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Sunday, July 27
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZ	6:45pm	Trade Balance	-0.22B	-0.50B	-0.20B
		For June Provided by: Statistics New Zealand Official Release: Media Release Official Release: PDF Exports: 3.59B, forecast 3.35B, pr. 3.73B (May), 3.80B (Apr), 3.44B (Mar) Imports: 3.81B, forecast 3.70B, pr. 3.92B (May), 4.13B (Apr), 3.49B (Mar) The trade balance figure for New Zealand showed a slight change in June from May. Exports were down compared to May, but imports decreased as well, keeping the trade balance similar to May's levels. Expectations were for a bigger deficit. From the Release: "In the month of June 2008, merchandise imports were valued at $3.8 billion, the highest value for a June month, up 16.9 percent from June 2007. This increase was led by crude oil with the price of crude up substantially since June 2007. Merchandise exports were valued at $3.6 billion in June 2008, up 30.9 percent from June 2007. This is the largest percentage increase from the same month of the previous year since January 2001. The increase in exports was dominated by crude oil and milk powder, butter and cheese."
UK	7:00pm	House Prices m/m (Hometrack)	-1.2%		-1.0%
		For July Provided by: Hometrack House Prices y/y: -4.4% Avg. Price: pr. £172,415 Housing prices in the UK were down 4.4% in England and Wales according to Hometrack, and were down 1.2% in July compared to June. Its the 10th straight month of decline. The Bank of England attempted to lower rates to help ease a slowdown in housing and general economic growth between December and April, but with inflation running high, it may not have room to cut rates again. The bottom in the UK housing sector therefore may not come soon, as banks continue to provide little in the way of mortgage lending and the potential pool of home purchasers is smaller as the economy falters.
AUS	9:30pm	NAB Quarterly Business Outlook	-8		-4
		For September Quarter Provided by: National Australian Bank Impact: Low to Medium The NAB business confidence expectations index fell to -8 for the September quarter (3Q) said NAB head of economics Jeff Oughton. That's the lowest reading since the June quarter of 1991, and the index has slid 18 points in the past year. Falling consumer confidence, rising borrowing costs, and volatility in stocks were all weighing down on business expectations. About 30% of firms said conditions will deteriorate, as they battle reduced activity and higher prices for oil and other key materials for production. The data points to the Reserve Bank of Australia remaining on the sidelines, despite higher short term inflation, as they do not see the need to raise rates again with the economy hitting a period of slowdown. The report did show that the mining sector remained strong.

Monday, July 28 \| EUR/USD - Euro Gains Modestly vs Dollar on Concerns over US Financial Institutions: The Euro-Dollar pair continued its upward bounce seen the last 2 sessions, brushing off the weaker consumer confidence figure. The pair bounced off key support at 1.5650 last week. Today's action was pretty quiet with the pair climbing around 70 pips from its session open to its intraday high. The Dollar is being pressured by concerns over US financial companies' losses and the reduced chance that the Fed will move to raise rates in September. GBP/USD - Pound Shruggs Off Housing Data to Gain on Rate Outlook: The Pound-Dollar pair hit a session-low of 1.9850 overnight, following the weak housing report. However as overnight trading gave way to the NY session, the pair climbed 120 pips to test the 1.9970 area. USD/JPY - Weak US Stocks Halt Advance of Dollar vs Yen, Resistance at 108.00 Holds: US stocks opened weaker on Monday. The Dow Jones index was down 150 points in early afternoon trading as oil prices jumped. Risk aversion stopped the Dollar-Yen pair at the 108 level. Resistance held and the pair fell to 107.40 by 1 PM EST. USD/CAD - Loonie Continues its Fall Vs Greenback, Reaches 1.0225: One pair where there was greenback strength was the US Dollar-Canadian Dollar. For the 5^th session in a row the pair climbed higher, testing 1.0225, the high set in early July. Since testing parity last Tuesday the pair has rallied 225 pips, mainly on falling oil prices, one of Canada's main exports. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: Dollar Lower on Financial Woes Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GER	2:00am	GfK Consumer Confidence	2.1	3.5	3.6 Revised from 3.9
		For August Provided by: GfK Group Official Release: News Release Official Release: PDF German consumers continued their trend of becoming more and more pessimistic. The GfK measure of consumer confidence fell to its lowest since June 2003. Their main gripe is inflation, and with the ECB raising rates, consumer loans are now also more expensive. Business confidence is down as well, as we saw with last week's IFO data. Growth in the largest economy in the Euro-zone is set to fall in teh 2nd quarter and beyond, especially as exports, which have propped up economic activity decline as a resuly of a global slowdown and reduced demand and a strong Euro. Consumer confidence is most closely linked to consumer spending, so a reduction there won't help matters at all. From the Release: "New record highs in energy prices, stronger fears of recession and the renewed persistence of the crisis in the financial markets have rocked consumer confidence. While the index reflecting the propensity to buy was only slightly down, the indicator of economic and income expectations dropped significantly. The consumer climate for August is consequently forecasting a value of 2.1 points for August after a revised 3.6 points in July. The indicator has not been as low since June 2003."
USA	12:00pm	Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks
NZ	6:45pm	Building Approvals	-20.1%		-40.8% Revised from -42.3%
		For June Provided by: Statistics New Zealand Official Release: PDF
JPN	7:30pm	Household Spending y/y	-1.8%	-2.8%	-3.2%
		For June Provided by: Statistics Bureau Latest Release: Summary Overall household spending was down 1.8% in June compared to a year ago, which was better than forecast. It's the 4th month in a row that the figure was negative. Incomes were down 2.1%, with extraordinary income, a measure usually of bonuses, fell 7.1% in June from a year earlier. From the Release: "(1) Expenditures for Two-or-more-person Households The average amount of monthly consumption expenditures per household for June 2008 was 281,951 yen, up 0.5% in nominal terms but down 1.8% in real terms from the previous year. (2) Income and Expenditures for Workers' Households The average amount of monthly income per household stood at 737,166 yen, up 0.2% in nominal terms but down 2.1% in real terms from the previous year. The amount of consumption expenditures was 307,975 yen, up 2.6% in nominal terms and up 0.3% in real terms from the previous year."
JPN	7:30pm	Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4.0%	4.0%
		For June (s.a.) Latest Release Provided by: Statistics Bureau The Japanese unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, surprising forecasts and reaching the highest level in 2 years. A weaker labor market has caused households to limit their spending a trend that has been apparent the last several months. Weaker consumer spending will hurt domestic demand just as foreign demand for Japanese exports hits a snag as a result of a global slowdown. Consumer confidence has been beaten down by high energy prices as well, which has been the main driver in higher inflation. The jobless rate increased as more woman entered the labor market or sought higher paying jobs to supplement household incomes which have been squeezed by higher prices.
JPN	7:50pm	Retail Sales y/y	0.3%	-0.2%	0.3% Revised from 0.2%
		For June Provided by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Official Release: Data Large Retailer's Sales y/y: -3.9%, forecast -1.6%, pr. -2.0%, -2.2% (Apr) Retail Sales m/m: 0.0%, forecast -0.5%, pr. -0.1%, -0.1% (Apr) Retail sales in Japan were up 0.3% in June compared to a year ago, defying expectations of a decrease. Its the 11th month in a row of positive increases, and shows that although household spending is down overall, retail sales have not yet turned negative. Large retailers' posted a 3.9% drop in sales compared toa year ago, worse than expectations of a -1.6% change
JPN	7:50pm	Large Retailers	-3.9%	-3.4%	-2.0% Revised from -2.1%
AUS	8:00pm	Leading Index	-0.1%		0.3%
		For May Provided by: The Conference Board Official Release: Press Release The Conference Board leading index dropped to -0.1% for May, the 4th decrease in the index in the last 5 months. The Australian economy is being choked by high interest rates, high inflation, and weakening housing and labor markets. Exports are the one bright spot. The Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated a moderation in growth, and believes that will be able to lower inflation. They are therefore going to be on the sidelines going forward even as inflation might increase in the short term.

Tuesday, July 29 \| EUR/USD - Dollar Strength Enters Markets as US Stocks Rally, Oil Falls, and US Data Surprises: The Euro-Dollar took a sharp turn in favor of the greenback this session as US stocks recovered from yesterday's sell off and oil prices continued their slide, falling close to $4 to reach $121. The Dollar managed to pare all of its losses the last two sessions and broke below last week's support at 1.5650. Around 10 AM the Dollar was further boosted by a better than expected consumer confidence report. Today's moves put the Dollar at a one-month high against the Euro. USD/JPY - Dollar Gains vs Yen as Risk Appetite Returns Following Monday Jitters: With stocks climbing in the US the Dollar-Yen pair rallied about 100 pips from its overnight low, setting a high near 108.30, the highest the pair's been since June 26^th. The Dow Jones index was up 160 points, and Nasdaq was about 50 points higher around noon time in NY. GBP/USD - Dollar Gains 150 Pips vs Pound: The Pound-Dollar pair saw a similar sharp move as the Euro-Dollar. It fell around 150 pips from its levels prior to the NY open. The pair broke below 1.9850 and found new support at the 1.98 level. GBP/CHF - Pound Gains vs Swiss Franc on Better Stocks Despite Weak Data: Despite the weaker UK data, Stocks in London fared better than those in the rest of Europe which helped propel the Pound higher vs. the Swiss Franc and Euro. The Pound-Fran pair, after consolidating overnight, jumped 100 pips as investor sentiments picked up and appetite for risk increased in NY trading. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: Greenback Testing Resistance Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
SWZ	4:00am	UBS Consumption Indicator	2.246		1.948 Revised from 1.910
		For June Provided by: UBS Current Release: Media Release The UBS Consumption Indicator rebounded in June. The sharp rise was due in particular to improvements in business activity in the retail sector, nearing record levels seen at the start of the year. The caveat is that this was buoyed by the spending during the UEFA European Championships, and that a bigger rise in the indicator was not seen is a sign of suppressed consumer sentiment. According to the current level of the indicator, spending remains healthy but is kept pressured by inflation driven pessimism of consumers. The UBS economists forecast a 1.8% growth in Swiss private consumption this year, in anticipation that inflation will cool off a bit..From the release: After a steady slide since February, the UBS Consumption Indicator recovered significantly in June. The gain of 0.3 points to 2.25 marks the largest monthly increase since April 2007. At its current level, the Indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending remains healthy. The monthly UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 2.25 in June, up from 1.95 in May and 2.15in April. This latest rise sees the UBS Consumption Indicator not only outstripping the average for the past twelve months, but puts it above its long-term average of 1.5 for two years running.
UK	4:30am	Mortgage Approvals (BOE)	36K	37K	41K Revised from 42K
		For June Provided by: Bank of England Current Release: (PDF) Net Mortgage Lending:3.1B, forecast 3.4B, pr. 4.1B r (May), 6.4B (Apr) From the Release: "The numbers of loans approved for house purchase (36,000), remortgaging (84,000) and other purposes (45,000) were all lower than in May." The number of mortgage approval was lowest since these records began in 1993, while the total of mortgage lending is in a 8-year low. The housing market is still adjusting to the tighter credit conditions as well as an overall slowdown in the economy. We have seen house prices fall and inventories of unsold homes increase even without many new sellers coming in.
UK	4:30am	Net Consumer Lending	4.0B	5.0B	5.1B Revised from 5.4B
		For May Provided by: Bank of England Current Release: PDF Net Consumer Credit: £0.9B, forecast £1.0B, pr. £1.4B (May), £0.9B (Apr) Net Mortgage Lending: £3.1B, forecast £3.7B, pr. £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr) The Consumer lending figures from the Bank of England reflect the tighter credit conditions in the UK. Overall lending dipped from April's already revised down £5.1B, was much lower than expected, and is below the previous 6-month average £7.5B.
UK	6:00am	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	-36	-15	-9
		For July Provided by: Confederation of British Industry Previous Release: News Release The retail sector is struggled through a rough patch this summer. Sales volume fell sharply in July, and the outlook remains grim according to the CBI. 61% respondents reported weaker sales than a year ago, with only 25% reporting higher sales, resulting in the -36% net, the weakest since the survety began in 1983, and significantly below expectations of a softer decline. Sales have not been working this summer as they have somewhat helped earlier in the beginning of the year. This drag was felt throughout the supply chain as those reporting lower new orders with suppliers also netted a balance of 37%. Partially to blame for the poor figures is the depressed housing market which is keeping a low ceiling on home prices of home furnishings and other related products. Of course the ongoing inflation and fears of a recession are working to keep the consumer's disposable spending light.
GER	8:40am	Consumer Price Index m/m	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%
		Preliminary Release for July Provided by: Federal Statistics Office Official Release: Press Release CPI y/y: 3.3%, forecast 3.2%, pr. 3.3%, 3.0% CPI EU Harmonized m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, pr. 0.4%, 0.7% CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 3.4%, forecast 3.4%, pr. 3.4%, 3.1% German consumer prices were up 0.6% for July, preliminary data showed, double the monthly rate seen in June. The annual rate remained at 3.3%, when expectations had it cooling to 3.2%. Again, the price of energy was a main contributor, along with rising holiday prices. As mentioned below, stripping out heating oil and fuel prices, CPI was up 0.5% on the month and 2.2% on the year. As the German economy is the largest in the euro-zone the number here bode poorly for any kind of reduction in the overall euro-zone rate this month. The Euro was in the midst of a strong Dollar rally when the data came out, so its direct impact on the forex market was muted. Still higher inflation will keep the ECB vigilant in the future with some members of the ECB Council calling for another rate increase to stem rising prices. From the Release: "As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the consumer price index for Germany is expected to rise 3.3% in July 2008 on July 2007 (June 2008: also +3.3%), according to results available from six Länder. This will be the largest price increase since December 1993. Compared with the previous month, the rate of change will be +0.6%. As in the previous months, the year-on-year rate of price increase has been essentially influenced by large price rises for liquid fuel and motor fuels. If liquid fuel and motor fuels are excluded, the annual rate of price increase amounts to around +2.2% (about +0.5% against the preceding month). For seasonal reasons, the monthly rate is decisively influenced by package holidays with +13.8% and holiday homes with +27.1%. For these two items, the rates of change against the preceding year are +1.4% and +0.5%, respectively. Food prices will increase some 0.3% compared with one month earlier and thus be about 8.0% higher than in the previous year. The harmonised consumer price index for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to increase by 3.4% from July 2007 to July 2008 (June 2008: +3.4%). Compared with the previous month, the index will be up 0.6%."
USA	9:00am	S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 y/y	-15.8%	-16.2%	-15.3%
		Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite for May Provided by: Standard & Poor's May's Release: PDF 10-City Composite y/y: -16.9%, pr. -16.3% (Apr), -15.3% (Mar), -13.6% (Feb) Housing prices in top metropolitan areas in the US continued to fall. The 20-city composite fell by 0.9% on the month and is down 15.8% on the year, while the 10-city composite fell 1.0% for the month and is now down -16.9% compared to last year. "Since August 2006, there has not been one month where we have seen overall price increases, as measured by the two Composites." The problems in the US housing market are well known by this point, excess supply as a result of over-construction and a surge in foreclosures, a smaller potential pool of buyers as the economy weakens and banks become stricter with their lending practices, and those actually interested in buying homes are sitting on the sidelines awaiting further price drops. From the Release: "Data through May 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show annual declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States generally continued to worsen in May 2008. For the second straight month, all 20 MSAs posted annual declines, nine of which are posting record lows and 10 of which are in double-digits. Both the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite are reporting record low annual declines."
USA	10:00am	Conference Board Consumer Confidence	51.9	50.0	51.0 Revised from 50.4
		For July Provided by: Conference Board Current Release: (HTML) Present Situation Index: 65.3 pr. 64.5 (Jun), 74.2 (May), 81.9 (Apr), 90.6 (Mar) Expectations Index: 43.0 pr. 41.0 (Jun), 47.3 (May), 50.0 (Apr), 49.4 (Mar) July's Conference Board Consumer Confidence figures reflect some stabilizing in the attitudes towards the current economic slowdown and inflation. This compares to Friday's Umich consumer sentiment index which surprisingly rebounded for July. Under the expectations of further deterioration, this report came as a pleasant improvement. However, consumers' feelings on present day conditions as well as outlooks are still pessimistic. Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions remained quite bleak in July. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased slightly to 32.8 percent from 31.9 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" rose to 13.1 percent from 11.5 percent last month. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market remained negative. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" edged up to 30.3 percent from 29.7 percent in June, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 13.5 percent from 14.1 percent. Consumers' outlook, while slightly improved from last month, continues to be very pessimistic. Consumers anticipating business conditions to worsen over the next six months eased to 32.4 percent from 33.5 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve edged up to 9.3 percent from 8.5 percent in June. The outlook for the labor market remains gloomy. The percent of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 37.1 percent from 35.7 percent, while those anticipating more jobs remained virtually unchanged at 8.2 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 14.2 percent from 13.1 percent.
JPN	7:50pm	Industrial Production m/m	-2.0%	-1.7%	2.8%
		Preliminary version for June Latest Release Provided by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Industrial Production y/y: 0.2%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 1.2% (May), 1.8% (Apr) Japan's industrial production declined 2% in June compared to May, preliminary data showed. It was slightly worse than the pace expected by a consensus of economists. Production was up 2.8% in May. The data shouldn't come as too much of surprise since Japan's main trading partners are being hit by the credit crunch and therefore reducing demand for industrial goods. Japanese growth for the 2nd quarter is expected to show an annualized 0.5% rate.
AUS	9:30pm	Building Approvals	-0.7%	1.0%	-7.2% Revised from -6.5%
		For June m/m (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Building Approvals y/y: -7.8%, forecast -4.1%, pr. -0.4% r (May), 5.2% (Apr)

Wednesday, July 30 \| AUD/JPY - Aussie Slides vs Yen Following Its Housing Release: The Aussie-Yen pair sank 100 pips from its session open near 103 to trade near the 102 level. The building approvals data had a clear impact around its release, and the Aussie continued falling overnight and into NY trading. The pair was as high as 104.40 last Wednesday. NZD/USD - Kiwi Falls on RBNZ Governor Bollard Comments: The New Zealand Dollar is also on the defensive these days as expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank increase. The bank's Governor Alan Bollard said borrowing costs "have room to fall" in a meeting with a business group. The Kiwi-US Dollar pair is down about 120 pips from its high yesterday, and the pair has declined from 0.7750 in the last two weeks. EUR/CHF - European Stock Gains Propel Euro Higher vs Swiss Franc: European stocks gained overnight, which boosted the Euro-Swiss Franc. The pair's overnight rally stalled following the European releases but continued to climb afterwards. The 1.63 level was important resistance last week and yesterday, and the pair managed to stay above it after a slide to begin the global session. USD/JPY - Dollar Boosted by Jobs Report, But Weakens in Afternoon Trading: The Dollar-Yen pair fell overnight after yesterday's sharp rally to trade near 107.80 prior to the NY open. The Dollar got a boost following the better than expected jobs report, but the level around 108.25 proved to be an important point of resistance. With stocks giving up some of their earlier gains, and oil prices climbing in early afternoon trading, the Dollar pared its gains and was below its open for the session by 2 PM. AUD/CAD - Loonie Gains on Aussie Following Data in Both Countries: In a battle of two currencies favored as destinations for carry trade the Australian Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair showed a sharp slide in favor of the Loonie. Australia's weaker data and the faster producer inflation from Canada made this a one-sided trade this session. Since yesterday's high near 0.98 the pair is down about 150 pips. Market Highlights Nilsson's Commentary Full report: Greenback Flat Ahead of Important Data Video Recap
Region	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EMU	4:00am	Retail PMI	46.0		44.0
		For July Provided by: PR Newswire Release: Press Release Germany: 46.4, pr. 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May), 44.6 (Apr) France: 51.3, pr. 48.7 (Jun), 59.6 (May), 46.2 (Apr) Italy: 38.2, pr. 36.3 (Jun), 38.8 (May), 31.4 (Apr) From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector, rose from 44.0 in June to 46.0 in July. By remaining below the 50.0 level, the index pointed to a further fall in sales during the month despite an easing in the rate of decline from the steep pace seen in June. The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government issued figures based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France and Italy, suggests that retail conditions remained difficult at the start of the third quarter. The PMI indicates sales falling at a pace broadly similar to the average recorded over the second quarter -- which had seen the steepest drop yet recorded for any quarter over the survey history. Retailers blamed the latest decline in sales on deteriorating consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and household finances being squeezed by rising energy costs."
EMU	5:00am	Economic Sentiment Indicator	89.5	93	94.9
		For July Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF Services: 1, forecast 8, pr. 9 (Jun), 8 (May), 7 (Apr), 9 (Mar) Industrial: -8, forecast -7, pr. -5 (Jun), -2 (May), -2 (Apr), -1 (Mar), Consumer: -20, forecast -18, pr. -17 (Jun), -15 (May), -12 (Apr), -12 (Mar) European economic sentiment fell 5.3 points to 89.5 in July, the sharpest decline since the month after the Sept. 11th terrorist attacks. Soaring energy costs and the Euro's climb against the Dollar will work to pressure consumers and executives. Consumers, no doubt are worried about inflation, which is currently running at a 16-year high of 4%. Companies face similar challanges, as their production costs increase amid a tense situation in financial markets which is limiting access to capital. With such a weak report, adding to a string of data that has pointed to a slowdown in the Euro-zone economy, the ECB may be hard pressed to raise rates further in order to combat inflation. Services took the biggest step back falling from a measure of 9 to 1, while consumer confidence continued sliding, posting a -20 compared to June's -17. The Euro lost ground to the Dollar, extending its losses from yesterday's sharp fall. The Dollar was boosted in the NY session by better than expected by a US jobs report. From the Release: "In July, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined sharply in both the EU and the euro area. It fell by 5.8 points in the EU and by 5.3 points in the euro area, to 88.7 and 89.5 respectively. In both regions, the ESI recorded its largest month-on-month decline since October 2001 to reach its lowest level since March 2003. The confidence indicators fell in all sectors, although the decline was particularly pronounced in services. Confidence also worsened further among consumers."
EMU	5:00am	Consumer Confidence	-20	-18	-17
		For July Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF Services Confidence: 1, forecast 8, pr. 9 (Jun), 8 (May), 7 (Apr), 9 (Mar), Industrial Confidence: -8, forecast -7, pr. -5 (Jun), -2 (May), -2 (Apr), -1 (Mar) See Economic Sentiment Indicator for commentary.
EMU	5:00am	Business Climate Indicator	-0.21	-0.02	0.14
		For July Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF From the Release: "The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area continued to decline and now stands below its long-term average. The low level of the indicator suggests that economic activity in industry, which saw a fall in production in May, remains subdued. All the five underlying components of the BCI registered a decrease. Industrial managers' production expectations and their appraisal of total order books deteriorated most, but their assessment of production trend observed in recent months and export order books also declined significantly. Their assessment of stocks of finished products worsened only slightly."
SWZ	5:30am	Leading Index	0.90	0.96	0.99 Revised from 1.01
		For July Provided by: The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research Previous Release: PDF The leading index fell more than expected in July, posting a 0.90 compared to June's 0.99. It's the lowest level in almost 5 years. The index tries to gauge activity 6 months from now. Swiss exports are being weighed down by slowing global demand, a stronger franc, and soaring raw material costs. Financial giants such as UBS and Credit Suisse are being pressured by the global financial crisis, while consumers are feeling the squeeze as a result of higher inflation. From a growth rate of 3.1% last year, growth may slow to 1.9% in 2008 and 1.3% in 2009 the government siad on June 23rd. With stocks up in Europe and the US, the Swiss Franc fell lower today, continuing its slide from yesterday. From the Release: "The barometer has again eased relative to the June 2008 figure, and in July lies at 0.90 points. This means the Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly in the months ahead. The July figure for the KOF Economic Barometer is 0.90 points. This corresponds to a decline of nearly 0.1 points relative to the figure for June.With its downwards trend the barometer is signaling a slower gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in comparison to the same quarter of the previous year. The KOF economic barometer is based on a multi-sectoral design with three modules. Their contribution to the development of the barometer is as follows: the Core GDP module (GDP excluding construction and banking) has declined further. The Construction and Banking modules, by contrast, have stabilised for the present."
USA	8:15am	ADP Employment Change	9K	-55K	-79K
		For July Provided by: Automatic Data Processing Previous Release: PDF The ADP measure of employment change saw a 9K increase, handily beating expectations of a 55K decline. It was welcome news to Dollar bulls who used the data to bid up stocks and the US Dollar. Still, the number is not impressive in its own right and shows that the labor market in the US remains weak. Service jobs rose while manufacturers shed payrolls. Large and medium sized companies cut jobs, while small businesses advanced. The report showed that two of the hardest hit industries recently, construction and financial activities saw some moderation. From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from May to June was revised up from a decrease of 79,000 to a decrease of 77,000. Though July’s figures showed a slight employment gain, the ADP Report’s recent three-month average of negative 14,000 suggests that the weakened employment situation continues. This month’s employment gain was driven by growth in the service-providing sector which advanced 74,000. July employment in the goods-producing sector declined 65,000, while manufacturing employment declined 49,000, marking their twentieth and twenty-third consecutive monthly declines, respectively."
CAN	8:30am	Producer Price Index m/m	1.3%	1.0%	0.9% Revised from 0.6%
		Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for June Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: Press Release PPI y/y: 5.4%, pr. 2.7% r (May), 1.0% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar) RMPI m/m: 4.4%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 3.1% (May), 5.1% (Apr), 6.7% (Mar) Producer prices rose 1.3% in June, more than expected and May's figure was revised up to show a 0.9% gain compared to the 0.6% originally reported. Higher oil and coal product, rose 6.1% in June, and were the main contributors to increased prices. Still that rate is slower than the advances seen the last 3 months, which were just over 8.0%, the report said. The annual rate of inflation jumped to 5.4%, twice the rate of growth posted in May (2.7% revised from 2.4%). Excluding petroleum and coal products would knock that number down to an annual change of 0.4%. Even though higher oil prices help the value of the Canadian Dollar, since its a main export, Canadian companies still face the same high costs for energy the rest of the world is, and that is shining through in this data. Higher inflation data usually leads to a strengthening of a currency as the central bank is more likely to look to raise interest rates. However today's data came amid a US Dollar rally thanks to a better than expected US jobs report which gave the USD/CAD pair a boost in favor of the greenback. From the Release: "In June, the significant increase in price for petroleum pushed up the price index for manufactured goods by 1.3% from May and 5.4% from a year ago. The price index for raw materials was also affected, rising 4.4% from May and 31.9% from a year ago. Prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 1.3% between May and June, up from the 0.9% increase a month earlier. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) continued its upward trend with an increase of 4.4% in June, up from the 3.1% rise in May. The advance of the RMPI in June was driven mainly by strong prices for mineral fuels, mainly crude oil, which rose for a fourth consecutive month. If mineral fuels were excluded, the RMPI would have fallen 1.4% in June, a slower rate of decline than May's drop of 1.9%."
CAN	8:30am	Raw Materials Price Index	4.4%	3.0%	3.1%
USA	10:35am	Crude Oil Inventories	-0.1M		-1.6M
UK	7:01pm	Consumer Confidence Index (GfK)	-39	-37	-34
		For July Provided by: GfK Group Official Release: Press Release From the Release: Donna Culverwell in the Consumer Confidence team at GfK NOP commented: "The Index score has dropped again this month and is now at its lowest level since the survey began in 1974. At -39, this is 4 points lower than in March 1990 when the UK was heading into the grip of the last recession. With the cost of living still on the increase, the housing market in a depression and reports of possible further increases in energy prices, levels of confidence amongst consumers are not surprisingly low, especially amongst women or those over the age of 50. There seems to be little sign of any relief either; with the growing spectre of the UK going into recession, people are pessimistic and concerned about their future - reflected in the biggest drop this month being seen in people's confidence in their own personal financial situation over coming twelve months."
JPN	7:15pm	Manufacturing PMI	47.0		46.5
		For June The NTC Research/Nomura/JMMA Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing activity in Japan contracted again in June. The PMI measured 47,0, as domestic demand cools and foreign demand for Japanese goods also decreases as a result of the global credit crunch.
AUS	9:30pm	Retail Sales m/m	-1.0%	0.2%	0.9% Revised from 0.7%
		For June (s.a.) Official Release: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian retail sales tumbled in June, falling 1%, the largest decline in 6 years. Consumers are curbing spending in the face of rising gas prices and the highest borrowing costs in 17 years. Sales at department stores was down 5.2% with clothing sales down 5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia was very proactive in trying to quell inflation, and had increased interest rates 3 times in 2008. The effect has been a moderation in domestic demand, as evident by this piece of data. Consumer confidence is down, unemployment is increasing and the housing market has slackened. Like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Australian central bank may need to cut rates in order to make sure a moderation in growth doesnt turn into a more severe downturn.
AUS	9:30pm	Trade Balance	0.4B	-0.1B	-0.3B Revised from -1.0B
		For June Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics Impact: High Imports m/m: -1.0%, pr. 6.0% (May), -2.2% (Apr), 1.3% (Mar), -0.2% (Feb) Exports m/m: 2.0%, pr. 1.0%, (May), 5.8% (Apr), 4.4% (Mar), -4.1% (Feb) The Australian trade balance showed a A$411 million surplus in June compared to a revised deficit of A%253 million in May. It's the second month out of three that the trade balance was positive. Exports were up 2%, mainly on increased coal and meat exports. Price increases to commodities such as iron ore, coal and others should help support this sector of the Australian economy, even as consumer spending and housing succumb to the pressure of high borrowing costs and moderating growth. Prior to April, Australia had 74 straight month of trade deficits.
AUS	9:30pm	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.4%	0.5%	0.5% Revised from 0.6%
		For June Latest Release Provided by: Bank of Australia Private Sector Credit y/y: 11.7%, forecast 12.1%, pr. 13.4%
JPN	9:30pm	Average Cash Earnings y/y	-0.6%	0.6%	0.8% Revised from 0.2%
		For June Provided by: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, decreased 0.6% in June compared to the same time last year. Bonuses were down 1.5%. It's the first time this year that wages were negative. Japanese households have already been cutting back on spending as a result of higher prices for gas, food and other goods. Lower wages will only further depress consumer confidence. Japanese growth is set to show a very weak 2nd quarter as exports, production and household spending decline.
NZ	11:00pm	Business Confidence	-43.2		-38.7
		For June Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand Official Release: Press Release From the Release: "The economy needs oxygen. Business confidence has retreated. A net 43 percent expect worse times over the year ahead, down from a net 38 percent last month. It is the trend in how firms feel about their own business that is most disconcerting. Firms’ own activity expectations have sunk deeper into the red. A net 8 percent expect conditions for their own business to worsen over the coming year. Not since 1988, and the start of the survey, have we seen five successive months where firms’ own activity expectations have been negative. While the rural heartland and confidence towards agriculture remain positive, it’s a sea of red ink across retailing, manufacturing, construction and services."

Thursday, July 31 |

AUD/JPY - Aussie Continues Sliding Following Negative Retail Sales :The Aussie fell further against the Yen today with increased speculation that the Reserve bank of Australia will follow in the footsteps of the New Zealand central bank and look to cut rates as growth moderates. The pair fell from an overnight high near 102.40 to trade near 101.60 by noon NY time.
GBP/CHF - Pound Rises vs Swiss Franc Despite Weaker Data: The Pound-Swiss Franc pair fell in the wake of the 2 UK releases, testing the area near 2.07. The Pound then recovered only to fall in the wake of the NY open. London stocks, and investor confidence bounced back yet again, pushing the pair to test its highest from yesterday around the 2.0780 level.
EUR/USD - Dollar Falls Following Jobs Data But Recovers: The Euro-Dollar pair reacted swiftly to the US jobs data, climbing to test 1.57. However, that initial gains were cut down and the pair was trading near its open for the session. The knee-jerk reaction to the poor jobs data was countered by a drop in oil prices. The greenback experienced was similar back and forth action against the Pound and Yen as well.

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