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Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

July
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.5B 5.2B 5.1B N/A

For May in C$
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "Canada's trade surplus with the world expanded to $5.5 billion in May, from $4.8 billion in April, as exports to countries other than the United States reached their highest level ever and exports to the United States remained strong.

Canadian exports rose for the fifth consecutive month, increasing 5.4% to $42.1 billion, as both volumes and prices increased. However, since November 2007, export prices have been on the rise, while volumes have been on a downward trend.

Imports increased 3.9% to $36.6 billion, their largest increase since July 2007. Volumes were up, while prices declined. Nevertheless, import prices have been on an upward trend for the past seven months, while movements in volume have been more volatile.

Exports to the United States increased for the fifth month in a row, reaching $31.3 billion, their highest level since December 2006. Imports grew by almost the same dollar value as exports, leaving the trade surplus with Canada's largest trading partner virtually unchanged at $8.1 billion."

 

Table of Past Data

10/1111/912/121/112/143/114/105/96/107/11
Actual4.1B2.6B3.3B3.7B2.4B3.3B4.9B5.5B5.1B5.5B
Forecast3.9B3.9B2.3B3.2B3.6B2.6B3.4B4.5B5.7B5.2B
Previous3.4B4.1B2.8B3.3B3.8B2.3B2.8B4.8B5.7B5.1B
Revised From3.7BN/A2.6BN/A3.7B2.4B3.3B4.9B5.5BN/A

Past Releases

June
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.1B 5.7B 5.7B 5.5B
For April in C$
Provided by: Statistics Canada
March's Release: News Release

Trade activity increased in both directions. Exports to the US increased for a 4th straight month, reaching $30.6B. However, it declined with the rest of the world for the first time in four months. In total, exports grew 0.8%, lifted by rising energy prices on the strength of petroleum and natural gas.

Energy products also lifted imports, which increased 2.6% in April after 2 months of declines. Energy products grew 19.0%, with volume increases trippling that of price increases. Also imports of motor vehicles rebounded 4.7%, from March's decline, but remain on a negative trend.

May
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.5B 4.5B 4.8B 4.9B
For March in C$
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

The trade widened to the highest level since May 2007. Exports rose 1.6% for the 3rd straight month of growth. Higher prices were the main reason for export growth as volume generally declined. Imports fell for a second month in a row, falling 0.3%. The Canadian Dollar was stronger overnight, and kept its gain in the hour following the release.

From the Release:

"Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world expanded for the third consecutive month in March as exports grew and imports declined.The trade surplus with the world jumped to $5.5 billion, its highest level since May 2007.

Exports to the United States climbed for the third month in a row while imports from Canada's southern neighbour decreased. Consequently, the trade surplus with the United States rose to $8.6 billion, the highest level since April 2006.The trade deficit with countries other than the United States fell to $3.1 billion, contracting for the third straight month with exports increasing at a much faster pace than imports. Increased exports to Mexico and Norway contributed to the monthly rise."

April
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.9B 3.4B 2.8B 3.3B

For February in C$
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

The Canadian trade surplus jump to almost C$5 billion, as Canadian exports were up 3.8%, while imports declined 2%. The figure beat expectations of a smaller increase. The increase in exports was spread across all sectors and was at its highest level since May 2007. Exports of automotive products climbed 11.4%, energy products gained 3.8% (to a record C$9.7 billion), and industrial goods and materials were up 2.8%.

From the Release:

"Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world expanded by more than $2 billion in February, in the wake of increases in all export sectors combined with a decrease in imports. Canadian companies exported $39.3 billion worth of merchandise, up 3.8% from January and the second consecutive monthly increase. In terms of constant dollars, a method used to isolate volume changes, prices remained flat, while export volumes rose 3.8%.

At the same time, the value of merchandise imports fell 2.0% to $34.4 billion, the first decrease since October 2007. In constant dollar terms, prices fell 1.2% while volumes also declined 0.8%. As a result, Canada's trade surplus with the world jumped to $4.9 billion from a revised $2.8 billion in January. This was the largest monthly surplus since May 2007.

The trade surplus with the United States soared to $8.1 billion, the biggest surplus in more than one year. Exports to the United States increased by 3.6%, while imports from the United States fell 3.4%. The trade deficit with countries other than the United States narrowed for the second straight month, falling to $3.2 billion, resulting from increased exports to Japan and the European Union, particularly the Netherlands and Italy."

March
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.3B 2.6B 2.3B 2.4B
For January in C$
Provided by: Statistics Canada

Exports increased at their fastest pace in more than a year according to StatCan. Exports totaled $38.0billion, a 3.6% increase from December. However it should be noted that volume edged down 0.6%, but prices rose 4.2%. Imports also increased 1.0% in value, but similarly to exports, it was driven by a 1.7% in prices, while volume slipped 0.7%. The trade surplus with the US improved after contracting in December. StatCan reports:
Exports partially recovered from December's decline, as gains in the majority of sectors outweighed declines in automotive products, machinery and equipment and other consumer goods.
Imports also rose in most sectors, with a notable surge in energy products, particularly crude petroleum.
February
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.4B 3.6B 3.8B 3.7B

For December in C$.
Provided by: Statistics Canada

"Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the world shrank to its lowest level in nine years in December, as exports declined and imports edged up.

Exports fell 3.1% to $36.7 billion as only one sector—energy products—recorded gains. In constant dollar terms, a method used to isolate volume changes, export volumes fell 6.5%, while prices rose 3.6%.

Imports inched up 0.7% to $34.3 billion. Prices increased 3.4%, while volumes declined 2.7%. Energy products were the main factor behind the gain in imports, offsetting a decline in automotive products.

As a result, the December trade surplus with the world narrowed to $2.4 billion, its lowest level since November 1998. The surplus with the United States narrowed to $6.1 billion, the second lowest level in 2007. At the same time, the trade deficit with countries other than the United States expanded to $3.8 billion, the largest deficit since August 2006.

For 2007 as a whole, Canada's trade surplus with the world narrowed from $51.3 billion in 2006 to $49.7 billion, the lowest level since 1999.

Both exports and imports hit record highs in 2007, and merchandise exports to countries other than the United States rose dramatically. Although it is still Canada's biggest trading partner, the United States accounted for about three-quarters (76.4%) of Canada's exports in 2007, down from 79.2% in 2006. On the other hand, the share of export trade with the rest of the world rose from 20.8% to 23.6%."

January
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.7B 3.2B 3.3B N/A
For November in C$.
Official Release from Statistics Canada

Exports m/m: 3.1%
Imports m/m: 1.7%
November was a strong month for exports in Canada, as they increased 3.1% compared to October, and halted a three-month decline. The nation's trade surplus increased for the second month in a row. Energy products (+5.4%) and industrial goods and materials (+4.8%) accounted for the largest share of the increase. Exports of crude petroleum jumped 13.1%, reaching a record high of C$4.1 billion. Imports of energy products soared as well, climbing 20.8% to C$3.3 billion.
December
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.3B 2.3B 2.8B 2.6B
For October (in Canadian Dollars).
Official Release from Statistics Canada

Imports declined 2.0%, to C$34.0 billion, while exports edged down 0.5% to C$37.4 billion. Prices declined for both exports and imports, contributing to overall reduction in the value of Canadian imports and exports. The trade surplus with the US narrowed to C$6.2 billion, the lowest since October 2006, with exports falling sharply.
November
9th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.6B 3.9B 4.1B N/A
For September.
October
11th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.1B 3.9B 3.4B 3.7B
For August

Canada's trade surplus widened in August as declines in exports were overshadowed by a larger decrease in imports, according to Statistics Canada. In July, imports had set a record high.

Exports decreased 1.8% to C$38.5 billion.
Imports decreased 3.9% to C$34.4 billion.
Trade Balance with US widened to C$6.7 billion.

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