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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

Risk Appetite Falls as US Consumer Sentiment Declines

Hans Nilsson2009-06-30

The dollar reversed overnight losses and gained against its counterparts on Tuesday after US consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined. The euro declined on increased risk aversion and a report that eurozone CPI fell for first time ever.

USD and JPY Lower on Improved Risk Sentiment

Hans Nilsson2009-06-29

The dollar reversed most of its overnight gains as risk appetite rose. Eurozone economic sentiment climbed for a third straight month in June. US stocks advanced. The S&P 500 rose 8.33 points to 927.23, extending its best quarterly gain since 1998.

USD/CAD Testing Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-06-26

The dollar closed the week lower against its rivals on Friday as China renewed its call for a new international reserve currency based on the IMF’s SDR. US personal income jumped more than expected and consumer sentiment rose to the highest level since February 2008. The S&P 500, little changed for the week, declined 1.36 points to 918.90.

AUD/USD Testing Uptrend

Hans Nilsson2009-06-25

The dollar traded mostly lower on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced it curtails some of its liquidity programs “in light of the improvement in financial conditions.” Risk appetite improved and the S&P 500 rose 19.32 points to 920.26.

Greenback Gains as Fed Stays Put

Hans Nilsson2009-06-24

The dollar rose on Wednesday after the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at a record-low range of zero to 0.25% and left its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program unchanged. The Fed also stated that “the pace of economic contraction is slowing” and “inflation will remain subdued for some time.” The OECD raised its economic forecast for its 30 member countries to a 4.1% contraction in 2009 and a 0.7% expansion in 2010. US durable goods orders unexpectedly jumped in May, adding to signs of an economic recovery. The S&P 500 was up 5.84 points to 900.94.

Dollar at Crossroad

Hans Nilsson2009-06-23

The greenback fell on Tuesday as economic data showed more signs of a global economic recovery. US existing home sales rose for a second month in May, but the gain was slightly less than expected. European purchasing manager indexes contracted the least since the beginning of the recession, but they were somewhat short of expectations. Most currency pairs are at significant technical levels. The next few days are likely to determine whether the dollar and yen will continue to gain on global recovery pessimism or whether increased optimism will benefit risk-taking and other key currencies. The S&P 500 index rose 2.06 points to 895.10.

Risk Aversion Spikes as World Bank Sees Deeper Recession

Hans Nilsson2009-06-22

The USD and JPY rose on increased risk aversion after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than previously forecast. Global equity and commodity prices fell while bond prices rose. The yen gained against all key currencies as the S&P 500 index declined 8.19 points to 893.04. Sterling was pressured by falling UK house prices. The commodity currencies were particularly hurt by the spike in risk aversion as commodity prices fell.

Greenback Lower Before Fed Meeting

Hans Nilsson2009-06-19

The dollar was lower on Friday. Recent economic figures suggested the global economy is recovering, increasing investor willingness to hold riskier assets. The FX market is awaiting next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Federal Reserve will likely give a somewhat upbeat outlook for the US economy with no emphasis on interest-rate hikes as deflation remains a more imminent risk than inflation.

Greenback Gains on Recovery Signs

Hans Nilsson2009-06-18

The dollar reversed earlier losses against most major currencies late Thursday. Recent economic recovery signs indicate the US recession is nearing an end. The Conference Board US LEI rose the most since the end of the 2001 recession and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to the highest level in nine months. The 4-week average of US initial jobless claims declined 7K to 616K, the lowest level since mid- February.

Canadian Dollar Consolidating Gains

Hans Nilsson2009-06-17

The dollar fell modestly on Wednesday on better risk appetite. US consumer-price inflation was lower than expected in May, reducing the possibility of early Fed rate hikes. The lack of inflationary pressures reduced the chance of premature Fed tightening and renewed deflationary pressures. The S&P 500 fell 1.26 points to 910.71 after trading in a narrow range.

Yen Rises on Falling Risk Sentiment

Hans Nilsson2009-06-16

The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday as the BRIC countries called for greater influence in international financial institutions and for a more diversified global monetary system. US and European prices showed no signs of serious inflation. US industrial production fell more than anticipated while the housing sector surprised to the upside. The S&P 500 fell 11.75 points to 911.97.

JPY and USD Gain as Investors Take Profits

Hans Nilsson2009-06-15

The dollar rose on Monday as international stocks and commodity prices fell sharply. The greenback was also supported by Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin’s comments that the dollar is in “good shape” and it's “too early to speak of an alternative” to the dollar.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.