Monthly Change for August
Provided by: Rightmove
Official Release: PDF

Rightmove HPI y/y: -4.8%, pr. -2.0% (Jul), 0.1% (June), 2.2% (May)
Avg. Price: £229,816 pr. £235,219 (Jul), £239,564 (Jun), £242,500 (May)

Housing prices in the UK continue to sink with the monthly change for August showing a 2.3% decline compared to June. The pace of declines is increasing as price fell 1.8% in June and 1.2% in May. For the year, housing prices are now down 4.8%, which is the biggest drop since the survey began in 2002. The story remains the same. Banks continue to choke off mortgage lending shrinking the pool of potential home buyers. The housing standstill has rippled out to the rest of the economy, and now retail sales and GDP are suffering as other sectors in the economy falter.  

From the Release: "The re-adjustment in national average asking prices is gathering pace. New sellers putting their properties onto the market in July did so at prices 2.3% (£5,403) lower than last month as they continue to fight Brickor Mortis, the paralysing condition that is hitting property transactions nationwide. This is a further acceleration from the drops of 1.8% and 1.2% in the preceding months and is the largest fall Rightmove has ever measured in August. The biggest regional reversal was in London, where summer sellers have reduced asking prices by 5.3% compared to the increase of 0.3% of the previous month."

For June
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (FSO)

Retail sales in Switzerland were up 0.7% year-on-year (adjusted for prices swings) in June, slower than the pace of 7.4% set in May. Forecasts had called for a 3.2% increase. The slower sales came despite the Euro 2008 soccer championships. Weaker spending bolsters the view that just like the Euro-zone, the Swiss economy is heading for weaker growth and may prompt the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates. 

The Swiss economy has been doing well as employment remains firm and wages are rising, but a recent survey on consumer sentiment pointed to a 4-and-a-half year low. Exports and the banking sector are already feeling the pressure of the recent global credit crunch and slowdown, but consumer spending has propped up growth. If consumer spending falters it'll be a bad sign for the economy. 

For June
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: " Non-residents had net purchases of Canadian securities for a seventh consecutive month in June, as heavy acquisitions of Canadian bonds showed no sign of abating. June's $7.2 billion foreign acquisition of Canadian securities completed a record second quarter investment of $27.6 billion.

Meanwhile, Canadians reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $9.5 billion, in the face of lacklustre global equity markets and a deteriorating US credit market. Nearly two-thirds of the divestment was in foreign shares with the rest largely in US government bonds."

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

PPI Output y/y 8.5%, largest since September 1987 quarter.

Output prices surged by the largest percentage since June quarter of 1985. Electricity generation was the largest contributor, jumping 30.9%, the largest increase for this component since its records began in June 1994.The wholesale trade index up 6.0 as the second largest contributor, continues to rise due to higher prices for fuel. The 6.0% is the largest annual increase for this component since 1994 when the series began.The surge in inflation may be a deterrent on RBNZ's rate cut campaign, after cutting the Official Cash Rate from 8.25% to 8.00% in July.

From the Releae: "Producers’ prices rose in the June 2008 quarter, with output prices up 3.5 percent and input prices up 5.6 percent, Statistics New Zealand said today. The rise in the outputs index is the largest quarterly rise since the June 1985 quarter, while the rise in the inputs index is the largest since the March 1980 quarter. Both indexes were mainly driven by higher prices for electricity generation and supply.

The electricity generation and supply outputs index rose 30.9 percent in the latest quarter, the largest rise since the series began. Higher output prices for electricity generation were recorded, with lower lake levels pushing up spot prices. In the year to the June 2008 quarter, the electricity generation and supply index rose 41.7 percent, which is also the largest annual rise since the series began."

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Minutes

From the Release: "The recommendation to the Board was to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent.

In evaluating the recommendation, members noted that there had clearly been a significant change in trend in household demand over the preceding few months. Tight financial conditions, high petrol prices and declining asset values were all contributing factors, though petrol prices had recently declined somewhat and tax cuts had taken effect. A range of business surveys suggested that conditions across most sectors had also moderated, though the slowing seemed milder than in the case of household activity...

Members continued to see considerable uncertainty about the outlook for demand and inflation, as the economy remained subject to powerful forces pulling in opposite directions. Tighter financial conditions were causing the economy to slow but, on the other hand, the rise in the terms of trade would continue to add substantially to national income and capacity to spend...

First, a lengthy period of inflation above the target was occurring, with attendant risk that this would begin to affect wage setting, though there was no evidence of this in aggregate wages data to date. If that occurred, the cost of reducing inflation later would be greater. Policy had to take account of this risk, particularly given both the recent high CPI reading and those in prospect in the near term. This argued for maintaining the current stance of policy.

Second, members were conscious that financial conditions were clearly quite tight, and effectively getting tighter as a result of ongoing pressure on lenders’ cost of funds in the market. Given there had been a significant change in borrowing behaviour, confidence was weaker, asset prices had declined and slower overall growth was in prospect, tighter financial conditions were not warranted. Indeed, less restrictive conditions could soon be called for, otherwise the risk of a deeper and more persistent slowing in the economy would increase. On these considerations, a case could be made for an early reduction in the cash rate.

Weighing up all these considerations, members judged that the current stance of policy was appropriate for the time being. Nonetheless, given the slower trend in demand, scope to move towards a less restrictive setting of monetary policy was judged to be increasing."

For July
Provided by: Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

PPI y/y: 8.9%, forecast 7.5%, pr. 6.7% (Jun), 6.0% (May), 5.2% (Apr)

German producer prices accelerated at a fast pace in July, far above expectations. Prices on the month were up 2.0%, compared to July's 0.9%. And on the year, prices rose 8.9% setting a new 27-year high. The data will add pressure for the ECB to hold rates at 4.25%, a seven-year high, even as the economy hits a period of serious slowdown in the 3rd quarter. With prices increasing at the wholesale level, companies are passing the costs on to consumers, which are feeling the sharpest consumer inflation in 12 years. 

From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of producer prices for industrial products (domestic sales) for Germany was up 8.9% in July 2008 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the highest year-on-year rate of price increase since October 1981 (+9.1%). In June 2008, the annual rate of change was +6.7%. Compared with the preceding month, the index rose by 2.0% in July 2008 (+0.9% in June 2008)."

For August
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

Current Situation: -9.2, forecast 10, pr. 17.0 (Jul), 37.6 (Jun)

German investor confidence improved more than expected for the August period, rising to -55.5 from -63.9 in July. The increase in sentiment was led by falling oil prices and a slide in the Euro which will make European goods less expensive abroad, helping exports. Though the data is a sliver of hope contrasted to the bleak news  coming out of the Euro-zone recently, it is still quite negative, or at recessionary levels. The ECB has acknowledged that the economy is going through a corrective phase which means the 2nd and 3rd quarters will see a "trough" in growth. Weak growth may keep the ECB from hiking rates, even in the face of high inflation like today's German PPI data. 

From the Release: "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany improved in August 2008 by 8.4 points and now stands at minus 55.5 points after minus 63.9 points in the previous month. This is still well below its historical average of 28.3 points.

The improvement of the economic sentiment signals that there is only limited fear about an economic downturn among the financial market experts. The recent decline of the oil price and the depreciation of the euro versus the US-dollar should have mitigated the concerns about the economic situation in Germany.

"The financial market experts have for good reason not been impressed by the negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the second quarter of 2008. Overall, they reckon with a weaker, but all in all robust economic development and rightly do not fear a recession."

For June
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

June was a strong month for the automotive products sector, which saw a 10.6% gain to C$7.8B, the largest increase for the sector since August 2005. This came following 6 months, in which 5 saw declines. Motor vehicle sales rose 11.9% to lead the way in the sector.Wholesale inventories are also piling up, a sign of anticipation of growing demand.

From the Release: " Current dollar wholesale sales rose 2.0% to $45.2 billion in June, the fifth increase in six months. After removing the effect of price changes, sales in constant dollars increased 1.0% during the month. June's increase of 2.0% was largely a result of higher demand for automotive products. Sales excluding the automotive sector rose 0.4%.

Overall, six of the seven wholesale sectors reported higher sales in June. The only decline came in the "other products" sector, which had posted a substantial increase in May.

The trend for current dollar wholesale sales has been gradually rising over the past four months. This followed a period of little or no growth that began in mid-2007, which was largely the result of a slowdown in exports of motor vehicles and lumber."

Annual Pace For July
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Official Release: PDF  

Starts m/m: -11.0%, pr. 9.1%, -2.7% (May), 8.2% (Apr), -11.9% (Mar)

Housing starts quickly fell after seeing some gains in June. The annual pace of new housing construction fell to 965,000, the lowest level since March of 1991. Single family homes saw a 2.9% decline from the month to an annual rate of 641,000, the lowest since January of 1991.The housing market is not out of the dark yet. Single housing starts continue its relentless contraction and has dropped from an annual pace of 1,055K units in July 2007, to the current 641K. a 39.2% decline.

From the Release: "Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 965,000. This is 11.0 percent (±9.0%) below the revised June estimate of 1,084,000 and is 29.6 percent (±5.1%) below the revised July 2007 rate of 1,371,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 641,000; this is 2.9 percent (±10.9%)* below the June figure of 660,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 309,000."

For June
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "“The growth rate in the Coincident Index has now been below trend February 2008. The margin continues to widen as the Index signals weak current growth pointing to a very soft quarter for the economy in June. The level of the Coincident Index rose by 0.3 points (0.1%). Weak real retail trade (down by 1.2%) was countered by a 0.2% increase in employment.

The Reserve bank Board next meets on September 2. Markets are confidently predicting a rate cut and we concur. Communication from the Bank, beginning with Governor's Statement; the Statement on Monetary Policy and the August Board Minutes has made an increasingly strong case for a rate cut. Markets and commentators are predicting a 0.25% first move. Our view is that the first move in an easing cycle should be larger than the average once the case has been made to move. With rates well into the contractionary zone and global liquidity conditions deteriorating there is a strong case for a larger first cut of 0.5%. That seems a more effective strategy than current market expectations of two consecutive 0.25% moves.

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 2.0% in June, well below its long term trend of 3.9%. The annualised growth rate of the Coincident Index was 2.4%, also below its long term trend of 3.7%. Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans commented, "This is the slowest growth rate of the Index since July 2001 and the sharpest fall in the growth rate since 2000. This theme has been a consistent aspect of the Leading Index since growth in the Index fell below trend in February this year. That was the first time growth had been significantly below trend since October 2005."

For July
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): -12.6B, forecast -10.0B, pr. 15.3B (June), 11.0B (May)

For June

M4 y/y: 11.2%, forecast 10.7%, pr. 11.5%, 10.0%

Monthly Rate for June
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

Retail sales yet again improved on the back of soaring gas prices, for the eighth month of gains in the last nine months. Overall retail sales grew 0.5%, limited by the lackluster auto sector, which edged down 0.1% in sales. Excluding autos, retail grew 1.4%. Keep in mind the timeliness of this release to current market sentiments. Oil has declined significantly, and gas prices should soon follow, bringing out the true colors of the economy where demand has contracted.

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose by 0.5% in June to $36.0 billion. This advance can largely be explained by the 4.2% increase in sales at gasoline stations, mainly as a result of higher gas prices in June. Once price variations for all goods and services sold by retailers are taken into account, retail sales in constant dollars decreased by 0.4%.

In June, retail sales in current dollars were up in six of the eight sectors. The strongest increases were in the clothing and accessories stores sector and in the food and beverage stores sector. Sales at furniture, home furnishings and electronics stores rose for the third consecutive month, continuing their recovery after slowing in the last six months of 2007.

The widespread increase in retail sales was dampened by the fifth consecutive decline in sales by new car dealers, which fell 3.1%... Excluding sales by new car dealers and by used and recreational motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales rose by 1.4% in June, the third increase of 1.0% or more since the beginning of the year."

For July
Provided by: StatCan
Official Release: News Release

The housing and manufacturing indexes pulled down gains in the other 7 components that rose. This non-growth disappointed market forecasts of a 0.1% gain.

From the Release: "The composite leading index was unchanged for a second straight month in July, after small gains in April and May. Overall, 2 of the 10 components fell in July, versus 6 in June. However, the declines in housing and the average workweek in manufacturing were large enough to offset small increases in the 7 components that rose.

The housing index decreased by 2.9%, its largest decline since June 2002. Most of the drop originated in fewer housing starts. Consumer spending on durable goods continued to expand, although the rate of growth for auto sales slowed sharply after the hike in gasoline prices early this summer."

For July (s.a.)
Provided by: Ministry of Finance
Previous Release: PDF

Trade Balance (n.s.a.): 0.091T, forecast 0.235T, pr. ¥0.138T, ¥0.365T

Japan's trade balance narrowed for a 5th straight month in July as Japan pays more for oil on their import bill while growth to the US, Europe and other nations struggles. The unadjusted balance came in at 91.1 billion yen, a 86.6% decline from a year ago.On a seasonally adjusted basis, the balance was 170 billion yen. China picked up the slack, and for the first time exports to China outpaced those to the US. Exports can be expected to continue deteriorating as global demand weakens.

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: PDF 

Provided by: Bank of Japan
Official Release: Press Release (English)

From the Release: "Japan's economic growth has been sluggish against the backdrop of high energy and materials prices and weaker growth in exports.

The pace of increase in exports has slowed. Business fixed investment has been leveling off, as corporate profits have been decreasing mainly due to the deterioration in the terms of trade. Private consumption has been relatively weak, mainly due to sluggish growth in household income and the increase in prices of petroleum products and food. The recovery in housing investment has been stalled. Public investment, meanwhile, has been sluggish. With these developments in demand both at home and abroad, production has been relatively weak.

While growth will likely remain sluggish for the time being, Japan's economy is expected to gradually return onto a moderate growth path as international commodity prices level out and overseas economies move out of their deceleration phase."

"Producer and Import Prices" (July)
Provided by: Federal Statistical Office
Official Release: Data (in German)

PPI y/y: 4.9%, pr. 4.5, 3.9% (May)
Producer Prices m/m: pr. 0.5%, y/y: pr. 4.4%
Import Prices m/m: pr. 0.8%, y/y: pr.4.7%

Swiss input prices rose to an annual pace of 4.9% in July, the highest its been in 19 years. Higher prices for oil and metals led the increase and will the data will add pressure on the Swiss National Bank to keep rates at their current level of 2.75%, even as domestic demand weakens. Producer prices may see a peak here as oil prices came down in August.