imports fell on reduced demand for crude oil, gasoline and passenger cars. Also airport imports, at NZ$632 million, were higher than usual. Exports were pressured by weaker commodity prices and a 25% appreciation of the New Zealand dollar against the US Dollar over the last six months. Prices are as much as 28% lower in June from a year earlier. 

June
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
858M 280M 319M 276M

For May
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official: PDF

Exports: 3.96B, pr. 3.65B (Apr), 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan),
3.8B (Dec), 3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.10B, pr. 3.37B (Apr), 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan),
4.2B (Dec), 4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

From the Release: "The trade balance for May 2009, when measured as a percentage of exports, recorded the largest surplus since June 1993, Statistics New Zealand said today. The surplus of $858 million, or 21.7 percent of exports, resulted from a large drop in imports combined with a moderate rise in exports."

May
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
276M 262M 447M 324M

For April
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Exports: 3.65B, pr. 4.04B (Mar), 3.46B (Feb), 3.18B (Jan), 3.8B (Dec),
3.69B (Nov), 3.83B (Oct), 3.17B (Sep), 3.6B (Aug)
Imports: 3.37B, pr. 3.72B (Mar), 2.97B (Feb), 3.36M (Jan), 4.2B (Dec),
4.21B (Nov), 4.78B (Oct), 4.35B (Sep), 4.32B (Aug)

From the Release: "The trade balance for April 2009 was a surplus of $276 million or 7.5 percent of the value of exports – the largest surplus for an April month since 2001. The trend for the trade balance has risen significantly over the past eight months. While still in deficit, the trade balance trend is at its highest level since April 2002.

The value of merchandise exports and imports both fell in April 2009 compared with April 2008, down 4.6 percent and 18.1 percent respectively, Statistics New Zealand said today.

The decrease in exports was led by crude oil, but was partly offset by increases in fruit, and meat and edible offal exports. The imports decrease is the largest since the series began (in dollar terms), but was primarily due to large, one-off capital items that were imported in April 2008. If these items were excluded, this month’s decrease would have been 7.3 percent. "