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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

USD Loses Safe Haven Bids as Risk Appetite Increases

Hans Nilsson2009-05-29

The dollar fell versus its rivals on Friday as risk appetite improved on more signs of a global economic recovery. Japan's April industrial production surged the most in at least six years; Germany’s April retail sales gained for the first time in four months; and US May consumer confidence rose to the highest level since September. The greenback was also pressured by US inflation and funding worries although bond yields fell for a second day following the spike in rates midweek. The Dow rose 97 points to end the month of May at 8500, its third monthly gain.

Yen Falls as Yield Spreads Widen

Hans Nilsson2009-05-28

The dollar traded mixed on Thursday, sharply higher against the yen but lower versus the euro and commodity currencies, reversing most of yesterday's move as US bond yields fell and equities rose. Today's economic figures were mostly supportive of a global economic recovery and risk-taking. The S&P 500 rose 13.77 to 906.83. US initial jobless claims fell and durable goods orders rose, indicating the worst of the US recession is behind us.

USD Mixed on Capital-Market Selloffs

Hans Nilsson2009-05-27

The dollar traded mixed on increased geopolitical risk and sell-offs in the US bond and equity markets on Wednesday. The geopolitical risk rose as North Korea threatened a military response to any attempts to seize its weapons of mass destruction. US bonds and mortgage yields climbed to the highest level since the late 2008 on supply and inflation concerns.

Dollar Falls to Support on Surging Consumer Sentiment

Hans Nilsson2009-05-26

After gaining overnight on reports of North Korea's nuclear test and missile launches, the dollar pared its gains on Tuesday on the Conference Board May report that US consumer expectations for economic activity over the next six months jumped to the highest level since December 2007.

USD Falls on Debt Issuance Concerns

Hans Nilsson2009-05-22

The dollar continued to fall on Friday as investors worried about the magnitude of US debt issuance. Yesterday's warning by PIMCO's Bill Gross that the US will "eventually" lose its AAA credit rating prompted White House spokesman Robert Gibbs to say that the US does not believe its triple-A credit rating will be cut.

Dollar Hit by Liquidity Concerns

Hans Nilsson2009-05-21

The dollar fell for a fourth day versus most major currencies on improving risk sentiment and more signs of a global economic recovery. The Conference Board US LEI signals a US economic recovery (finally catching up with our Globicus LEI forecast), while US initial jobless claims, considered a coincident or lagging indicator at recoveries, have likely peaked.

Greenback Falls For Third day

Hans Nilsson2009-05-20

Greenback Falls as Risk Measures Decline

Hans Nilsson2009-05-19

The dollar fell on Tuesday on improving risk sentiment. The greenback’s safe-haven demand declined as three major US banks sought to return government TARP funds as the banking sectors improved. The LIBOR interbank borrowing rate fell to a record low.

Signs of Global Economic Recovery Boost Risk Appetite

Hans Nilsson2009-05-18

The dollar and yen fell on Monday as risk appetite improved on more signs the global economy is stabilizing. US stocks rose, driving the S&P 500 index by 26.83 points to 909.71. Indian stock prices surged, following Congress election landslide win, as hopes of more free-market reforms in India improved investor sentiment.

JPY and USD Gain on Increased Risk Aversion

Hans Nilsson2009-05-15

The dollar rose against most major currencies but fell versus the yen on Friday on mixed economic data. Both eurozone and German GDPs contracted the most on record in Q1 2009, while US industrial production fell the least since October and consumer confidence rose to its highest level since September.

Dollar Index at Important Support

Hans Nilsson2009-05-14

The dollar and yen reversed overnight gains as US stocks advanced on Thursday. US initial jobless claims rose more than expected on large layoffs in the auto sector, while producer prices increased modestly.

Greenback and Yen Gain as Risk Aversion Returns

Hans Nilsson2009-05-13

The dollar and yen rose on Wednesday as disappointing global economic data dented hopes that the world economy had stopped its decline. US retail sales unexpectedly fell; eurozone industrial production posted a record year-on-year drop; and the Bank of England reduced its growth and inflation projections.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.