Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

June
26th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.19B

0.15B

-0.33B

N/A

For June
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release
Official Release: PDF

Exports: 3.92B, forecast 3.95B, pr. 3.80B (Apr), 3.44B (Mar)
Imports: 3.73B, forecast 3.70B, pr. 4.13B (Apr), 3.49B (Mar)

Both exports and imports rose for the ninth straight month. Exports surged 11.2% ($376million) to $3.7billion, the highest for a May month. Crude oil exports increased $142million. while meat and edible offal exports increased $117million. Imports increased an even greater amount, up 17.3%($580million) to $3.9billion. StatNZ also noted that over the past 10 years, May months have recorded a deficit only 3 times, all occurring in the past 4 years.

Next Release Date: July 27th 2008, 18:45 EST

Table of Past Data

	9/25	10/28	11/25	1/6	1/30	2/28	3/26	4/28	5/25	6/26

Actual	-0.94B	-0.54B	-0.69B	-0.65B	0.03B	-.32B	0.26B	-0.05B	-0.33B	-0.19B
Forecast	-99.B	-0.70B	-0.55B	-0.47B	-0.35B	-0.10B	0.18B	0.40B	-0.15B	0.15B
Previous	-0.79B	-0.95B	-0.54B	-0.72B	-0.65B	0.03B	-0.32B	0.26B	-0.04B	-0.33B
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.69B	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

May
25th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.33B

-0.15B

-0.04B

N/A

For April
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release
Official Release: PDF

Exports: 3.80B, forecast 3.48B, pr. 3.44B (Mar), 3.71B (Feb)
Imports: 4.13B, forecast 3.59B, pr. 3.49B (Mar), 3.45B (Feb)

The New Zealand trade deficit widened in April as imports jumped to NZ$4.13, outpacing the rise in exports to NZ$3.80B. For the year, these amount to 19.7% and 22% changes, respectively. Exports reached a new high. Imports were affected by two large purchases - an oil platform and an oil production vessel - a combined value of NZ$477.

From the Release: "Exports reached another new high in April 2008, the third in the last five months. April 2008 was also the eighth consecutive month to show significant increases (from the same month of the previous year) led by crude oil, and milk powder, butter and cheese. Crude oil exports were up $265 million to reach a record high of $311 million – this followed the March figure of $130 million, which was the lowest since production from the Tui oilfield began. Oil is exported and imported in large, irregular shipments and the timing of these can make a big difference to monthly figures. Milk powder, butter and cheese exports were up $131 million and contributed 19.6 percent of total exports for April 2008."

April
28th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.05B

0.40B

0.26B

N/A

For March
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release
Official Release: PDF

Exports: 3.44B, forecast 4.05B, pr. 3.71B (Feb), $3.1B (Jan)
Imports: 3.49B, forecast 3.64B, pr. 3.45B (Feb), $3.4B (Jan)

Imports increased in March, while exports declined surprising forecasts on the downside. The trade balance therefore deteriorated and showed a deficit of NZ$50 million. The figure was lower than the NZ$400 million expected by economists.

From the Release:

"In the month of March 2008, merchandise exports were valued at $3.4 billion, up 3.7 percent from March 2007. For the seventh consecutive month, the same two commodity groups led the increase in exports; milk powder, butter and cheese, and crude oil combined were up $262 million. However, exports of all other commodities combined decreased 5.2 percent compared with March 2007.

In the month of March 2008, imports increased 7.1 percent, led by increases in crude oil; food residues; wastes and fodder; and vehicles, parts and accessories."

March
26th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.26B

0.18B

-0.32B

N/A

For February
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
January's Release: PDF

Exports: 3.71B, pr. $3.1B (Jan), $3.08B (Dec)
Imports: 3.45B, $3.4B (Jan). $3.64B (Dec)

From Statistics Newzealand:

Merchandise exports were up 30.3 percent ($864 million), the largest percentage rise for any month since January 2001 and the largest value increase ever.

New Zealand's whopping export growth is due to booming demand for its commodities in the primary market, notably petroleum and dairy products. Exports of petroleum and petro products had the largest annual increase in value. Just to give you a sense of how much the surging commodity prices had to do with NZ's export growth; Exports of dairy products rose 69.1% in value, but only with a 1.5% increase in quantity.

February
28th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-.32B

-0.10B

0.03B

N/A

For January
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

Exports: $3.1B, pr. $3.68B
Imports: $3.4B, pr. $3.64B

January
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.03B

-0.35B

-0.65B

N/A

For December
Provided by Statistics New Zealand (.pdf)

Imports: 3.67B, pr. 3.95B (Nov), 4.1B (Oct), 3.55B (Sept)
Exports: 3.7B, pr. 3.30B (Nov), 3.41B (Oct), pr. 3.01B (Sept)

Exports surged to NZ$3.7B, up 24.8 percent from December 2006. It was a record for a single month. Gains to exports were led by increases to exports of milk powerder, butter and cheese, which exceeded 1 billion for the first time. Imports declined from last month, also helping to bring the Trade Balance into the black for the first time since July.

January
6th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.65B

-0.47B

-0.72B

-0.69B

For November.
Official Release from Statistics New Zealand

November
25th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.69B

-0.55B

-0.54B

N/A

For October.
Provided by Statistics New Zealand

Imports m/m: 4.1B (Oct), forecast 3.62B, pr. 3.55B (Sept)
Exports m/m: 3.41B (Oct), forecast 3.10B, pr. 3.01B (Sept)

Imports increased $223 million, increasing 5.7% for October compared to September. It was the highest value for any month. The monthly trade deficit grew by $150m, reaching $690.

On the year, exports are up $706m compared to October 2006, which is an increase of 26%.

October
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.54B

-0.70B

-0.95B

N/A

For September

According to StatNZ, the trade balance for September 2007 was a deficit of $544 million (18.1 percent of exports). Merchandise exports recorded its highest September figures at $3.0 billion.

September
25th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.94B

-99.B

-0.79B

N/A

For August.

Imports: 3.60B, forecast 3.50B, prev. 3.43B
Exports: 2.66B, forecast 2.55B, prev. 2.64B

The value of exports to Australia in August registered a record high. Crude oil exports also recorded its highest value ever.
,
On the year, from August 2006, merchandise exports declined 2.7% or $74million, while imports declined 2.2% or $80million.