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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

Dollar Index at Support

Hans Nilsson2009-11-13

The dollar fell on Friday as risk sentiment and US stocks rose. US trade deficit widened more than anticipated on strong import growth and US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell. The S&P 500 rose 6.24 to 1,093.48. The yen was supported by yuan revaluation speculation.

AUD/USD Fails to Penetrate Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-11-12

The dollar advanced on Thursday as risk aversion rose. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geither said the US wants a strong dollar. China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao warned the global economic recovery will be uneven.

EUR/USD at Important Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-11-10

The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday as risk-prone currencies consolidated gains. The S&P 500 was little changed, losing just 0.07 points to 1,093.01. The dollar index was also little changed, hovering around the 75- handle support. The yen rose modestly.

G-20 Signals Green Light to Sell Dollar

Hans Nilsson2009-11-09

The dollar plunged on Monday after G-20 finance ministers did not address the dollar slide and agreed to maintain the stimulus programs for the foreseeable future. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the G-20 had decided to keep interest rates low and maintain record budget deficits until economic recoveries take hold.

Aussie Likely Moving Higher

Hans Nilsson2009-11-06

The dollar traded mixed on Friday after the US unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% in October and employment dropped a larger-than-expected 190K, raising doubts of the US recovery. The employment situation is indeed bad with unemployment at the highest level since 1983.

Dollar Mixed as Stocks Rally

Hans Nilsson2009-11-05

The dollar traded mixed ahead of Friday’s release of US payroll data. US productivity surged for a second quarter and jobless claims declined more than expected. The S&P 500 rose 20.13 to 1,066.63, supported by those good economic news and an optimistic outlook from the technology giant Cisco.

Dollar Falls as Fed Keeps Loose Monetary Stance

Hans Nilsson2009-11-04

The dollar fell on Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee reiterated that US economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” The FOMC also said inflationary expectations are well anchored and consumer spending is improving.

FX Jumpy Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

Hans Nilsson2009-11-03

The dollar rose against most key currencies on Tuesday as investors worried about the health of the global banking sector and the sustainability of the equity rally. UBS, a huge Swiss bank, reported a wider-than-estimated loss. In the UK, Royal Bank of Scotland said it was taking more public funding, and Lloyds announced a rights issue.

Aussie Higher ahead of RBA Meeting

Hans Nilsson2009-11-02

The dollar fell versus most key currencies on Monday. Risk sentiment improved after better-than-expected economic data across the globe. PMI figures rose more than expected in China, Europe and the US, indicating the global economy is recovering. Still, stocks pared earlier strong gains after Jon Greenlee, associate director of the Fed’s Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, said “the condition of the banking system is far from robust.”

Dollar Gains as Stocks Slump

Hans Nilsson2009-10-30

The dollar and yen ended a volatile week on a strong note on Friday. Risk aversion rose on growing concerns over the financial company outlook and the sustainability of the economic recovery. Personal income and personal consumption were weak as expected and consumer conference declined, but manufacturing activity was stronger than anticipated.

Risk Appetite Surges on Strong GDP

Hans Nilsson2009-10-29

The dollar and yen fell as risk appetite increased after the US economy grew faster than expected. US GDP rose a stronger-than-expected 3.5% in Q3 2009 as personal consumption contributed the most to GDP gains since Q4 2006. Inventory gains were modest and will likely rise strongly next quarter, which should ensure strong Q4 GDP growth.

Dollar Index Downtrend Broken

Hans Nilsson2009-10-28

The dollar and yen rose as risk aversion increased. Norway raised its key interest rate a quarter point to 1.50%, reminding investors that money will not be nearly free forever. US new-home sales unexpectedly declined in September after posting a fifth consecutive gain in August.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.