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Main Indicator: Trade Balance
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 18.1B | 15.5B | 14.6B | N/A | ||
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For June
(s.a.)
Imports m/m: 0.1%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 0.7% (May), -2.1% (Apr), 0.6%
(Mar)
Exports picked up in Germany over June, after a May that saw a 3.2% decline. With import growth remaining flat, the trade balance showed a seasonally adjusted 18.1 billion surplus. Demand from Russian and China offset weaker sales in other markets like the US. The better than expected data is one bit of good - but dated - news for a German economy which has seen recent demand for foreign orders slipping.
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Table of Past Data
| 11/8 | 12/10 | 1/9 | 2/8 | 3/10 | 4/9 | 5/8 | 6/9 | 7/9 | 8/7 | ||
| Actual | 18.1B | 18.7B | 19.3B | 10.8B | 17.1B | 16.9B | 16.7B | 18.7B | 14.4B | 18.1B | |
| Forecast | 15.0B | 16.8B | 17.5B | 16.8B | 15.2B | 15.7B | 16.9B | 15.6B | 17.4B | 15.5B | |
| Previous | 14.1B | 18.1B | 18.9B | 19.3B | 10.7B | 17.1B | 16.9B | 16.6B | 18.7B | 14.6B | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 18.7B | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 16.7B | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 14.4B | 17.4B | 18.7B | N/A | ||
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For May
Imports m/m: 0.7%, forecast 0.3%, pr. -2.1% (Apr), 0.6%
(Mar)
The German trade surplus shrank in May to €14.4B, undershooting forecasts. Exports were down 3.2%, the biggest fall since June 2004. Global growth is slowing, creating less demand and the strong Euro makes German goods more expensive abroad. German exports have been a strong driver of activity during the 1st quarter. It paves a way for a rough 2nd quarter as domestic demand eases, and foreign orders slipping. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 18.7B | 15.6B | 16.6B | 16.7B | ||
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For April
Imports m/m: -2.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.6%
Exports grew surprisingly fast in April, while imports declined unexpectedly as well. Resilience in exports will be an area that can counter some of the slowdowns in other areas of the economy, as it has been the world's largest exporter of goods since 2003. Today's strong release contradicts the trend set by the poor industrial production and orders last week, which hinted demand maybe waning for German products.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 16.7B | 16.9B | 16.9B | N/A | ||
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For March (in Euro)
Imports m/m: 0.8%, pr. -0.6% (rev from -0.4%)
German exports declined for a second straight month and imports expanded, lowering the trade surplus to €16.7 billion. It came as a surprise to economists, but it seems that the global slowdown and a high euro are definitely taking their toll on orders. Yesterday, data showed that Factory Orders in Germany were down and German business confidence has declined recently. Signs that exports growth could help offset the pressures of weaker aggregate demand are starting to buckle, and could have a troubling sign for Euro-zone growth going forward. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 16.9B | 15.7B | 17.1B | N/A | ||
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For February (in Euro)
Imports m/m: -0.4%, forecast -0.8%, pr. 4.0%
The German trade surplus fell to 16.9B euros in February from 17.1B in January. Expectations were for an even steeper decline. Most of the gain came from a reduction of imports and not an increase of exports. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 17.1B | 15.2B | 10.7B | N/A | ||
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For Jan.
Exports surged despite the rising Euro. Exports grew 11.0B while imports grew 4.6B. This high level of exports will not last as the Euro has appreciated even more in February to above 1.50USD. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 10.8B | 16.8B | 19.3B | N/A | ||
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For December (in Euro)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Imports s.a. m/m: 5.3%, forecast 2.8%, pr. -3.0% (Nov)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 19.3B | 17.5B | 18.9B | 18.7B | ||
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For November (in Euro)
Release from German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) For the year to November, exports expanded 3.2%, while imports grew 2.3% higher and thus widened the surplus in balance of trade. The current account balance of payments similarly grew to 20.0B EUR, from 14.4B EUR. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 18.7B | 16.8B | 18.1B | N/A | ||
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For October (in Euro). Official Source: Federal Statistical Office Imports m/m: 0.2% (Oct), forecast 2.4%, pr. -2.6% (Sept) Imports y/y: 5.2% (Oct '06-'07) Exports m/m: 0.6% (Oct), forecast 0.0%, pr. 0.7% (Sept) Exports y/y: 6.3% (Oct '06-'07). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 18.1B | 15.0B | 14.1B | N/A | ||
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For September. Imports, sa m/m: -2.6% (Sept), consensus -0.8%, pr. 5.6% (Aug) Exports, sa m/m: 0.7% (Sept) consensus 0.3%, pr. 3.0% (Aug) |
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