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Main Indicator: Trade Balance
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -57.2B | -53.5B | -56.5B | N/A | ||
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For October
Exports m/m: -2.2%, pr. -6.0% (Sep), -2.0% (Aug), 3.3% (Jul), 4.0% (Jun)
The US trade deficit widened for the first time in 3 months, increasing to -$57.2 billion. A record increase in the quantity of oil imported offset falling oil prices and plunging car sales. The figure was much bigger than expected by Wall Street. The trade balance has been improving recently as a weak economy has curbed demand for imports and the price of oil has been coming down. However in October, the amount of oil imported grew by a record amount, though overall imports were still down 1.3%. Imports of industrial supplies (-$104 million) and capital goods ($1.4 billion) weakened in this economic environment. On the exports side, sales of US cars abroad fell by $236 million while consumer goods exports fell by $156 million. Sales of industrial supplies were down $1.41 billion. |
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Table of Past Data
| 3/11 | 4/10 | 5/9 | 6/10 | 7/11 | 8/12 | 9/11 | 10/10 | 11/13 | 12/11 | ||
| Actual | -58.2B | -62.3B | -58.2B | -60.9B | -59.8B | -56.8B | -62.2B | 59.1B | -56.5B | -57.2B | |
| Forecast | -59.5B | -57.4B | -61.4B | -59.5B | -62.2B | -61.8B | -58.0B | -59.5B | -56.5B | -53.5B | |
| Previous | -57.9B | -58.2B | 61.7B | -56.5B | -60.5B | -59.2B | -58.8B | -61.3B | -59.1B | -56.5B | |
| Revised From | -58.8B | N/A | -62.3B | -58.2B | -60.9 | -59.8B | -56.8 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |

Past Releases
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -56.5B | -56.5B | -59.1B | N/A | ||
|
For September
Exports m/m: -6.0%, pr. -2.0% (Aug), 3.3% (Jul), 4.0% (Jun), 0.9% (May)
The US trade deficit narrowed to $56.5B in September from $59.1B. However, most of the decline comes as a result of a smaller import bill for petroleum. Excluding petroleum, the deficit widened as overseas sales of American-made goods dropped by the most since 2001. Exports were down 6%, the largest fall since 2001. Imports were down a record 5.6%, as the current economic climate causes a pullback in Americans spending on foreign autos and televisions. A narrowing trade deficit is likely to continue as oil prices continued to fall in October, and the turmoil around financial markets only intensified. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 59.1B | -59.5B | -61.3B | N/A | ||
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For August
Exports m/m: -2.0%, pr. 3.3% (Jul), 4.0% (Jun), 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr)
The US trade deficit shrank in August as both exports and imports fell. Imports were down as oil prices decreased, and there was less crude oil purchased amid a weakening economy. The trade deficit amounted to $59.14 billion, a 3.5% decrease from July's revised figure. With the US' major trading partners slowing US exports declined by 2%. The trade deficit shrank with Japan, the Euro-area, and Canada, though rose against China. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -62.2B | -58.0B | -58.8B | -56.8 | ||
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For July
Exports m/m: 3.3%, pr. 4.0% (Jun), 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr), -1.7%
(Mar)
The US trade deficit widened more than forecast in July, posting a $62.2 billion gap between imports and exports. Imports were up 3.9% as the price of oil climbed which resulted in $42.6 billion of spending on crude oil. That pressure shoudl be allieviated in August as oil prices retreated. In a seperate release today it was shown that import prices fell 3.7% in August to bolster that view. Exports were up 3.3%. The USD/JPY was weaker overnight and extended its fall following the trade release, which pressured the greenback.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -56.8B | -61.8B | -59.2B | -59.8B | ||
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For June
Exports m/m: 4.0%, pr. 0.9% (May), 3.3% (Apr), -1.7%
(Mar)
If prices are taken out of the equation, the trade deficit narrowed to $39.1B, the lowest since Dec 2001. It was $43.5B in May. Since this number is used in calculating GDP growth, it may be a reason to revise expectations upward. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -59.8B | -62.2B | -60.5B | -60.9 | ||
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For May
Exports m/m: 0.9%, pr. 3.3% (Apr), -1.7%
(Mar)
The US trade deficit shrank 1.2% in May to $59.8 billion from a revised $60.5 billion in April. Expectations had been for the deficit to widen. Exports increased 0.9%, most likely as a low Dollar helps makes American goods more competitive abroad. Imports increased at 0.3%, much lower than the rate of increase in April. Export growth has propped up the US economy as housing sinks and domestic spending continues to weak. The trade gap with China and OPEC countries widened, while trade deficits with Canada, Mexico, Japan and the EU all narrowed. Exports to Canada and the EU were at record lows. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -60.9B | -59.5B | -56.5B | -58.2B | ||
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For April
Imports m/m: 4.5% pr. -2.9% According to the BEA, exports of goods and services increase $5.0B to $155.5B, mostly coming from increases in goods exports, although services exports also increased. Under goods exports, capital goods, industrial supplies and materials as well as consumer goods were the bulk of it. Imports increased $9.4B to $216.4B, also mostly due to goods, and partially to services. Imports were led by that of industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; and consumer goods. From the release: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total April exports of $155.5 billion and imports of $216.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $60.9 billion, up from $56.5 billion in March, revised. April exports were $5.0 billion more than March exports of $150.6 billion. April imports were $9.4 billion more than March imports of $207.1 billion. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -58.2B | -61.4B | 61.7B | -62.3B | ||
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For March
Exports m/m:-1.7% pr. 2.0%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -62.3B | -57.4B | -58.2B | N/A | ||
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For February
Exports m/m: 2.0%
The US trade deficit widened unexpectedly in February to $62.3 billion. The change was led by an increase in imports of automobiles and machinery. Imports were up 3.1% overall, which was the biggest monthly gain in almost a year, and was a new record at $213.7 billion. Exports were up 2% (to $151.4 billion) boosted by sales of fuel oil, autos, food oils, and corn. Increases to imports, like the one seen in February, will probably not be reproduced as the US economy continues to slip into recessionary conditions. Exports have been a bright spot US economic performance, but a global slowdown may impact foreign demand. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -58.2B | -59.5B | -57.9B | -58.8B | ||
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For January
Official Release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis The trade deficit expanded, but at a lesser extent than economists had anticipated. Total Imports grew $2.7B while exports grew $2.4B. |
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