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Indicator Digest

Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

March
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.18B -1.57B -2.17B -2.25B

For January (s.a.)
Current Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: pr. 6% (Dec), -3% (Nov), -1% (Oct), 5% (Sep)
Exports m/m: pr. 4% (Dec), -2% (Nov), -3% (Oct), 5% (Sep)

Table of Past Data

6/37/18/49/210/511/412/81/62/23/3
Actual-0.09B-0.56B-0.44B-1.56B-1.52B-1.85B-2.38B-1.70B-2.25B-1.18B
Forecast1.70B-0.10B-0.79B-0.80B-0.89B-2.16B-1.78B-1.79B-2.36B-1.57B
Previous2.30B-0.28B-0.74B-0.54B-1.78B-1.65B-1.85B-2.08B-1.73B-2.17B
Revised From2.50B-0.09B-0.56B-0.44B-1.56B-1.52BN/A-2.38B-1.70B-2.25B

Past Releases

February
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.25B -2.36B -1.73B -1.70B

For December (s.a.)
Current Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: 6%, pr. -3% (Nov), -1% (Oct), 5% (Sep), -3% (Aug),
4% (Jul), -4% (May), -2% (Apr), -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan)
Exports m/m: 4%, pr. -2% (Nov), -3% (Oct), 5% (Sep), -2% (Aug),
-1% (Jul), 2% (Jun), -5% (May), -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb)

January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.70B -1.79B -2.08B -2.38B

For November (s.a.)
Current Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -3%, pr. -1% (Oct), 5% (Sep), -3% (Aug), 4% (Jul),
-4% (May), -2% (Apr), -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec)
Exports m/m: -2%, pr. -3% (Oct), 5% (Sep), -2% (Aug), -1% (Jul),
2% (Jun), -5% (May), -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan)

December
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.38B -1.78B -1.85B N/A

For October (s.a.)
Current Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -1%, pr. 5% (Sep), -3% (Aug), 4% (Jul), -4% (May),
-2% (Apr), -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov)
Exports m/m: -3%, pr. 5% (Sep), -2% (Aug), -1% (Jul), 2% (Jun),
-5% (May), -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec)

Australia's trade deficit widened in October as the country exported 12% less coal and 8% less iron ore. The trade shortfall swelled to A$2.38 billion, which was larger than expected, and a large increase from September's figure. Exports declined from about A$20.2 billion in September to A$19.5 billion in October, while imports fell about A$150 million. Therefore the 3% slide in exports was not offset by the 1% slide in imports. The report did show that volumes of exports were relatively steady and it was a decline in prices that was responsible for the decline. That could mean a bounce back as commodity prices recover. 

November
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.85B -2.16B -1.65B -1.52B

For September (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: pr. -3% (Aug), 4% (Jul), -4% (May), -2% (Apr),
-3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct)
Exports m/m: pr. -2% (Aug), -1% (Jul), 2% (Jun), -5% (May),
-11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov)

October
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.52B -0.89B -1.78B -1.56B

For August (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -3%, pr. 4% (Jul), -4% (May), -2% (Apr). -3% (Mar),
-1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep)
Exports m/m: -2%, pr. -1% (Jul), 2% (Jun), -5% (May), -11% (Apr),
-2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct)

September
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.56B -0.80B -0.54B -0.44B

For July (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m:  pr. -4% (May), -2% (Apr). -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb),
-7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug)
Exports m/m: pr. -5% (May), -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb),
-5% (Jan), -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug)

August
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.44B -0.79B -0.74B -0.56B

For June (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m:  pr. -4% (May), -2% (Apr). -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb),
-7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug)
Exports m/m: -5%,  pr. -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan),
-3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

July
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.56B -0.10B -0.28B -0.09B

For May (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -4%, pr. -2% (apr). -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan),
-2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -5%,  pr. -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan),
-3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

Australia's trade balance posted its biggest deficit since July 2008 in the May period. The trade deficit widened to a seasonally-adjusted 556 million Australian dollars ($449 million), as exports continued their slide. Exports were down 5% continuing the weak demand seen in April when they slid 11%. The global economic slowdown has sapped demand for Australia's commodities, depriving Australia's economy of a key sector for growth. Imports were down 4% as well, which worked to offset some of the decline in exports. Australian mining and energy companies, which flourished during the commodity rally in 2008, will now face headwinds until growth in developing nations like China starts to pick up.

AUD/USD - 1 Hour Chart - July 2nd - 12:20AM ET

Jul 1st, 09 - AUDUSD - Australia July Trade Balance 

Wednesday's price action saw the Aussie in a correction phase against the greenback following its rally from 0.7980 to 0.8150 in the first half of the week. Wednesday's low tested the 76.4% Fibonacci level, and the pair's high at 0.81 met resistance near the 23.6% retracement. The Aussie was sliding prior to the weak trade data, and the greenback was able to extend its gains to the 0.8050 area. The pair has been dictated by risk sentiment, so how equities and commodities react to Thursday's key fundamental events will determine its direction to end the week.
June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.09B 1.70B 2.30B 2.50B

For April
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -2%. pr. -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec),
2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -11%, pr. -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec),
-4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)