Forex Capsule - Interactive Economic Calendar and Data

Home

About CMS

Forex Services

Trading Software

Forex Education

Forex Resources

Market Analysis

Forex Capsule

Forex Commentaries

Forex Charts

Currency Rates

Video News and Analysis

Live Forex Tools

My Account

Institutional Clients

Hourly Chart for Week of ...

Select Archived Week

Theme of the Week - November 9, 2008 to November 14, 2008

Risk Aversion Dominates Early Part of Week: The Yen and Dollar rose in the first half of the week as global stocks suffered in the face of weak data from the major economies and fears of a grizzly 4th quarter earnings season.
Pound Pressured on Recession Fears: The Pound fell to a 6-year low against the Dollar and a new record low against the Euro on Wednesday after BOE Governor Mervyn King said interest rates could drop much lower than the current 3% if necessary. Concerns over inflation have given way to worries that the UK may be facing a prolonged recession.
US Stock Rally on Thursday Fizzles as Retail Sales Fall by Record Amount: Thursday's session saw US stocks rally, with the Dow Jones index up 450 points after briefly falling below the 8,000 level. Friday saw those gains halved after Friday's data showed US retail sales decline by a record low of 2.8% in October. Consumers are scaling back spending as the job market, which saw jobless claims climb to a 7-year high, gets tighter and the economic outlook continues to look weak.

« Previous Week's Recap Next Week's Recap »

Sunday, November 09
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPN	6:50pm	Core Machinery Orders m/m	5.5%	4.9%	-14.5%
		For September Provided by: Cabinet Office Official Release: HTML Core Machinery Orders q/q: -10.4%, pr. 0.6% (Apr-Jun), 2.2%(Jan-Mar) Machinery orders, excluding the volatile ones such as those for ships and electric power companies, rebounded in the month of September. This however only partially offsets the major declines in the past 2 months, making orders down 10.4% in the July-September quarter. Total orders fell 3.0% on the month, and 10.1% compared to the previous quarter. The Cabinet office expects orders to rebound a bit in the final quarter of the year From the release: In the October-December period the total amount of machinery orders was forecasted to fall by 3.1% and private-sector orders, excluding volatile ones, were forecasted to increase by 1.2% from the previous quarter respectively. This forecast was basically made by summing up the figures from 280 machinery manufacturers.
AUS	7:30pm	Home Loans m/m	-2.7%	-2.7%	-2.1% Revised from -2.2%
		For September Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian housing financing declined in September according to the ABS. The number of "dwelling commitments" in seasonally adjusted terms fell by 2.7% on the month, while the trend estimate also declined 1.9%. The dollar value of these home loans fell 1.6% in seasonally adjusted terms and 1.1% in trend estimates.This is the eighth month that the number of loans have declined. Since January, home loans have dropped off from the of 67,213 to at least a 7-year low of 47,435, a drop of 29.4%. The RBA's interest rate cuts have yet to show their effects for the economy. The bank has cut a total of 200 basis points in 3 meetings since September, as the economic gloom presses on.
AUS	7:30pm	RBA Quarterly Statement
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Official Release: Statement From the Release: "In summary, world financial market developments and economic prospects have moved rapidly in the period since the last Statement. At its recent meetings, the Board noted that domestic economic conditions had been evolving broadly as expected in the period immediately prior to the latest bout of financial turmoil. With the needed moderation in demand occurring, the Board judged at its September meeting that inflation was likely to decline gradually over time, and that this allowed scope to begin moving the cash rate towards a less restrictive setting. The renewed financial turmoil which began in the second week of September materially altered the balance of risks and raised the prospect that global economic conditions could be significantly weaker than previously assumed. That, in turn, would mean weaker prospects for demand and output in Australia, and greater downward pressure on inflation over time. In view of this shift in the balance of risks, the Board judged at its October and November meetings that a significantly more rapid adjustment of the monetary policy setting was needed, and hence the Board decided to make unusually large reductions in the cash rate at those two meetings. In reviewing the stance of policy each month in the period ahead, the Board will be seeking to strike the appropriate balance between avoiding an unduly sharp weakening in demand and the need for inflation to fall back to the target over a reasonable period."

Monday, November 10 \| AUD/JPY - Aussie Down As Earlier Gains as Stock Gains in Asia, Europe Give Way to Losses in US: Stocks in Asia rose today as China unveiled a plan to spend half a trillion dollars on a fiscal stimulus plan spanning over two years. The plan is expected to increase demand for commodities as much of its spending will go to infrastructure projects. The news helped boost carry trade pairs like the Aussie-Yen higher during the Asian session. However as trading entered the NY session, risk aversion came back to the forefront as the Aussie slid 380 pips from its high near 69.40. EUR/CHF - Euro Tests 1.5165 Before Turning Back in NY: Stocks in Europe were up as well, as mining companies led a rally. However, key indexes gave up some of their gains in later trading. The Euro-Swiss Franc pair, rose to test 1.5165, its high from last week, but was turned back in NY trading. EUR/GBP - Euro Touches New All Time High vs Pound: The Euro-Pound pair has been very volatile the last 2 months. Today's price action saw the pair set a new record high above the 0.82 level. With the Bank of England aggressively cutting rates last week, the Euro now has an interest-rate differential advantage against the Pound. USD/JPY - Yen Gains on Dollar During NY Trading as Early Stock Gains Melt Away: US stocks opened higher, but were unable to maintain any of those gains with the Dow Jones index sliding into the red around noon. Risk aversion pushed the Dollar-Yen pair 180 pips lower than its intra-day high near 99.50. USD/CAD - Greenback Tests 1.1960 vs Loonie on Risk Aversion: The US Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair rose to the 1.1960 level in NY trading, retesting the level near Friday's high. Oil prices though initially boosted by the Beijing stimulus plan, were close to $62 a barrel, similar to where it started the session. The turn to risk aversion in the NY session weakened the Loonie in today's trading. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: US Recession Is Deepening Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPN	1:00am	Machinery Tool Orders y/y	-40.4%		-20.1% Revised from -20.7%
SWZ	1:45am	SECO Consumer Climate	-27	-28	-17
		For October Provided by: State Secretariatfor Economic Affairs Swiss consumer confidence fell to a 5-year low according to SECO, falling from -17 to -27. This may be slightly better than economists' forecasts, but it is only because current conditions aren't as bad as the outlook. This means, consumers believe times will get much harder in the coming year. More rate cuts are expected, amidst a global effort of central banks to stimulate their economies through cheap lending.
EMU	4:30am	Sentix Investor Confidence	-36.4	-34.0	-27.8
		For November Provided by: Sentix The Sentix survey which measures investor sentiments dropped from -27.8 to a fresh record low of -36.4 in the November publication. This is the 5th straight month the index was at a negative level, and survey has yielded increasingly pessimistic results. The current one was mainly affected by the outlook in the auto industry which has cut back production and work ours and looks to shed jobs.
UK	4:30am	Producer Price Index Input	-5.6%	-2.6%	-1.7% Revised from -1.2%
		For October Provided by: Office of National Statistics PPI Input y/y: 13.8%, forecast 18.0%, pr. 24.0% (rev from 24.5% - Sep), 28.8% (Aug), 30.1% (Jul), 30.8% (Jun) PPI Output y/y: 6.8%, forecast 7.4%, pr. 8.5% (Aug), 9.1% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun)
UK	4:30am	Producer Price Index Output	-1.0%	-0.4%	-0.2% Revised from -0.3%
		For October Provided by Office of National Statistics (ONS) PPI Output y/y: 6.8%, forecast 7.4%, pr. 8.5% (Sep), 8.5% (Aug), 10.2% (Jul), 10.8% (Jun) PPI Output Core m/m: -0.5%, forecast -0.2%, pr. -0.5% (rev. -0.1% Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul) PPI Output Core y/y: 4.9%, forecast 5.1%, pr. 5.5% (rev. 5.4% Sep) 5.6% (Aug), 6.8% (Jul) UK factory prices declined more than expected in October. Output prices fell 1% on the month as oil prices and scrap metal costs fell. On the year, prices were 6.8% higher, but this is was still a deceleration from September. The monthly decrease of 1% was the largest decrease since records began in1986. Petroleum prices were down 5.6% on the month, the highest monthly drop since May 1986. Input prices were down 5.6%, but was 13.8% higher than in October of last year. That was also the largest monthly decrease and the sharpest slowdown in the in the rate of annual increase since comparable records began in 1986.
CAN	8:15am	Housing Starts	212K	202K	219K Revised from 218K
		For October Provided by: Mortgage and Housing Corporation Current Release: News Release The annual rate of Canadian housing starts fell slightly in October, but the number remains consistent with a relatively strong trend, compared to other developed nations such as the US and UK. Still for the first 10 months of 2008, actual starts were down an estimated 1.6% compared to the same period last year. From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 211,800 units in October, down from 218,600 units in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Housing starts remained strong in October and are consistent with our new home construction forecast for 2008,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “The slight decrease in housing starts is the result of declines in both single-detached and multiple starts in October.”
CAN	8:30am	New Housing Price Index	0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
		For September Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release HPI y/y: 2.1%, pr. 2.3% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul), 3.5 (Jun), 4.1% (May), 5.2% (Apr), 6.1% (Mar) From the Release: "The New Housing Price Index increased 2.1% in September on a year-over-year basis, a slower pace than the 2.3% advance in August. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1% between August and September, resulting in a New Housing Price Index of 158.7 (1997=100). The largest year-over-year increases were in St. John's and Regina, both with increases of 22.7%. However, both of these cities registered no monthly change in September. Also, both cities were down from record highs in 2008, with Regina down from its peak of 34.0% in April and St. John's down from 24.3% in July."
EMU	9:30am	ECB President Trichet Speaks
		Due to hold a press conference following Bank for International Settlements meeting.
USA	10:00am	Assist Treasury Sec Kashkari Speaks
		Due to speak about Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in New York.
JPN	6:50pm	Current Account	1.49T	1.40T	0.98T
		For September Unadjusted Provided by: Ministry of Finance Current Release: Table of Balance of Payments Current Account (s.a.): 0.97T, forecast 1.02T, pr. 0.90T (Aug), 1.55T (Jul), 1.29T (Jun), 2.032T (May), 1.51T (Apr) Trade Balance - BOP Basis: 0.247, pr. -0.236T (Aug), 0.232T (Jul), 0.252T (Jun), 0.529T (May), 0.634T (Apr) The current account surplus widened in September compared to the previous month, expanding from ¥0.98T to ¥1.49T. However, in the past six months, import growth (17.8%) has outpaced export growth (3.1%) almost 6 times. Thus, looking at the year-on-year figures, the current account surplus has actually shrank by 48.8%. Economists have expected bigger decline as imports are growing faster than exports admist the global slowdown. Besides the prolonged American and emergence of European slowdown, surging oil prices in the past 12 months have contributed significantly to the decline of the Japanese current account.
JPN	6:50pm	M2+CD Money Supply y/y	1.8%	2.2%	2.2%
		For October (preliminary) Provided b: Bank of Japan Previous Release: PDF Money Supply M3 y/y: 0.6%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 0.9% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug), 0.8% (Jul) Bank Lending Banks s.a. y/y: 3.0%, pr. 2.2% (Sep), 2.4% (Aug), 2.5 (Jul) Bank Lending incl Trusts y/y: 2.2%, pr. 1.6% (Sep), 1.8% (Aug), 1.8% (Jul) Bank Lending Banks ex. Trust y/y: 2.5%, pr. 1.8% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 2.0% (Jul)
UK	7:01pm	BRC Retail Sales y/y	-2.2%		-1.5%
		For October Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC) Official Release: Press Release Official Release: PDF The BRC measuring sales on a like-for-like basis posted a 2.2% decline on the year. This was the fifth straight month of declining sales, and was the biggest yearly drop since May 2005. Total sales, including new shops, fell 0.1% on the year. Consumer confidence is deteriorating despite general approval of government rescue plans and interest rate cuts. Much like last month, food and drinks which were on the defensive admist the slowdown and remained the only category that saw increases in sales. From the Release: • "UK retail sales values fell 2.2% on a like-for-like basis, from October 2007, when they had risen 1.0%. Total sales were lower than a year ago for the first time since April 2005. • As in previous months, food and drink was the only sector to show sales significantly up on a year ago. Clothing and footwear remained poor and often discount-driven, despite colder and much wetter weather than last October. Furniture and homewares fell further below year-earlier levels, despite further discounts and promotions. • Discounts and promotions continued but often failed to tempt customers unless they perceived value or the purchases filled a need. • Non-food non-store sales in October were 16.6% higher than year ago. Online sales fell on the days after the banking crisis hit, as consumers were anxious about their financial outlook."
UK	7:01pm	RICS House Price Balance	-82.0%	-86.0%	-84.2%
		For October Provided by: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Official Release: Press Release Official Release: PDF On a year-to-year basis, house prices declined less than expected in October, but remained pressured due to the large inventory of unsold homes according the RICS. Also, completed sales per surveyor in the last three months fell to the lowest level (10.9) since records began in 1978. Housing indicators in general point to futher decline in prices and activity, but on the bright side some housing indicators such as new buyer enquiries are pointing to a deceleration in the drop of activity during Q2 and Q3. In the near term though, the housing market is stuck in this anemic gear and will need until at least the summer of next year for the interest rate cuts to take effect. From the Rlease: "The RICS Housing Market Survey for October shows a modest improvement in the price balance, although it remains at a historically low level. It also recorded a further fall in the level of transactions. Significantly, however, lead activity indicators (new buyer enquiries and sales expectations) both picked up further during the month. The (seasonally adjusted) net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather than rising prices improved slightly from -84.5 to - 81.8 in October. The price balance has been fluctuating around the low -80s level since July. The main factor that is depressing prices is the large stock of property on estate agents books relative to the pool of able buyers, rather than any surge in distressed selling. Indeed, new instructions to sell property continue to fall in aggregate."
AUS	7:30pm	NAB Business Confidence	-29		-8
		For October Provided by: National Australian Bank Previous Release: PDF (...Save Link As) Bus. Conditions: -11, pr. -1 (Sep), -3 (Aug), -5 (Jul), 0 (Jun), 7 (May), 7 (Apr), 7 (Mar), 11 (Feb), 13 (Jan) Business confidence in October fell to a record low as the RBA's rate cutting campaign has yet to provide relief amidst the financial turmoil and global slowdown. The confidence index fell from -8 in September, to -29 in October. The business conditions index also fell, from -1 to -11. The subindexes all showed significant drawdowns: Future orders -20 from -9, sales -10 from 1, profitability -13 from -4, and employment falling from -2 to -10, the lowest since 2001. Exports orders is the only index that gained, as the Australian dollar depreciated significantly in recent months.

Tuesday, November 11 \| AUD/USD - Aussie Falls on Weaker Stocks, Continued Unwind of Carry Trade: The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell the most in two weeks against the greenback as stocks slumped on the worsening outlook for company earnings, prompting investors to sell higher-yielding assets. From an intra-day high yesterday near 0.70 the pair has dropped below 0.65, a 500 pip swing in 2 sessions. The clear failure to break the 0.70 level spells further weakness for the Aussie ahead. EUR/USD - Euro Falls to 1.25 vs Dollar on Sinking Risk Appetite: Despite the better than expected ZEW report from Germany and the Euro-zone, the Euro-Dollar pair fell strongly in favor of the greenback in today's NY trading. After trading near 1.2750 overnight, the pair broke down more than 200 pips to set a new low near 1.2510. This pushed past support at 1.2550 which was the low from last week. EUR/JPY - Euro Slides vs Yen on Weak Stocks: European stocks fell today, snapping two days of gains, as banks and oil shares fell amid more downbeat data on the economy, and oil falling below $60 a barrel. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index declined almost 4%, while the UK FTSE 100 index was down 3.6%. The Euro-Yen which fell about 360 pips yesterday from its high near 128.60, saw another 270 pip fall today as stocks in the US followed those in Europe into the red. GBP/USD - Pound Continues Sliding vs Dollar, Hits 1.54: The Pound continued it's decent against the Dollar, falling below 1.54 to set a 3-week low. Support at the 1.5570 level was broken overnight, and NY trading saw the pair fall as the greenback gained from risk aversion and flight to safe assets. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: Euro and Sterling Testing Supports Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPN	12:00am	Eco Watchers Survey	22.6	27.4	28.0
		For October Provided by: Economy Watchers Outlook: 25.2, pr. 32.1 (Sep), 32.0 (Aug), 30.8 (Jul) A survey of workers such as taxi drivers, hotel staff, barbers, and other services showed that Japanese consumer sentiments have declined for the 7th straight month in October. The Eco Watcher survey's sentiment index fell to 22.6, after a reading of 28.0 in September. The survey also revealed that the future outlook index fell to 25.2 from 32.1.
GER	2:00am	Wholesale Price Index m/m	-1.5%	-1.0%	-0.6%
		For October Provided by: Federal Statistics Office Official Release: Press Release WPI y/y: 3.6%, pr. 5.8% (Sep), 7.4% (Aug), 9.9% (Jul), 8.9% (Jun), 8.1% (May) October prices are generally lower than September prices, but inflation has eased nevertheless as the decline of 1.5% in wholesale prices outpaced the 1.0% decline expected by economists. This was the eventual effects that central banks around the world expected. The global slowdown has depressed demand for oil and other commodities, bringing down the inflation that kept the banks from being nimble enough to try to stimulate the economy. From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of selling prices in wholesale trade increased 3.6% in October 2008 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In September 2008 and in August 2008, the annual rates of change were +5.8% and +7.4%, respectively. The declined rise of the annual rate of change is partially due to a base level effect: The price increase observed for October 2007 as compared with September 2007 leads to a lower year on year rate."
UK	4:30am	Trade Balance	-7.5B	-8.0B	-8.2B
		Visible Trade Balance for September Latest Release Provided by: National Statistics Office Official Release: PDF Total Trade Bal.: -£3.86B, forecast -£4.60B, pr. -£4.73B, -£4.46B (Jul), -£4.41B (Jun), -£4.25B (May), -£4.3B (Apr), -£4.03B (Mar) From the Release: "The deficit on trade in goods was £7.5 billion, compared with the revised deficit of £8.0 billion in August (which was originally published as a deficit of £8.2 billion). Exports rose by £0.6 billion and imports rose by £0.1 billion."
UK	4:30am	DCLG House Price Index y/y	-5.1%	-5.5%	-3.4%
		For September Provided by: Communities and Local Government Official Release: Press Release Official Release: PDF From the Release: "The key points from the release are: UK house prices were 5.1 per cent lower than in September 2007 The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK stood at £208,583 in September 2008 (not seasonally adjusted) UK house prices fell by 3.0 per cent in the quarter ending September 2008. This compares with a fall of 1.0 per cent for the quarter ending June 2008 Annual average house prices fell in England (-5.1 per cent), Wales (-5.2 per cent), Scotland (-0.8 per cent) and Northern Ireland (-15.8 per cent) Annual average house prices paid by first time buyers in September 2008 were 7.8 per cent lower than a year ago. By comparison average house prices paid by former owner occupiers were 4.0 per cent lower"
GER	5:00am	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-53.5	-62.5	-63.0
		For November Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Offficial Release: Press Release Current Conditions: -50.4, forecast -45.0, pr. -35.9 (Oct), -1.0 (Sep) From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany increased in November 2008 by 9.5 points. The indicator now stands at minus 53.5 points after minus 63.0 points in the previous month. This is still well below its historical average of 27.1 points. The increase of the economic sentiment indicator partly corrects the considerable decline of expectations following the turbulences on the financial markets in the previous month. The rescue package of the German government for the financial sector and the planned economic stimulus package seem to have slightly raised the confidence of the financial market experts compared to the previous month. Moreover, the worldwide interest rate cuts might also slow down the economic downturn. "The earlier pessimistic expectations of the financial market experts are confirmed by the current economic development in Germany. The experts, however, seem hopeful that the collective actions of governments and central banks will mitigate the economic slowdown", says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz."
EMU	5:00am	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-54.0	-60.0	-62.7
		For November Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Offficial Release: Press Release Current Conditions: -58.9, pr. -44.7 (Oct), -10 (Sep) From the Release: "The economic expectations for the euro zone increased in November. The indicator rose by 8.7 points and now stands at minus 54.0 points. The indicator for the current economic situation in the euro zone dropped by 14.2 points and now stands at minus 58.9 points."
USA	8:00am	Holiday: Veteran
CAN	8:00am	Holiday: Remembrance Day
AUS	6:30pm	WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m	4.3%		-11.0%
		For November Provided by: Westpac Melbourne Institute Current Release: PDF From the Release: "The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose by 4.3% in November from 82.0 in October to 85.5 in November. This is a welcome result. There has been great uncertainty as to how consumers would react to the barrage of news over the last month. The survey in October preceded the Reserve Bank's surprise decision to reduce its cash rate by a surprisingly large 1%. Of course that good news was followed by the announcement by the Commonwealth government of its $10.4bn stimulus package including cash payments of $8.7bn and a doubling of the first home owners grant for established homes and a tripling of the grant for new construction. This good news was followed last week by the Reserve Bank's second surprise reduction in its cash rate of a bold 0.75%. Furthermore the banks effectively matched the RBA's 1% cut in the cash rate with an effective 0.98% cut in the prime variable mortgage rate in two tranches. The banks have responded to the second 0.75% cut by the Reserve Bank with cuts ranging between 0.58% and 0.65%. Essentially since the last survey the prime variable mortgage rate has been reduced by 1.56% - 1.63%. On the other hand households have been unsettled by the ongoing disturbances in financial markets associated with the global credit crisis. All institutions regulated by APRA were given government guarantees which affected confidence in those institutions that did not receive the guarantees and restrictions were placed on the access of investors to their savings. Extensive media coverage of these events would have unnerved households. The value of savings in direct shares and superannuation was battered with the share price index falling by around 14%. News of house price declines and the prospect of a global recession would also have weighed heavily on sentiment. The Australian dollar fell as low as US 59 cents at one stage during the month. Despite this weakness in the Australian dollar the precipitous decline in the US dollar price of oil allowed a 12.5% fall in petrol prices."
AUS	7:30pm	Wage Price Index q/q	0.9%	1.0%	1.1% Revised from 1.2%
		For 3rd Quarter Provided by: Westpac Current Release: PDF WPI y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.2% (2Q), 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4Q '07), 4.2% (3Q '07) An easing of wage price inflation should help give the Reserve Bank of Australia more confidence in their recent rate cuts. From the Release: • "The headline Wage Price Index was below consensus in Q3, rising 0.9%qtr (consensus 1.0%) leaving annual growth steady at 4.1%yr for the third consecutive quarter. • The weaker quarterly result is largely a reflection of the continued saw-tooth pattern over the last two years due to the shifted timing of annual minimum wage decisions. The annual rate is least biased by this timing shift, and remains consistent with the RBA's rhetoric on wage inflation in the November SoMP, with annual growth above its historical average, but not accelerating over the past year. • The private sector WPI rose 0.9%qtr taking annual growth to 4.2%yr from 4.3%. The public WPI rose 0.9%qtr taking annual growth to 3.7%yr from 3.8%. • A broader measure than the headline WPI is for total hourly rates of pay including bonuses, which showed a further deceleration to 4.2%yr (vs 4.5% prev) for all sectors, with the private sector pace easing to 4.4%yr (vs 4.8% prev). • With headline WPI data consistent with the RBA's view, an easing in broader WPI wage measures, and the deteriorating outlook for the labour market, wage growth will remain no constraint on further monetary policy easings."

Wednesday, November 12 \| AUD/USD - Risk Aversion Hurts Aussie: The Aussie-US Dollar pair fell for a third consecutive session to start the week, reaching the 0.6350 level. That is a 560 pip slide from Monday's high near 0.70. The pair hit a intra-day high following its releases, but was pressured by risk aversion the rest of the session. EUR/GBP - Euro Sets New All Time High vs Pound: The Euro-Pound soared to a new record high today as the bank of England projected the economy will contract into the next year. Comments by Gordon Brown showed the Bank of England is ready to continue to cut interest rates in order to help economic growth as inflation fears melt away in the face of slowing economic activity and falling commodity prices. The pair rose 260 pips to test the area around 0.8410. GBP/JPY - Pound Slides Sharply vs Yen as King Leaves Door Open for More Rate Cuts: Global stocks were lower today as risk aversion continues to dominate the markets. With the Pound already pressured by its fundamental news another bout of unwinding of carry trade caused the Pound-Yen to slide 1,000 pips in today's session. The Pound accelerated its decline that had been more modest the last 5 sessions. It fell below the psychological whole number of 150 finding support only at the 141 level. Most of the fall came during the NY session where stocks were down increasing the unease amid investors. GBP/USD - Pound Falls 500 Pips vs Dollar on King's Comments: The Pound-Dollar broke slid almost 500 pips from its high near 1.5480 to find support at 1.4895. With the bank projecting a year-long recession, traders are dumping Pounds in greater numbers accelerating the Pound's losses. USD/JPY - Dollar Falls to Yen as US Stocks Fall Sharply: US stocks sunk today as investors continued to fret about the ailing financial and auto sectors. The Dow Jones index was down 400 points at the close. Treasury Secretary Paulson unveiled the latest details of the governments' rescue package. He is shelving the original plan to buy troubled mortgage assets and will instead focus on giving money to nonbank financial institutions and helping to unclog consumer finance. Still, the markets were not impressed and the Dollar-Yen pair, which follows equity sentiments closely, slid as much as 350 pips from high to low, and was trading near the 95 level as of 3:20 PM. USD/CAD - Loonie Pressured by Risk Aversion Fall in Oil Prices: In our final pair for today, the US Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair jumped 350 pips as risk aversion continues to hurt the Loonie this week. Oil prices came down more than $3, to trade near $56 a barrel. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: GBP/USD Falls To Six-Year Low Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPN	12:00am	Consumer Confidence	29.4	30.1	31.4
		"Household" Confidence for October Provided by: Cabinet Office Consumer Conf.: 29.8, pr. 31.8 Household confidence plunged to 29.4 in October from 31.4, bringing the index to its lowest level since records began in 1982. Consumers' moods are being pressured by the prolonged global financial turmoil and a weakening labor market. Weaker confidence will most likely translate to weak consumer spending, which in addition with falling demand for exports, bodes ill for the overall economy. The Yen however continues to increase against its rivals as risk aversion props up its value.
UK	4:30am	Claimant Count Change	36.5K	40.0K	36.3K Revised from 31.8K
		For October Provided by: Office of National Statistics Claimant Un. Rate: 3.0%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul), 2.6% (Jun), 2.6% (May) The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits rose 36.5K to 980.9K, the largest jump in almost 16 years. It was the ninth month that unemployment rose, and September saw its claimant count revised upward. The claimant unemployment rate rose to 3%, the highest since October 2006. Gordon Brown said the nation should prepare for worse as the economy will continue to contract into next year.
UK	4:30am	Average Earnings Index and Bonus q/y	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
		For 3 months to September Provided by: Office of National Statistics Ex. Bonus (q/y): 3.6%, forecast 3.6%, pr. 3.6% (Aug), 3.7% (Jul), 3.7% (Jun), 3.8% (May)
UK	4:30am	Unemployment Rate	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%
		For 3 months through September ILO Unemployment Rate Provided by: Office of National Statistics The ILO unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, the highest its been since Jan-March 2000, as the total number of people without a job rose to 1.825 million. The claimant count rose by its biggest margin since December 1992. 1992 was the last time the UK suffered a sever recession and the Bank of England has signaled it is ready to continue to cut rates as the dynamics in the global economy change.
EMU	5:00am	Industrial Production m/m	-1.6%	-1.5%	1.1%
		For September Provided by: Eurostat Official Release: PDF Ind. Prod. y/y: -2.4%, forecast -1.4%, pr. -0.7% (Aug), -1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr) Industrial production fell 1.6% in September in the Euro-zone, wiping out the gains from August. Production is now down 2.4% on the year, a sharp decrease from the negative 0.7% seen in August. Production was cut in response to weak demand from home and abroad as a result of slowing economic activity. The data means that industrial production has entered a nasty downturn, which may extend in the coming months. Manufacturers are hoping the recent drop in commodity prices and fall in the Euro can help alleviate some of the pain from weaker demand.
UK	5:30am	BOE Quarterly Inflation Report
		Provided by: Bank of England Current Release: Summary Previous Release: PDF Today's Quarterly Inflation Report and comments from Gordon Brown sank the Pound as traders priced in further rate cuts from the Bank of England. Inflation fears have given way to concerns about the ailing economy. Inflation is expected to slow "well below" the 2% target next year, but the economy will be shrinking as well. The Pound fell to a record low against the Euro, and was pressured against the Yen and others. The central bank sees GDP shrinking by an annual rate of 1.8% in the first 3 months of the year. From the Release: "There has been a marked deterioration in the outlook for domestic and global economic activity. Instability in banking and financial markets intensified to levels not seen for almost a century. And, in the United Kingdom, official estimates of GDP growth, business surveys and reports from the Bank's regional Agents all weakened sharply. The economy probably entered recession in the second half of 2008 and output is likely to contract further. Consumer spending faltered in the second quarter under the weight of tighter credit and the squeeze on household budgets. Residential investment continued to fall rapidly and prospects for business investment weakened. Under the assumption that Bank Rate follows a path implied by market yields prevailing prior to the Committee's November decision, the MPC's central projection is for output to continue to fall in the early part of the forecast, followed by a gradual recovery. CPI inflation rose to 5.2% in September. Sterling depreciated further, placing renewed upwards pressure on import prices. Even so, the near-term outlook for inflation improved significantly in the wake of sharp falls in commodity prices. Measures of household inflation expectations fell back and earnings growth remained contained. In the central projection, inflation slows sharply in the near term, as the contributions from energy and food prices decline. Further out, inflation falls well below the 2% target, reflecting a larger margin of spare capacity and the waning impact on import prices from the lower level of sterling. The prospects for economic growth and inflation are judged to be unusually uncertain... At its November meeting, the Committee noted that the outlook for inflation had shifted decisively to the downside. The tightening in the supply of money and credit was likely to cause output to contract further. And CPI inflation was set to fall sharply. The risk of inflation materially undershooting the inflation target in the medium term had increased substantially. In the light of that outlook, the Committee judged that a significant reduction in Bank Rate was necessary in order to meet the 2% target for CPI inflation in the medium term, and accordingly lowered Bank Rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3%."
NZ	4:45pm	Retail Sales m/m	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
		For September Provided by: Statistics New Zealand Official Release: PDF Ex. Autos m/m: -0.5%, forecast 0.4%, pr. 0.8% EX. Inflation m/m: -0.9%, forecast -1.2%, pr. -1.5% Retail sales continues a trend of flat growth, with a 0.1% gain in September, after a 0.4% gain in August. The average monthly gain in total and core sales have been under 0.1% since November 2007. Motor vehicle sales saw a rebound in seasonally adjusted sales in the month, but has been down 16.4% on the year. In the September quarter, the largest decline also came from motor vehicle retailling, falling 4.7%, or a drop of NZ$88million. This adds to previous two quarters loss to a total of a 15.7% drop in the first 3 quarters in the year. From the Release: Seasonally adjusted total retail sales values were flat in the September 2008 month, up just 0.1 percent ($8 million), following an increase of 0.4 percent in the August month. Sales by the core retailing group decreased by 0.5 percent ($19 million) in September 2008. Ten of the 24 retail industries recorded sales increases (14 recorded decreases), while in the core retailing group seven of the 20 industries recorded increases. Monthly movements by industry were led by increases in motor vehicle retailing, up 3.5 percent ($21 million), and supermarket and grocery store retailing, up 1.5 percent ($18 million). The largest decreases were in department stores, down 3.9 percent ($13 million) and clothing and softgoods retailing, down 4.7 percent ($10 million).
NZ	4:45pm	Core Retail Sales	-0.5%	0.4%	0.7% Revised from 0.8%
		See "Retail Sales" for commentary
JPN	6:05pm	Corporate Goods Price Index y/y	4.8%	5.5%	6.8%
		For October Provided by: Bank of Japan Current Release: PDF Table Importance: Medium CGPI m/m: -1.6%, forecast -0.9%, pr. -0.4% (Sep), -0.1% (Aug), 2.0% (Jul), 0.8% (Jun), 1.1% (May), 0.6% (Apr) Japanese wholesale prices are declining sharply according to the Bank of Japan. The slide in commodity prices are pulling down prices, as the monthly rate of CGPI declined 1.6% for the 3rd straight month of easing. With the Japanese economy also in a bad shape, the CPI has also been decelerating.
AUS	7:00pm	Inflation Expectations	3.3%		4.4%
		November Survey Provided by the: Melbourne Institute (sub. req'd) As the global slowdown deepens, Australian consumers are expecting inflation to ease in the coming year. The RBA is expecting the CPI to retreat back into the 2%-3% target range, but not until 2011. Besides the oulook on inflation, the survey also showed consumers to be more pessimistic about the domestic and global economy, as the unemployment expectations index surged another 13.2%, after the 11.6% rise in October.
JPN	11:30pm	Industrial Production m/m	1.1%	1.2%	1.2%
		Final Version for September Provided by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ind. Prod. y/y: 0.2%, prel. 0.4%, pr. -6.9% (Aug), 2.4% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun), 1.1% (May), 1.8% (Apr) Cap. Utilization m/m: 1.6%, pr. -3.5% (Aug), 1.4% (Jul)

Thursday, November 13 |

EUR/USD - Euro Rises on Risk Appetite in NY Session: The Euro-Dollar pair hit an new 3-week low near 1.2390 following the release, but managed to recover prior to the NY open. A late rally in US stocks helped risk appetite, or at least created the conditions for a correction to the declines seen so far this week. The Euro climbed to 1.2725 around 3 PM EST. The Euro also managed to stage a rally against the Yen.
EUR/GBP - Climbs to New Record High: After setting a new record high yesterday, the Euro-Pound pair surged another 280 pips today, reaching the 0.8650 level by 3:30 PM EST. Traders are pricing in more rate cuts from the Bank of England.
GBP/USD - Pound Continues Sinking vs Dollar, Hits 1.4560: The Pound also sank further against the greenback, falling further below the key level of 1.50. The Pound-Dollar pair slid 360 pips today to set a low near 1.4560. That's a 800 pip fall since yesterday when BOE Governor Mervyn King said the bank is ready to continue cutting rates to bolster the economy.
USD/CAD - Loonie Regains Footing After Hitting Resistance at 1.2445: The US Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair has been climbing this week on risk aversion and falling oil prices. In today's session the pair ran up against resistance at 1.2445 and turned back, falling in favor of the Loonie in late NY trading, reaching the 1.2166 area in NY trading.
USD/JPY - Dollar Gains vs Yen on Late Rally in US Stocks: The Dollar-Yen pair bounced off its low to start the global session near the 94.50 level. US stocks started the session choppy, with the Dow Jones index briefly