For September (s.a.)
Provided by: European Central Bank

Current Account (n.s.a.): -6.0B, pr. -6.0B (rev from -7.9B, Aug), -1.1B (Jul),
-1.0B (Jun), -21.4B (May), -9.2B (Apr)

Sales m/m: -3.1%, forecast -2.9%, pr. 4.7% (rev from 5.5%, Sep),
-2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun), 2.0% (May), -1.0% (Apr)
Median Home Price: $183,300, pr. $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug),
$212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun), $208,600 (May)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales declined on the heels of a strong gain in September as uncertainty and economic concerns increased in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.14 million in September, and are 1.6 percent below the 5.06 million-unit level in October 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said consumer hesitation is understandable. “Many potential home buyers appear to have withdrawn from the market due to the stock market collapse and deteriorating economic conditions,” he said. “We have favorable affordability conditions, but we need more than that to give buyers with jobs the confidence they need. This is why a housing stimulus is so critical now to encourage more buyers to draw down the inventory and stabilize home prices. Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery.”

CSPI m/m: -1.2%, pr. -0.4% (Sep), -0.5% (Aug), 0.0% (Jul), 0.6% (Jun),
0.2% (May), 0.1% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar)

The prices that Japanese companies pay for services, such as transportation, financial services and insurance, advertising, ect., fell 1.4% in October compared to a year ago. Its the first time that the corporate service price index has been negative in more than two years. The biggest fall in prices was the cost for transporting goods. Services such as ocean freight, ship chartering and international air freight fell 1.78%. These were the same goods where prices were sky rocketing earlier in the summer when crude oil costs hit record highs near $150 a barrel. Now oil prices are at the $50 level, as the global crisis in financial markets has put the world's major economies to recession. The demand for oil, and its price, has gone down as the world's economies began contracting. 

Final Version for 3rd Quarter (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

GDP w.d.a. y/y: 0.8%, prel. 0.8%, pr. 1.7% (2Q), 2.6% (1Q), 1.8% (4Q)
GDP n.s.a. y/y: 1.3%, prel. 1.3%, pr. 3.1% (2Q), 1.8% (1Q), 1.6% (4Q)

For October
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

Figures for Swiss consumption fell significantly in October, painting a gloomy picture going forward for the economy. With exports to the Euro-zone and others shrinking, and the financial sector straining, consumer spending has been the key driver in recent growth. But as unemployment begins to creep up and the economy slows, consumers and firms are scaling back purchases. The indicator's fall to 1.316 is the first time in two and half years that the index has dropped below its long term average.  

From the Release: "After a slight increase in September, the UBS consumption indicator noticeably fell in October. At 1.32, it dropped below its long-term average value for the first time in two and a half years. The outlook for private consumption in Switzerland is thus becoming increasingly dim.

The monthly UBS consumption indicator significantly fell from 1.64 to 1.32 in October. Following a slight increase in September, the indicator thus continued its declining trend of previous months, falling below the year-long average of 1.50 for the first time since April 2006."

Business Investment y/y: -0.5%, forecast -2.2%, pr. 1.2% (2Q), 4.5% (1Q),
3.7% (4Q)

Figures on business investment surprised forecasts on the upside, decreasing only 0.2%, when expectations had investment dropping by 1.8%. Still, its the 3rd quarter that businesses have scaled back investment in the face of sharply weakening demand, rising levels of spare capacity, worsening cash flows and very tight credit conditions, deteriorating profitability, and serious concerns and uncertainties about the potential length and depth of the recession.

Monthly Rate for September
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release 

Sales ex Autos: 0.8%, forecast 0.2%, pr. -0.2% (rev from -0.3%) 

The Loonie jumped today as retail sales came in much higher than expected and forex markets continued the risk appetite sentiment in early NY trading that we saw yesterday. The Loonie broached the 1.2125 area after a 300 pip rally against the Greenback and is now down almost 850 pips from its levels seen on Friday. 

From the Release: "Retail sales totalled $36.3 billion in September, up 1.1% from August and the strongest rise in sales in eight months. Sales by new car dealers were up for the first time since January, accounting for most of this growth.

Sales in the automotive sector were 2.2% higher in September, largely owing to a 2.9% increase in sales by new car dealers. The number of units sold in September was up for both passenger cars and trucks, according to the New Motor Vehicle Sales Survey.

The 1.7% rise in sales by gasoline stations in September continued the strong upward trend, driven by gasoline prices, that has been observed since September 2007. For used and recreational motor vehicle and parts dealers (including tire dealers), the rise in sales in September was the fourth in five months.

Increases of over 1.0% were also posted by the general merchandise stores sector and the food and beverage stores sector. These rises were influenced by the rapid growth in food prices since early 2008.

The most substantial decrease in sales in September was in the building and outdoor home supplies stores sector. This was the first drop in sales in this sector since April 2008."

10-City Index y/y: -18.6%, pr. -17.7% (Aug), -17.5% (Jul), -17.0% (Jun),
-16.9% (May), -16.3% (Apr)

Housing prices continued to fall in September, with the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index falling to new record lows, with annual declines of 18.6% for the 10-city index, and 17.4% for the 20-city index. Falling house prices will continue to pressure consumer spending as in addition to falling stocks Americans feel less wealthy. The economy will be hard pressed to get back on its feet if housing continues to perform poorly. Lower prices can help bring in more buyers but with banks reluctant to lend there has not been a pick up in home sales.

From the Release: "Data through September 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007.

The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to set new records, with annual declines of 18.6% and 17.4%, respectively.

“The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. Looking at the returns of the U.S. National Index, prices are back to where they were in early 2004. As of September 2008, the 10-City Composite is down 23.4% from its peak, the 20-City Composite is down 21.8% and the National Composite is down 21.0%.”

For November
Provided by: Conference Board
Current Release: Consumer Confidence Survey

Present Situation Index: 42.2, pr. 43.5 (Oct), 61.1 (Sep), 65.0 (Aug),
65.8 (Jul), 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May)
Expectations Index: 46.7, pr. 35.7 (Oct) 61.5 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 42.7 (Jul),
41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May)

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to 44.9 in November, from its all-time low of 38.0 in October. The expectations index increased to 46.7, as the present situation index fell slightly. Despite the improvement, consumer confidence is still at a very low level. The 4th quarter should expect weak consumer spending (it fell 3.7% in today's 3rd quarter GDP release), which will mean less economic activity and weaker results on Wall Street.

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
Official Release: PDF

HPI y/y: -7.0%, pr. -5.9% (Aug), -5.3% (Jul), -4.8% (Jun), -4.8% (May),
-4.6% (Apr), -3.1% (Mar)

Housing prices, as measured by sales and refinancing data obtained from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were down 1.3% for the month of September, and down an annual rate of 7%. The decline in the monthly rate was larger than expected by economists and shows that the housing market has yet to stabilize in the face of worsening economic conditions. For the 3rd quarter, prices were down 1.8%, following a 1.4% decline in the second quarter and the largest in the purchase-only index's 17-year history.

Preliminary Version of 3rd Quarter (2nd Release)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

GDP y/y: 0.3%, adv. 0.3%, pr. 1.4% (2Q), 2.3% (1Q), 2.8% (4Q '07)

From the Release: "Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2008, compared to flat growth of 0.0 per cent in the previous quarter. The level of GDP is now 0.3 per cent higher than the third quarter of 2007.

The output of the production industries fell 1.1 per cent, driven by a fall of 1.3 per cent in manufacturing.

Output of services fell by 0.4 per cent. The decline was most significant in distribution and business services.

Household expenditure fell 0.2 per cent. The biggest movement was in transport, where purchases of motor vehicles fell markedly.

Government final consumption rose by 1.0 per cent and is now 2.7 per cent higher than the third quarter of 2007.

Gross fixed capital formation fell 2.4 per cent and is now
5.4 per cent below the third quarter of 2007. Most notable, were falls in investment on new dwellings and spending related to house purchases.

The trade deficit in real terms increased over the quarter. Growth in exports of goods and services contracted 0.3 per cent whereas imports rose 0.1 per cent."

Ex. Trans.: -4.4%, pr. -1.1% (Sep), -3.0% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul), 2.0% (Jun)
Ex. Defense: -4.6%, pr. -0.6% (Sep), -5.0% (Aug), 2.8% (Jul), 0.1% (Jun)
Non-defense Capital Goods ex. Aircraft: -4.0%, pr. -1.4% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug), 2.6% (Jul),
1.3% (Jun)

Durable goods orders fell 6.2% in October, the steepest decline in demand in two years. Durable goods orders show the willingness of companies and firms to make big ticket, long term purchases. A key measure of capital investment fell 4%, as companies restrain their investment spending in the face of weaker economic activity. Another big problem was a limited access to credit, which tightened up in October. Demand for durable goods in the transportation sector decreased 11.1%, after rising 6.1% in September. Excluding transportation, orders were down 4.4%. The release paints an ominous picture of the type of data and growth is in store for the 4th quarter.

For October
Provided by: Commerce Department
Current Release: News Release

Personal incomes grew 0.3% in October, after a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in September. However personal spending fell 1% in October, the steepest fall in consumer spending in seven years. That put personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income was 2.4%, up from 1.0% in September. Consumer and households are worried about the economic outlook. October saw the acceleration of stock market losses and the intensification of the global financial crisis. In that environment, and with job losses mounting and housing prices continuing to suffer as well, consumer scaled back purchases in a large way.

For October
Provided by: Commerce Department

PCE m/m: -0.6%
Core PCE y/y: 2.1%, forecast 2.2%, pr. 2.4% (Sep), 2.6% (Aug), 2.4% (Jul),
PCE Deflator y/y: 3.2%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 4.2% (Sep), 4.5% (Aug), 4.5% (Jul)

Part of the report on personal income and spending, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index decreased 0.6% in October. The core PCE price index remained unchanged, as food and energy prices are stripped out. Falling energy prices have been a major catalyst in dropping consumer prices as consumers can fill up their tank for cheaper and face lower heating oil costs. On the year, core PCE declined to 2.1%, lower than expectations. The Fed closely monitors this indicator and will realize they have leeway to cut rates further if that is what's necessary to help the economy recover. 

For November
Provided by: Kingsbury
Previous Release: PDF

Prices Paid Index: 50.7, pr. 53.7 (Oct), 80.7 (Sep), 80.6 (Aug), 90.7 (Jul)
New Orders Index: 27.2, pr. 32.5 (Oct), 53.9 (Sep), 60.2 (Aug), 53.5 (Jul)
Deliveries: 48.4, pr. 47.5 (Oct), 55.0 (Sep), 55.1 (Aug), 60.8 (Jul)
Employment: 33.4, pr. 41.5 (Oct), 49.1 (Sep), 39.2 (Aug), 45.9 (Jul)

The Chicago PMI deteriorated further, posting a 33.8 reading for November, a 4 point reduction from the 37.8 seen in October. New orders and employment decreased for the month as the economy weakens and consumers and firms purchase less goods. Smaller orders are then hurting employment as companies layoff workers as they adjust to the new realities. The deliveries sub-gauge increased slightly from October, while prices took another step back. The price paid sub-gauge fell to 50.7, it had been as high as 90.7 in July. 

Current Index: 57.5, prel. 61.4, pr. 58.4 (Oct), 75.0 (Sep), 71.0 (Aug)
Expectations: 53.9, prel. 55.7, pr. 57.0 (Oct), 67.2 (Sep), 57.9 (Aug)
12-Mo Infl.: 2.9%, prel. 2.9%, pr. 3.9% (Oct), 4.3% (Sep), 4.8% (Aug)
5-Yr Infl.: 2.9%, prel. 2.9%, pr. 2.9% (OCt), 3.0% (Sep), 3.2% (Aug)

The final version of November's consumer sentiment came in at 55.3, a sharp slide compared to the preliminary reading of 57.9. The difference between the mid-month release and the end of the month saw a deterioration in current conditions, and a drop in future expectations. Weak consumer confidence has translated into weaker spending as was seen by today's personal spending data which saw a decrease of 1% in October. Consumers are concerned about the global financial crisis, falling stocks and home prices, and an increase in unemployment.

From the Release: "Consumers have expressed the most pessimistic economic outlook in the past quarter century just as the holiday shopping season gets underway. Consumer confidence fell in the last half of November due to mounting job losses, falling incomes, and the evaporation of household wealth. There have been only two surveys during the past half century that found consumers more pessimistic than now, in April and May of 1980—the all-time low was 51.7, a mere 3.6 Index-points below the current figure. Consumers were unanimous in their recognition that the economy was in recession, and nearly three-in-four expected the recession to deepen in the months ahead. The economic downturn was anticipated to prompt a stunning decline in the inflation rate: 39% of all consumers in November expected a zero inflation rate or outright deflation, up from just 5% six months ago. Even the plunge in gas prices was unable to overcome consumers’ heightened uncertainty about future job and income prospects. Although their reluctance to make discretionary purchases is primarily due to job and income uncertainty, consumers’ desire to increase their saving and reserve funds as well as stringent limitation of the availability of credit will also curtail spending. Overall, the data indicate the bleakest holiday spending season since 1980, with declines in consumer spending lasting until the 4th quarter of 2009. Total consumption expenditures are expected to fall by about -1.0% in 2009."