For July
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release

FPI y/y: 7.6%, pr. 6.8%

The food price index rose 0.6% in July from June, mainly due to higher prices for fruit and vegetables, Statistics New Zealand says. That rate is slower than the 1.3% measured in July. The annual pace rose to 7.6%, with all 5 categories recording upward price pressure. The grocery sub group is up 11% compared to a year ago. With consumer having to pay more for groceries, they will have less discretionary spending. The economy has already slumped with the central bank cutting rates on July 23rd to 8.00% from 8.25%.  

From the Release: "Food prices increased 0.6 percent in the July 2008 month, Statistics New Zealand said today. The increase was mainly due to higher prices for the fruit and vegetables subgroup (up 3.6 percent), in particular lettuce (up 32.4 percent) and cucumber (up 27.9 percent). The most significant downward contributions to fruit and vegetables came from lower prices for tomatoes (down 14.6 percent) and nectarines (down 32.3 percent).Other subgroups to increase were grocery food (up 0.5 percent), restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (up 0.6 percent), and non-alcoholic beverages (up 0.4 percent).

For the year to July 2008, food prices rose 7.6 percent. All five subgroups recorded upward contributions to the annual increase, with the most significant being the grocery food subgroup (up 11.2 percent). Within this subgroup, the main contributions came from higher prices for bread (up 19.6 percent), cheddar cheese (up 59.3 percent), butter (up 89.4 percent), and fresh milk (up 10.2 percent)."

For July (s.a.)
Provided By: Statistics Signapore
Official Release: PDF

CPI m/m s.a.: 0.4%. forecast 0.7%, pr. 0.4%
CPI m/m: 1.2%

The annual rate of consumer inflation fell for the first time in 5 months in July.The 6.5% rate was higher than expectations of a 6.2% increase, but it cooled from June's rate of 7.5%. Inflation has been running red hot in 2008, just as it has been all around the world. Prices reached 26-year highs in April, May and June, averaging 7.1% in the first half of 2008. Compared with June prices rose 0.4% after seasonal adjustments. Unadjusted prices were 1.2% higher.

The central banks main tool to fight inflation is to let its currency strengthen against the US dollar. That lowers the price of imports and holds down prices. Earlier this year, the Singapore dollar climbed to its strongest in nearly 10 years against its US counterpart as the US slashed rates in the first half of the year and oil prices climbed to test $147 a barrel. However, in a 3-week period between mid-July and early-August the US dollar rallied 600 pips from 1.3500 to 1.4150.

The USD/SGD traded near the top of its recent range after a 100 pip rally the last 2 sessions. If the pace of inflation actually is cooling, as the annual rate may suggest, it alleviates some of the pressure to keep the Singapore dollar as strong as it has been.

For July
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release
Official Release: PDF

Exports: 3.42B, pr. 3.59B (Jun), 3.73B (May), 3.80B (Apr)
Imports: 4.40B, pr. 3.81B (Jun), 3.92B (May), 4.13B (Apr)

The monthly trade deficit for July showed a NZ$780 million shortfall, as imports increased to NZ$4.40 million and exports fell to NZ$3.42 million. Exports eased as dairy volumes dropped due to the recent drought. Crude oil helped the export bill but petroleum products added a big chunk to the import bill.

From the Release: "Merchandise exports were valued at $3.4 billion in July 2008, up $781 million (29.6 percent) on July 2007, while merchandise imports were up $754 million (21.9 percent) to $4.2 billion over the same period, Statistics New Zealand said today.

The exports trend has eased in recent months, following a period of strong growth in the second half of 2007. A fall in seasonally adjusted dairy volumes in the first two quarters of this year, due to the recent drought, has partly offset the influence on the trend of the substantial increase in crude oil exports and high world dairy prices over the past year. The imports trend has increased strongly since the middle of 2007, coinciding with a significant rise in fuel prices."

For 3rd Quarter (September)
Provided by: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Business managers have increased expectations about inflation levels in the next few years, according to a Reserve Bank survey. Managers see inflation in the next year up 3.6%, and 3.0% in 2 years time. In the last survey managers expected CPI at 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Inflation in the June quarter (2Q '08) is running at 4%, up from 3.3% in the May quarter, but the Reserve Bank expects it to peak near 5% this quarter before retreating. The Bank, like many other central banks around the world, has to juggle concerns between slowing growth and high inflation. Unlike other banks, it has mainly avoided an external shock from high oil prices, though today's trade balance data wasn't encouraging. 

From the Release: "Consumer price index (CPI) inflation expectations for both the one and two year horizons have increased since the last survey. Average one-year-ahead Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation expectations are now 3.6 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points since the June quarter survey. Two-year-ahead expectations are now 3.0 percent, compared with a previous figure of 2.9 percent. The median two-year rate is unchanged at 3.0 percent.

Expectations of quarterly changes in the CPI for the next two quarters have also increased. Expectations for the September quarter CPI have risen dramatically, from 0.7 percent last quarter to 1.1 percent this quarter. An increase of 0.9 percent is expected for the December 2008 quarter. These quarterly increases are equivalent to annual rates of 4.7 percent for the year to September 2008 and 4.4 percent to December 2008."

For September
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: News Release
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The consumer climate for August was depressed further by the very subdued economic outlook. Even significantly lower crude oil prices did nothing to brighten the consumer mood. As a result, the indicator reflecting propensity to buy has continued to decline. Solely income expectations recovered after the sharp downturn in July. The consumer climate for September is therefore forecasting 1.5 points after a revised value of 1.9 points in August. The indicator last scored a comparable low value in summer 2003.

Subdued economic prospects and the expectation of additional price hikes continued to depress consumer sentiment in August. While income expectations recovered slightly from the marked downturn in the prior month, economic expectations were dampened further. The propensity to buy, which in a long-term comparison has been far below average for many months, recorded a further slight reduction."

For July
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "In the wake of June’s temporary high, the UBS consumption indicator has fallen significantly. The dip by almost 0.4 points to 1.85 is the largest correction seen during a single month for just under a year. At its current level, the indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending remains healthy, but the outlook is looking increasingly gloomy.

Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite for June
Provided by: Standard & Poor's
Official Release: PDF

10-City Index y/y: -17.0%, pr. -16.9% (May), -16.3% (Apr), -15.3% (Mar)
20-City Index q/q (2Q): -15.4%, pr. -14.1%

Home prices in the US's largest cities continued to fall in June. The 20-city composite was down 15.9% compared to a year ago. This is a bigger decrease than in May, but did come in lower than forecasts. The 10-city index nothced down to show a 17.0% decrease from last year. Prices have continued to drop as conditions are now ripe for any potential buyers. The rate of declines may be moderating and perhaps prices may soon find a bottom.

From the Release: "“While there is no national turnaround in residential real estate prices, it is possible that we are seeing some regions struggling to come back, which has resulted in some moderation in price declines at the national level” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Depending on where you focus on the details of the report, you can see some different stories on where home prices are headed. Record year-over-year declines were reported in both the 10-City and 20-City Composites in June; however, they are very close to the values reported for May. The rate of home price decline may be slowing. For the month, the 10-City Composite was down 0.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 0.5%. While still falling, these are far less than the 2-2.5% monthly drops seen earlier in 2008. In June, nine of the 20 cities were up month-to-month compared with seven in May. Nevertheless, not one market is showing a positive return over the past 12 months and seven of the metro areas are reporting declines in excess of 20.0%.”

For August
Latest Release Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Manufacturing activity in the area watched over by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond remained weak in August. The composite index was unchanged at -16. Shipments were improved to -13 compared to -26 the prior month, and prices paid were down as well (3.65 compared to 4.41).

From the Release: "Manufacturing activity retreated for fourth straight month in August:

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region continued to drift lower in August, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The pace of decline in factory shipments moderated, while declines in new orders, employment and capital utilization were more pronounced. Backlogs contracted on par with July, and delivery times turned positive. Moreover, manufacturers reported slightly quicker growth in inventories.

Looking forward, manufacturers' optimism about future business prospects edged higher in August. Contacts at firms anticipated that growth in shipments, new orders and backlogs would grow a bit more rapidly during the next six months.

With respect to prices, both raw materials and finished goods prices grew at a more measured pace in August. In addition, respondents indicated that they expected prices to grow more slowly over the next six months."

For August
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 63.2, pr. 65.8 R (Jul), 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May)
Expectations Index: 52.8, pr. 42.7 R (Jul), 41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May)

Consumer confidence measured by the Conference Board has bottomed off and has improved slightly for 2 straight months. The data is indicative of a neutral sentiment among consumers, a notch better than it had been all year. Lynn Frano Director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center noted, "Declines in the Present Situation Index, both in terms of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating. The Expectations Index, which posted a significant gain this month, suggests better times may be ahead. However, overall readings are still quite low by historical standards and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us."

August's improvement is an important bridge to any recovery in consumer confidence. The drop off of oil prices calmed speculations that it could reach $200/bbl. House prices look to have bottomed. The rhetoric these days seem to be more on when a recovery will happen instead of how bad will the slowdown will be. Although the market is still skittish about the health of some key financial players such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac.

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction work done fell in the second quarter to a total value of AU$30.137B from an upwardly revised AU$30.967B, a decline of 2.6%. This headline change is exagerrated because 1st quarter figures were revised up twice as much as first estimated. Still, the numbers were below forecasts of a 1.5% gain. This indicator has been cyclical from quarter to quarter since Q3 2007, going up one quarter only to be followed with a decline. The trend estimate rose 0.7% in the June quarter.Residential building work rose 0.1%, while non-residential fell 0.6%, and the trend estimate for building work done fell 0.2%. the only other component, engingeering work, rose 1.7%, while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 6.0%.

Australia's housing market has seen some deceleration of growth, but basically avoided the arms of the US subprime meltdown. House prices have been maintained, although home loans are harder to come by because of credit conditions and high borrowing cost. There is somewhat of a contraction in the housing market, but it is not alarming.

For July
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release 

IPI y/y: 9.3%, forecast 9.2%, pr. 8.9%, 7.9% (May), 5.7% (Apr)

Inflation remains to be high in Germany. Import prices rose to an annual rate of 9.3%, the highest in 8 years (November '00). Energy prices continue to dominate the index but July was the month oil prices rose to $147, but then eased. The ECB is caught between seeing the Euro-zone economy stall, but inflation remains a problem. The ECB wont get complacent on inflation at this late stage, but central banks are expecting a moderation in inflation. On the month import prices rose a smaller 0.6%, compared to a 1.5% in June. Let's see if prices peak here. 

From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in July 2008, the index of import prices increased by 9.3% from the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the highest year-on-year rate of price increase since November 2000 (+10.6%). In June and in May 2008 the annual rates of change were +8.9% and +7.9%, respectively. The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, was 3.5% above the level of July 2007.

From June to July 2008 the index of import prices rose by 0.6%.
 
The index of export prices increased 3.3% in July 2008 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the highest year-on-year rate of price increase since November 2000 (+3.6%). In June and in May 2008 the annual rates of change were +2.7% and +2.3%, respectively. From June 2008 to July 2008 the index rose by 0.5%."

The Euro rose against the Dollar overnight, capping a 190 pip rally that started at yeasterday's low near 1.4575. At the NY open the pair set an intra-day high at 1.4775.  

CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.2%, pr. 3.3% (Jul), 3.3% (Jun), 3.0% (May)
CPI EU Harm. m/m: -0.4%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.7% (Jul), 0.6% (Jun), 0.4% (May)
CPI EU Harm. y/y: 3.3%, forecast 3.4%, pr. 3.5% (Jul), 3.4% (Jun), 3.4% (May)

German inflation cooled in August, preliminary data showed today. Some of the pressures stemming from seasonal markups for leisure services and heating oil prices declined. An easing of inflation would be a very positive sign for the ECB which is seeing the Euro-zone economy hitting a rough patch, and will be hard pressed to raise rates anytime soon. Still, some members of the Governing Council, like Axel Weber, say that after the economy recovers it may be necessary to tighten rates to control second-round inflation risks.

From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the consumer price index for Germany is expected to rise 3.1% in August 2008 on August 2007 (July 2008: +3.3%), according to results available from six Länder.
Compared with the previous month, the rate of change will be –0.3%.

The harmonised consumer price index for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 3.3% from August 2007 to August 2008 (July 2008: +3.5%). Compared with the previous month, the index will be down 0.4%."

For 2nd Quarter (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Capital Expenditure y/y: 8.1%, pr. 4.6% (1Q), 15.3% (4Q '07)

Capital expenditure rose 5.7% in the June quarter, after a positively revised first quarter, and beat forecasts of a 2.0% gain. Australia so far seems to have avoided any major hiccups in the financial system that the US had been having. This slightly brightens the outlook for the economy, and somewhat lessens the pressure for the RBA to cut rates. On the other hand, weak numbers from the rest of the economy such as this week's poor construction numbers and worsened leading index suggest a rate cut is warranted.

For August
Provided by: Nationwide House Prices
Official Release: PDF

House Prices y/y: -10.5%, forecast -9.6%, pr. -8.1% (Jul), -6.3% (Jun)
Avg. Price: £164,654 pr. £169,316 (Jul), £172,415 (Jun), £173,583 (May)

Housing prices in the UK took another tumble, dropping 1.9% in the month of August, and has now hit a double-digit annual decline of 10.5%. Conditions are very subdued as interest in purchasing homes is far off the levels seen last year around this time. 

The Pound set an intra-day low vs the Euro and Yen around the time of the release, and overnight traded pretty flat against the Dollar.  

From the Release: “The price of a typical house fell by 1.9% in August, bringing the annual fall into double digits for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1990. The price of a typical house fell by 10.5% over the last twelve months to £164,654. While the pace of monthly falls picked up during the month, the less volatile three month on three month measure, eased very slightly in August to 4.5% from 4.6% in July. 

 “Recent activity levels in the housing market have been very subdued. House builders in particular have been reporting significant reductions in site visits and reservations of new properties since this time last year, in spite of a big increase in the use of sales incentives. Reservations of new property began to feel the squeeze before any slowdown was recorded in the official number of house purchase approvals, but the two series have moved closely over recent months. House builders report that a lack of confidence in the market is the biggest reason behind the drop off in demand, although changes in lending criteria are also reported as an issue."

For August (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Labor Agency

Unempl. Rate (July): 7.6%, forecast 7.8%, pr. 7.8% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun)
Jobless Claims: 3.196M, pr. 3.21M

After several releases showering doom and gloom on the German economy, today's unemployment figures had to boost spirits in the ECB. It showed unemployment fell by 40K in August, four times the consensus forecast. The unemployment rate, which has a one-month lag, slid to 7.6% for July. That's the lowest level in 16 years (May 1992). Even though Germany's economy was shown to have decreased 0.5% in the 2nd quarter and business confidence falling to a 36-month low, employment seems to be holding up well. Employment tends to react to cyclical swings slower than other more timely data, and though the report is positive, should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt.