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Indicator Digest

Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

March
10th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.0B 16.7B 13.4B 16.7B

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Previous Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 6.1%, pr. 4.5% (Dec), -5.9% (Nov), -2.4% (Oct),
5.8% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 5.9% (Jun), -2.1% (May),
-5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: -6.3%, pr. 3.0% (Dec), 1.6% (Nov), 2.5% (Oct),
3.6% (Sep), -2.8% (Aug), 2.3% (Jul), 6.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May),
-4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan)

Germany’s seasonally adjusted exports unexpectedly fell 6.3% m/m in January, the first fall in 5 months, after an upwardly revised 3.4% m/m gain in December, according to figures for the Federal Statistical Office. Imports climbed for a second month, rising 6.0% m/m, following an upwardly revised 5.0% m/m December advance. Exports increased 0.2% y/y in January, a second year-on-year gain, while imports declined 1.4% y/y. The trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed to €8.0 billion ($10.9 billion) in January from a downwardly revised €13.4 billion in December. The current account surplus shrank to €3.6 billion from December’s downwardly revised €19.9 billion.

Table of Past Data

6/97/98/79/810/911/912/91/82/93/10
Actual9.0B9.6B12.2B13.9B8.1B9.9B12.9B17.2B16.7B8.0B
Forecast9.4B8.9B11.0B11.3B12.6B11.3B10.3B12.2B14.8B16.7B
Previous8.9B9.0B9.5B11.0B12.4B10.6B10.4B12.7B17.0B13.4B
Revised FromN/AN/A10.3B11.0N/AN/A9.9B12.9B17.2B16.7B

Past Releases

February
9th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
16.7B 14.8B 17.0B 17.2B

For December (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 4.5%, forecast 3.0%, pr. -5.9% (Nov),
-2.4% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 5.9% (Jun),
-2.1% (May), -5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 3.0%, forecast -0.1%, pr. 1.6% (Nov),
2.5% (Oct), 3.6% (Sep), -2.8% (Aug), 2.3% (Jul), 6.1% (Jun),
0.3% (May), -4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan)

The German trade balance posted a 16.7 billion euro surplus in December, a figure that was smaller than in November, but better than expectations. Exports rose 3%, beating forecasts, while imports were up 4.5%. Exports are vital to the German economy, and this is now the 7th month out of 8 in which they have risen. However for the 2009 year exports were down 18.4% as a result of the global recession as a result of the financial crisis in late 2008. Germany has now lost its long-held status as the world's largest exporter as China exported a total of $1.202 trillion while Germany totaled $1.121 trillion.

January
8th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
17.2B 12.2B 12.7B 12.9B
December
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
12.9B 10.3B 10.4B 9.9B

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: -2.4%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 5.8% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 5.9% (Jun), -2.1% (May), -5.8% (Apr),
0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec), -5.6% (Nov)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 2.5%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 3.6% (Sep),
-2.8% (Aug), 2.3% (Jul), 6.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May), -4.8% (Apr),
0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov)

The German trade balance rose more than expected in October, climbing to €12.6 billion, as exports grew 2.5% while imports slid by a similar amount. Higher exports will help to bolster the economic recovery in the country. That is the second month in a row that exports were higher, and the fifth time in the past six months.  

November
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.9B 11.3B 10.6B N/A

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 5.8%, forecast 0.9%, pr. 0.5% R- (Aug),
0.0% (Jul), 5.9% (Jun), -2.1% (May), -5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar),
-4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec), -5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct),
0.9% (Sep), 2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 3.8%, forecast 2.5%, pr. -2.8% R- (Aug),
2.3% (Jul), 6.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May), -4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar),
-0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct),
0.7% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul)

October
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.1B 12.6B 12.4B N/A

For August (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 1.1%, pr. 0.0% (Jul), 5.9% (Jun), -2.1% (May),
-5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec),
-5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct), 0.9% (Sep), 2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: -1.8%, pr. 2.3% (Jul), 6.1% (Jun), 0.3% (May),
-4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec),
-10.6% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul)

September
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
13.9B 11.3B 11.0B 11.0

For July (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 0.0%, pr. 5.9% R (Jun), -2.1% (May),
-5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec),
-5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct), 0.9% (Sep), 2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 2.3%, pr. 6.1% R (Jun), 0.3% (May), -4.8% (Apr),
0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov),
-0.5% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul), 4.1% (Jun)

German exports, a key driver of growth for the economy, rose for a third straight month in July. In seasonally adjusted terms exports were up 2.3%, while imports remained flat, improving the trade surplus to 13.9 billion Euros. A pick up in global trade will help the economy's recovery, as it has already posted positive growth in the 2nd quarter and Germany is the world's largest exporter. The better trade data was countered later in the session by a disappointing industrial production report. 

August
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
12.2B 11.0B 9.5B 10.3B

For June (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: 6.8%, pr. -2.1% (May), -5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar),
-4.2% (Feb), -0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec), -5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct),
0.9% (Sep), 2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 7.0%, pr. 0.3% (May), -4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar),
-0.7% (Feb), -7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct),
0.7% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul), 4.1% (Jun)

July
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.6B 8.9B 9.0B N/A

For May (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Imports (s.a.) m/m: -2.1%, pr. -5.8% (Apr), 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb),
-0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec), -5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct), 0.9% (Sep),
2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: 0.3%, pr. -4.8% (Apr), 0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb),
-7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul), 4.1% (Jun)

June
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.0B 9.4B 8.9B N/A

For April (s.a.)
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Trade Bal. (n.s.a): 9.4B, pr. 11.3B (Mar), 8.7B (Feb), 7.0B (Jan),
6.9B (Dec), 9.9B (Nov), 16.4B (Oct), 15.0B (Sep), 10.6B (Aug),

Imports (s.a.) m/m: -5.8%, pr. 0.8% (Mar), -4.2% (Feb),
-0.8% (Jan), -4.1% (Dec), -5.6% (Nov), -3.5% (Oct), 0.9% (Sep),
2.5% (Aug), 7.4% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun)

Exports (s.a.) m/m: -4.8%, pr. 0.7% (Mar), -0.7% (Feb),
-7.4% (Jan), -3.7% (Dec), -10.6% (Nov), -0.5% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), -1.7% (Jul), 4.1% (Jun)