Indicator Digest

Forex Resources

Open a Free Practice Account

Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.

Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.

Trade Balance

The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

July
1st, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.56B

-0.10B

-0.28B

-0.09B

For May (s.a.)
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -4%, pr. -2% (apr). -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan),
-2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -5%, pr. -11% (Apr), -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan),
-3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

Australia's trade balance posted its biggest deficit since July 2008 in the May period. The trade deficit widened to a seasonally-adjusted 556 million Australian dollars ($449 million), as exports continued their slide. Exports were down 5% continuing the weak demand seen in April when they slid 11%. The global economic slowdown has sapped demand for Australia's commodities, depriving Australia's economy of a key sector for growth. Imports were down 4% as well, which worked to offset some of the decline in exports. Australian mining and energy companies, which flourished during the commodity rally in 2008, will now face headwinds until growth in developing nations like China starts to pick up.

AUD/USD - 1 Hour Chart - July 2nd - 12:20AM ET

Jul 1st, 09 - AUDUSD - Australia July Trade Balance

Wednesday's price action saw the Aussie in a correction phase against the greenback following its rally from 0.7980 to 0.8150 in the first half of the week. Wednesday's low tested the 76.4% Fibonacci level, and the pair's high at 0.81 met resistance near the 23.6% retracement. The Aussie was sliding prior to the weak trade data, and the greenback was able to extend its gains to the 0.8050 area. The pair has been dictated by risk sentiment, so how equities and commodities react to Thursday's key fundamental events will determine its direction to end the week.

Table of Past Data

	10/1	11/4	12/3	1/7	2/2	3/4	4/1	5/5	6/3	7/1

Actual	1.36B	1.46B	2.95B	1.45B	0.59B	0.97B	2.11B	2.50B	-0.09B	-0.56B
Forecast	0.26B	0.50B	1.45B	2.15B	1.05B	1.10B	0.70B	1.75B	1.70B	-0.10B
Previous	-0.69B	1.24B	1.25B	2.95B	0.98B	0.42B	0.93B	1.75B	2.30B	-0.28B
Revised From	N/A	1.36B	1.46B	N/A	1.45B	0.59B	0.97B	2.11B	2.50B	-0.09B

Past Releases

June
3rd, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.09B

1.70B

2.30B

2.50B

For April
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -2%. pr. -3% (Mar), -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec),
2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -11%, pr. -2% (Mar), 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec),
-4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

May
5th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.50B

1.75B

2.11B

For March
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: pr. -1% (Feb), -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct),
7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: pr. 4% (Feb), -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct),
8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

April
1st, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.11B

0.70B

0.93B

0.97B

For February
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -1%, pr. -7% (Jan), -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep),
-2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: 4%, pr. -5% (Jan), -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep),
6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

March
4th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.97B

1.10B

0.42B

0.59B

For January
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -7%, pr. -2% (Dec), 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep),
-2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -5%, pr. -3% (Dec), -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep),
6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

February
2nd, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.59B

1.05B

0.98B

1.45B

For December
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -2%, pr. 2% (Nov), 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug),
4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -3%, pr. -4% (Nov), 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug),
-1.0% (Jul)

Australia's trade surplus shrank by 40% in December as an economic slowdown in China reduced demand for commodity exports. Exports were down 3%, while imports decreased 2%. With commodity prices falling, there is a chance that Australia returns to a trade deficit soon. December was the fifth month in a row that there was a surplus, but the trade surplus has shrank the last three months. December's figure came in far below expectations.

January
7th, 2009

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.45B

2.15B

2.95B

N/A

For November
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: 2%, pr. 0% (Oct), 7% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul)
Exports m/m: -4%, pr. 7% (Oct), 8% (Sep), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul)

December
3rd, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.95B

1.45B

1.25B

1.46B

For October
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: 0%, pr. 7% (Oct), -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul), -1.0% (Jun)
Exports m/m: 7%, pr. 8% (Oct), 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul), 2.0% (Jun)

The Australia trade surplus surprised forecasts on the upside, increased to A$2.95 billion, driven by an increase in coal exports. Exports rose 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while imports remained flat. The better than expected result may help to keep GDP growth positive in the 4th quarter, the way a boost in farming helped keep growth positive in the 3rd quarter. Australia will have to worry about the global recession which could affect demand and prices for the country's exports. However with the recent depreciation of the Aussie, Australian exports should remain attractive for foreign buyers.

November
4th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.46B

0.50B

1.24B

1.36B

For September
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: International Trade in Goods and Services (HTML)

Imports m/m: 7%, pr. -2.0% (Aug), 4.0% (Jul), -1.0% (Jun), 6.0% (May)
Exports m/m: 8%, pr. 6.0% (Aug), -1.0% (Jul), 2.0% (Jun), 1.0%, (May)

Australia's exports beat out imports for the month of September, bringing the trade surplus to 1.46B AUD. Exports rose 8%, while imports rose 7%. This exceeded economists expectations of a half-billion AUD surplus and is the highest level since June of 1997. Non-rural goods exports were the main contributor for the increase in exports, as it outweighed the month's import growth led by intermediate and other merchandise goods.

October
1st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.36B

0.26B

-0.69B

N/A

For August
Release Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: -2.0%, pr. 4.0% (Jul), -1.0% (Jun), 6.0% (May), -2.2% (Apr)
Exports m/m: 6.0%, pr. -1.0% (Jul), 2.0% (Jun), 1.0%, (May), 5.8% (Apr)

On a seasaonally adjusted basis, August exports in Australia grew 6.0% or by $1.48 billion, while imports on the month shrank by 2.0%, or by $575 million. The result is a trade surplus of $1.36 billion, which is a swing of $2.06 billion.

From the release: "The seasonally adjusted surplus was primarily due to the strong rise in non rural and other goods credits and the fall in fuels and lubricants debts."