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Trade Balance
The Trade Balance measures a countries' trade in the world by examining exports and imports. A positive value means a country exported more than it imported. In some countries like Germany and Japan, exports make up an important part of GDP. Higher levels of exports for a country will tend to increase the demand for that country's currency, as foreign firms have to purchase those exports in the country's domestic currency.

Main Indicator: Trade Balance

Most Recent Release

July
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0B -1.0B 0.1B -1.0B

For May
Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics
Impact: High

Imports m/m: 6.0%, pr. -2.2% (Apr), 1.3% (Mar), -0.2% (Feb)
Exports m/m: 1.0%, pr. 5.8% (Apr), 4.4% (Mar), -4.1% (Feb)

Table of Past Data

10/210/3112/21/92/33/54/65/56/47/2
Actual-1.60B-1.9B-3.0B-2.3B-1.9B-2.7B-3.3B-2.74B-1.0B-1.0B
Forecast-1.40B-1.0B-1.8B-2.5B-2.0B-2.6B-2.5B-2.90B-1.7B-1.0B
Previous-0.76B-1.7B-1.9B-2.9B-2.2B-1.9B-2.7B-3.29B-2.5B0.1B
Revised FromN/A-1.6BN/A-3.0B-2.3BN/AN/AN/A-2.7B-1.0B

Past Releases

June
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0B -1.7B -2.5B -2.7B

For April
Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics
Impact: High

Imports m/m: -2.2%, pr. 1.3% (Mar), -0.2% (Feb)
Exports m/m: 5.8%, pr. 4.4% (Mar), -4.1% (Feb)

Australia's trade balance more than halved the previous figures, and is the narrowest in 14 months. Exports surged 5.8%, the most since 1971, when the government started to post these numbers. Despite a strong Aussie, exports were buoyed by strong demand in Australia's natural resources. Factors such as heavy rain, and bottlenecks at mines which suppressed exports in the first quarter, seem to be subsiding now. Exports contribute to 20% of the GDP.

May
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.74B -2.90B -3.29B N/A

For March
Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics
Impact: High

Imports m/m: 1.3%, pr. -0.2% (Feb), 5.4% (Jan), 0.4% (Dec)
Exports m/m: 4.4%, pr. -4.1% (Feb), 1.7% (Jan), 1.8% (Dec)

Australia's trade balance improved by 16% in March, as exports increased 4.4% (A$19,176M) compared to February's -4.1% change. Imports were up as well, but by a lower amount, climbing 1.3% (A$21,912M). Exports were led by an increase in iron ore, coal and wheat. Australia's economy continued to be bolstered by demand for Australian goods. With wheat prices surging, and good rainfall, the country is set double its wheat production. Demand for Australia's raw materials has been fueled by the rapid growth in China. Australian officials may be expecting the trade deficit to continue shrinking as imports may be set to coll as a result of tighter consumers - faced with 12-year high borrowing costs.

April
6th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.3B -2.5B -2.7B N/A

For February
Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics
Impact: High

Imports m/m: -0.2%, pr. 5.4% (Jan), 0.4% (Dec)
Exports m/m: -4.1%, pr. 1.7% (Jan), pr. 1.8% (Dec)

Pre-Release: January saw a surge in imports as the Aussie Dollar's value made imports cheaper. Expectations for February are for another deficit number close to January's -2.7B.

Post-Release: The trade balance fell into further deficit in February. Exports declined by 4.1% and imports were relatively steady falling only 0.2%. The new difference between exports and imports was A$3.3 billion, a A$600 million larger deficit than the previous month.

 

March
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.7B -2.6B -1.9B N/A

For January
Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: 5.4% pr. 0.4% r(0.1%)
Exports m/m: 1.7% pr. 1.8% r(1.3%)

Imports skyrocketted as the Australian dollar strengthened and commodities demand from China surged. 

February
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.9B -2.0B -2.2B -2.3B

For December
Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics

Imports m/m: 0.1%, pr. 1.3%
Exports m/m: 1.3%, pr. 5.3%

The Australian trade deficit narrowed to A$1.9 billion, more than expected in December. Exports rose to a record A$18.6 bln, as farm shipments such as wheat, wool and sheepskin rose 9%. Mining shiments were up as well as coal saw a 10% rise for the month. Helathy exports will help Australia to weather a slowdown in the US, as many of the exports were heading towards Southeast Asia, mainly China and India. 

January
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.3B -2.5B -2.9B -3.0B
For November.
Official Release from Australian Bureau of Statistics

Exports: 18.38B, pr. 17.4B
Imports: 20.63B, pr. 20.26B

The Australian trade deficit has been widening during the past year. The trend estimate was a deficit of 2.47B AUD in November 2007, an increase of $173m from the previous month.
December
2nd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.0B -1.8B -1.9B N/A
For October.
Provided by Australian Bureau of Statistics

Exports s/a: A$ 17.235B (Oct), pr. A$ 17.850B (Sept)
Imports s/a: A$ 20.219B (Oct), pr. A$ 19.766B (Sept)

Imports showed an increase of 2% ($453 million), while exports showed a decrease of 3% ($615 million), causing the trade deficit to widen A$ 1.067 billion.

The Australian Dollar lost after the news. Here is a shot of the AUD/JPY pair more than 100 pips from the week's open to the low for the session.
Australian Trade Balance
October
31st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.9B -1.0B -1.7B -1.6B
October
2nd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.60B -1.40B -0.76B N/A
For August, in Australian Dollars.

Exports (Aug): 18.64B, pr. 18.36B
Imports (Aug): 20.25B, pr. 19.12B

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