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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

Dollar Index at Key Support

Hans Nilsson2009-07-31

The dollar fell in NY trading Friday as a government report showed the US economy contracted less than expected in Q2 2009. Private inventories declined sharply for a second quarter, making it likely that the Q3 2009 GDP will show a strong economic expansion as the record drawdown of inventories will set the stage for increased production. The S&P 500 rose 1.73 points to 988.48, moving closer to the 1000 resistance on economic recovery optimism.

Risk Appetite Returns

Hans Nilsson2009-07-30

The dollar and yen fell on Thursday on improved risk appetites. Global stocks rose as most international economic data exceeded expectations. US continuing jobless claims fell for a third week. The S&P 500 climbed 11.6 points to 986.75 on better-than-expected earnings.

Dollar Rallies from Key Support

Hans Nilsson2009-07-29

The dollar rose on Wednesday as risk aversion increased. Global stocks dropped, led by plunging Chinese shares. The S&P 500 declined 4.47 points to 975.15. US durable goods orders fell more than expected in June due to the volatile transportation sector; however, posting the second straight increase excluding transportation.

USD Holds Support as Consumer Confidence Declines

Hans Nilsson2009-07-28

The dollar index found support at the key 78 area and reversed earlier losses after US consumer confidence declined more than expected. However, there were also US economic recovery signs. The S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes for May posted their first monthly gains in nearly three years.

Greenback Testing Lows

Hans Nilsson2009-07-27

The dollar traded modestly lower near key support on Monday. US new-home sales surged a stronger-than-expected 11.0% m/m, a third straight gain and the biggest in eight years. The S&P 500 was up 2.92 points to 982.18.

Yen Falls as Dow Breaks Key Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-07-23

The dollar and yen fell on Thursday on improved risk appetite. The S&P 500 climbed 22.2 points to 976.29. The euro traded near a 7-week high against the greenback. Sterling was supported by better-than-expected UK retail sales and mortgage approvals.

GBP/USD Below Important Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-07-22

The dollar traded mixed in directionless trading Wednesday. Flat US stocks and rising home prices provided only limited support for the more risk-sensitive currencies. The S&P 500 fell 0.51 points to 954.07. The yen rose modestly. The euro declined as eurozone industrial new orders fell more than expected.

Stocks and USD at Important Technical Levels

Hans Nilsson2009-07-21

The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, lower versus the yen but higher against the pound. The dollar was supported in early trading as risk aversion returned, but pared gains as US stocks reversed earlier losses and closed higher. CIT said it may need to file for bankruptcy if it can't repurchase notes maturing next month. The S&P 500 rose 3.45 points to 954.58.

Dollar Falls on Recovery Optimism

Hans Nilsson2009-07-20

The dollar and yen fell on Monday as risk aversion subsided on the news that the troubled lender CIT Group appeared to secure a $3 billion loan in a deal that should ward off bankruptcy. US stocks rose after Goldman Sachs raised its yearend S&P 500 target to 1060 from 940. The yen was little changed against the greenback but fell versus most other key currencies.

Weekly Drop for Dollar and Yen on Improving Sentiment

Hans Nilsson2009-07-17

Safe haven demand boosted the dollar on Friday after terrorist bombings in Jakarta, Indonesia. Data on US housing starts and building permits were better than anticipated. The S&P 500 fell 0.36 points to 940.38, but US stocks rose about 7% for the week. The dollar and yen declined on better risk appetite while the European and commodity currencies advanced for the week.

Yen Gains on CIT Risk

Hans Nilsson2009-07-16

The dollar fell against most major currencies on Thursday on mixed economic news. Risk aversion increased after commercial lender CIT Group said bailout talks with the US government failed. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell more than expected in July. Meanwhile, US initial and continuing jobless claims dropped more than anticipated and July builder confidence climbed to the highest level since September 2008.

USD/CAD Falls on Global Recovery

Hans Nilsson2009-07-15

The dollar and yen fell on Wednesday as US stocks rallied on earnings and economic recovery optimism. US industrial production posted the smallest drop in eight months. The New York Fed manufacturing report showed that manufacturing orders are expanding and the sector contracted at the slowest pace in over a year. The S&P 500 rallied 26.84 points to 932.68.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.