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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson

Canadian Dollar Gains on BOC’s Hawkish Comment

Hans Nilsson2010-09-08

The dollar traded mostly lower on Wednesday as European bank worries eased following a successful Portuguese debt auction. The Federal Reserve’s Beige book indicated the pace of US economic growth is slowing. “Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggested continued growth in national economic activity during the reporting period of mid-July through the end of August, but with widespread signs of a deceleration compared with preceding periods,” the Fed said.

European Bank Worries Pressure EUR/USD

Hans Nilsson2010-09-07

The dollar, while falling against the yen and Swiss franc, rose versus other major counterparts on Tuesday on renewed concern about the European financial system. European bank stress tests understated banks’ holdings of sovereign debts, Wall Street Journal reported. Yields in Germany and the US fell while those in Portugal and Ireland rose.

Dollar Index Falls to Support on Better Job Data

Hans Nilsson2010-09-03

The dollar, while rising against the yen and Swiss franc, fell versus other key counterparts after better-thanexpected US employment data eased concern of a double-dip recession. For the week, all the major crosses except sterling rose against the greenback. Private-sector payrolls grew more than expected in August and job losses in July and June were revised down, while the August ISM non-manufacturing index fell to the lowest level in seven months.

USD Modestly Lower Ahead of Employment Data

Hans Nilsson2010-09-02

The dollar traded mostly lower on Thursday ahead of important US employment data on Friday. The dollar index, down for six out of the last seven days, is approaching the important 82 support. If this support holds, a short-term USD rally may occur. Treasuries weakened. US pending home sales unexpectedly rose in July and initial jobless claims declined, easing concern about slowing US economic growth. The S&P 500 gained 9.81 to 1,090.10.

AUD/USD Surges on Better Economic Growth

Hans Nilsson2010-09-01

The dollar and yen fell on Wednesday as risk appetite increased after stronger-than-expected economic data alleviated fear on global economic slowdown. PMI manufacturing data for China and the US were better than anticipated. Investors paid less attention on ADP’s forecast of a 10K drop in August US nonfarm private payrolls and a larger-than-expected decline in July construction spending.

GBP/USD Will Fall Further

Hans Nilsson2010-08-31

The dollar was higher against the pound on Tuesday but lower versus the yen and Swiss franc. The Federal Open Market Committee August 10 meeting minutes, released today, showed that while some Fed officials were concerned the economy was weakening, there was no plan to resume large asset buys and the Fed’s decision to reinvest the proceeds of mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries earlier this month was a signal of steady monetary policy.

Dollar Index May Rally to 85

Hans Nilsson2010-08-30

The dollar traded lower versus the yen on Monday but higher against other major currencies on continued global recovery concerns. US consumer spending accelerated in July but income growth was less than expected, indicating the economic recovery is fragile. Optimism among Texas manufactures dropped to the lowest level since March 2009. The S&P 500 fell 15.67 to 1,048.92, reversing Friday’s gains.

Yen Falls as Risk Aversion Eases

Hans Nilsson2010-08-27

The dollar traded mixed on Friday, higher against the yen but lower versus the commodity currencies as risk appetite rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is prepared to provide additional unconventional stimulus measures if needed. US GDP growth slowed less than expected in Q2 2010. The S&P 500 rose 17.37 to 1,064.59. The EUR/USD was up modestly. Germany’s consumer-price inflation eased in August. The GBP/USD edged lower.

EUR/USD Breaks Downtrend

Hans Nilsson2010-08-26

The dollar traded lower versus most of its rivals on Thursday. US initial jobless claims fell for the first week in four. The US government concluded another successful series of auctions, selling $102 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes this week at record-low yields. The S&P 500 declined 8.11 to 1,047.22. The USD/JPY was down slightly.

Dollar Index Consolidates Gains ahead of Bernanke’s Talk

Hans Nilsson2010-08-25

The dollar was higher against the yen on Wednesday but lower versus other major currencies. Further signs of slowing US economic growth pressured the greenback. US durable goods orders rose less than anticipated in July and new home sales dropped to the weakest level on record, increasing the risk of a double-dip recession. The S&P 500 gained 3.46 to 1,055.33, erasing early declines. The USD/JPY recovered from yesterday’s 15-year low. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said: “We have to take appropriate action when necessary....My basic understanding is that movements have been one-sided.”

Global Economic Worries Boost Yen to 15-Year High

Hans Nilsson2010-08-24

Concern over slowing global economic growth pressured the dollar versus the yen on Tuesday while boosting the greenback against other major currencies. US treasuries rallied, commodity prices fell and stock prices plunged. A record drop in July US existing-home sales added to investor pessimism and pared the dollar’s gain.

EUR/USD Will Drop to 1.25

Hans Nilsson2010-08-23

The dollar advanced against most of its counterparts on Monday. The S&P 500 declined 4.33 to 1,067.36 as worries about US economic growth overshadowed economic optimism. The USD/JPY fell and approached recent lows. The yen gained after Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said currency intervention was not discussed between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa in their telephone conference today.

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Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, LLC. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, LLC with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, LLC accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.