For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics (ONS)

Ind. Production y/y: -1.6%, forecast -0.7%, pr. 0.2% (Apr), 0.1% (Mar)

Industrial production declined 0.8% on the month and 1.6% on the year, surprised forecasts on the downside. Manufacturing production fell 0.8% the report said. Its adds to a slew of releases recently showing the UK economy sputtering, including the Manufacturing PMI plummeting to a six-year low in June. The declines in production were broad-based across the sector, and will add pressure on the Bank of England to further lower rates this year, though not at this week's meeting.

The news sent the Pound reeling against the Dollar, as the GBP/USD pair plunged around 150 pips overnight.   

For July
Provided by: Sentix

For May
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The total value of building permits increased for the second consecutive month in May, despite a substantial decline in the residential sector. Contractors took out $6.6 billion in permits in May, up 1.1% from April and the highest value for permits since October 2007. The total was 6.7% above the monthly average for 2007.

It was the first back-to-back increase in construction intentions since November 2006, and could point to busy construction sites in the coming months. The value of building permits has followed an upward trend since the beginning of the year.

In the non-residential sector, municipalities issued $2.9 billion in permits, up 12.8%, a second consecutive gain. The rise came mostly from strong increases in the industrial and institutional intentions.

The value of permits in the residential sector has been on a downward trend since September 2007. Residential intentions fell 6.6% to $3.7 billion in May, the result of a considerable decrease in the value of multi-family permits."

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)

The latest Business Opinion Survey noted the 0.3% contraction in Q1 quarter GDP, and projected further decline in the June and September quarter, which by definition would be a recession. Firm's expectations of rising costs jumped from a 62% balance in Q1 to 71%, the highest since December of 1986. The persistence of inflation is becoming a driver of inflation itself, as more firms are expecting to increase selling prices in the next three months, based on their expectations of increasing costs.

Stagflation is the word used by the report, which is no surprise as input costs continues to rise. The NZD has been weakening, which is a reason manufacturers do have a slightly more optimistic view, but this comes after the sub gauge for general business situation hit the a of 56% negative resonse in Q1. In Q2 54% expected deteoriating business conditions, only a slight improvement.

For June
Provided by: National Australian Bank
Official Release: PDF

Business Conditions: 0, pr. 7 (May), 7 (Apr), 7 (Mar), 11 (Feb), 13 (Jan)

Australian business confidence fell to the lowest level in 7 years, measuring -9 in June, a 5 point fall from May's -4. Domestic demand is grinding to a halt as raw material costs cut into operating costs and profits. That is translating into weaker employment. 

From the Release:

"- Business conditions deteriorated sharply and unexpectedly in June.
- Sustained slowdown in sales & profits begins to slow job gains & lowers capacity usage.
- Near term negative confidence weakens significantly further & forward orders subdued.
- Survey implies domestic demand up 2½-3% during 07/08:slower than Nab & most forecast.
- Economy-wide purchase costs rising a lot, while current inflation edging higher.
- Australian GDP growth is still expected at around 2¾% for both 2008 & 2009 - supported by personal income tax cuts, a rebound in farm output & stronger commodity prices.
- Substantial downside risks to growth at home & abroad, but sustained higher oil/ energy prices add to medium term inflation risks.
- RBA to look thru high inflation in near term & remain on hold for rest of 2008. Nab expects cuts to cash rate during 2009 in response to sustained slower growth & lower "core" CPI."

For May
Provided by: Communities and Local Government
Official Release: Press Release
Official Release: PDF 

From the Release:

"The key points from the release are:

• The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK stood at £218,151 in May 2008, down from £218,875 in April 2008 (not seasonally adjusted).
• UK house prices grew by 3.7 per cent in the year to May 2008, down from 4.9 per cent in April 2008. Annual house price growth was 7.8 per cent in London in the year to May, up from 7.5 per cent in April.
• By country annual house price growth was highest in Scotland (+6.9 per cent) and lowest in Northern Ireland (-7.8 per cent). Annual house prices grew by 1.5 per cent in Wales, and rose by 3.8 per cent in England.
• UK house prices grew by 0.5 per cent in the quarter ending May 2008. This compares with a fall of 0.6 per cent for the quarter ending February 2008."

Stockpiles continue to rise even as sales of goods surged on back of petro sales. Sales roes 1.6% after an upwardly revised 1.6% in April. On the year sales are up 13.7%, and inventories grew 8.7%. The inventories-to-sales ratio declined to 1.08 from 1.13 in May, and continues a trend of decline.

For June (not seasonally-adjusted)
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Current Conditions: 56, pr. 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 74 (Mar)
Expectations Index: 64, pr. 75 (May), pr. 74 (Apr), 79 (Mar)
Spending Index: 63, pr. 60 (May), pr. 65 (Apr), 67 (Mar)

The Nationwide Consumer Confidence index fell again this month, hitting a new low at 63 using the older non seasonally adjusted index. The new seasonally adjusted index, which came into use starting this month, showed a drop to 61 from 65. The biggest shift came from future economic expectations. "It is likely that ongoing economic uncertainty, a weakening housing market and the higher cost of food and fuel have all contributed to the growth in negative impact on consumer sentiment."

From the Release: "This month’s drop in confidence is to be expected given the recent run of bad news. With reports of rising inflation rates, weaker economic growth and further falls in house prices, it is not surprising that people are feeling much less optimistic about the future. While consumers appear to be fairly relaxed about the availability of jobs, with unemployment beginning to rise, we are likely to see a change in labour market sentiment over the coming months.”

GBP/USD - Pound Jumps on Dollar Weakness to Rally 125 Pips Despite Weaker Data Earlier: The Pound-Dollar pair hit a low following the confidence data near 1.9675, but the rest of the overnight session and NY trading saw a 125 pip surge, bringing the pair back to yesterday's high at 1.98. If the pair stalls here, it looks to be forming a sideways range. In Monday's session the Pound was pressured by weak industrial production data.

For July
Provided by: Melbourne Institute (subscription req'd)
Current Media Release

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index fell from 84.7 in June to 79.0 in July, the lowest for the index since January 1992. The index has dropped 34.6% over the last year, and Westpac's Chief Economist Bill Evans expects the slide to near an end. He explained that the sharp fall is most likely due to petrol and oil prices, which has magnified effects on sentiments of households and consumers.

Since last week's stronger-than-expected retail sales, Australia has released a string of weak data. The reserve bank has been anticipating a slowdown, which can have downside pressure on inflation. Evans believes that the bank will lower its growth forecast but still focus on the elevated inflation.

AUD/USD - Ausse Climbs 100 Pips from Low, as Greenback Weakness Enters Markets Following Iranian Missile Test: Following the release, the Aussie-US Dollar traded below 0.95, the lowest since June 19^th. From this oversold level, the pair jumped about 100 pips as political evens brought pressure on the greenback. Overnight, Iran test fired several long range missiles, in a show of what kind of retaliation the country can take if its nuclear sites are attacked. The increase in tensions gave oil prices a lift after two days of sharp falls.

For May
Provided by: German Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Aoril's Release: Press Release

Imports m/m: 0.7%, forecast 0.3%, pr. -2.1% (Apr), 0.6% (Mar)
Exports m/m: -3.2%, forecast 0.0%, pr. 1.2% (Apr), -0.8% (Mar)

The German trade surplus shrank in May to €14.4B, undershooting forecasts. Exports were down 3.2%, the biggest fall since June 2004. Global growth is slowing, creating less demand and the strong Euro makes German goods more expensive abroad. German exports have been a strong driver of activity during the 1st quarter. It paves a way for a rough 2nd quarter as domestic demand eases, and foreign orders slipping.  

GDP y/y: 2.1%, advance 2.2%, pr. 2.2%

Europe's economic growth for the 1st quarter was revised down in the final version. GDP expanded 0.7% compared to the originally estimated 0.8%. The Euro-zone economy is cooling with indicators from manufacturing, services and consumer spending on the decline. Exports from Germany are also declining as the strong Euro makes European goods more expensive abroad while demand abroad slacks as a result of a global slowdown.

From the Release: "In the first quarter of 2008, household2 final consumption expenditure increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27 (after –0.1% and +0.1% in the previous quarter). Investment grew by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU27 (after +1.1% and +1.4%). Exports rose by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU27 (after +0.4% and +0.7%). Imports increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU27 (after –0.2% and –0.1%)."

For June
Provided by: Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts was 217,800 units in June, down from 227,700 units in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Despite the decrease in June, total housing starts remain at high levels.” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “This is mostly due to the multiple segment which has been continuously above the 100,000 unit threshold since the beginning of the year.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moved down by 5.0 per cent in June compared to May. Both urban multiples and singles decreased, with a decline of 3.0 per cent for multiples to 114,700 units, and a 7.8 per cent drop for singles to 74,600 units."

USD/CAD - Loonie Gains 100 Pips on Greenback, Strongest Session in a Week: The Loonie took the offensive against the greenback, with the US Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair sliding 100 pips to trade near 1.01. It's the biggest move in favor of the Loonie about a week, as the Canadian housing starts release, corresponded with higher oil prices and general US Dollar weakness in today's session.

For June
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Importance: Medium

CGPI m/m: 0.8%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 1.1% (May), 0.6% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar)

The Corporate Goods Price Index, a measure of producer prices rose 5.6% in June compared to a year ago. It's the fastest rate in 27 years. On the month, prices were up 0.8%. Prices are being pushed up by record oil and higher commodity prices, which companies are passing on to consumers. It is also eating into companies' profits which will affect hiring and the health of the economy. The news is evident of the type of pressures facing the major economies, the UK, Europe and the US, which are also absorbing the price of oil. Still, the news will not have much effect on the Bank of Japan which is reluctant to raise rates while the domestic economy is weakening, but may hurt stocks.

For June
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: Press Release

The New Zealand economy continues to show sign of weakness, with its manufacturing sector coming under serious strain in June. The PMI was the second weakest since the survey started in 2002.

From the Release: ""The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for June (45.7) experienced a significant drop in activity, to record its second lowest result since the survey began in 2002. It was also the lowest June value recorded, with the previous lowest being June 2007 (52.6). Unadjusted results for June showed contraction in activity nation wide.

Four of the five main diffusion indices recorded ongoing weakening. Production (42.3) fell to its lowest result, while new orders (44.8) reverted to a value similar to March 2008. Employment (45.6) remains in decline with its second lowest value, while deliveries of raw materials (41.9) experienced the lowest value of any main index for the history of the survey (the previous lowest value for this sub-index being 43.3 in November 2005). Finished stocks (50.6) showed minor expansion."

June - Seasonally Adjusted
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

See "Employment Change" for commentary.

For July
Provided by: European Central Bank
June's Release: PDF

On the Global Economy: "Global economic activity continues to be dampened by the economic weakness in the United
States, by the global repercussions of the fi nancial turmoil and increasingly by high oil and non-oil
commodity prices. The slowdown in economic growth concerns mainly developed economies, as
economic growth remains robust in emerging markets. At the same time, headline consumer price
infl ation in OECD countries remains high, boosted by sharp rises in oil and non-energy commodity
prices. On balance, the risks to the outlook for global growth continue to lie on the downside."

On Inflation: "In June 2008 euro area HICP infl ation is estimated to have further increased to 4.0%, from 3.7% in
May, most likely owing to renewed increases in energy prices. Elevated and persistent external price
pressures stemming from oil and food commodity price developments, combined with intensifying
domestic pipeline pressures and an acceleration of wage dynamics, point to a protracted period of
high annual rates of infl ation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil and food commodities,
euro area HICP infl ation is likely to remain well above 2% for quite some time, moderating only
gradually in 2009.

Risks to price stability over the medium-term horizon remain clearly on the upside and have
increased further over the past few months. These risks include notably the possibility of further
increases in energy and food prices. There is also a very strong concern that price and wage-setting
behaviour could add to infl ationary pressures via broadly based second-round effects. Furthermore,
there are potential upside risks from unanticipated rises in indirect taxes and administered prices."

For Week Ending July 5th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (Jul 5): 380,500, pr. 390,500, 378,250, 376,000
Continuing Claims (Jun 28): 3.2M, pr. 3.11M, 3.139M, 3.06M, 3.139M

Jobless claims declined by the largest amount in nearly 3 years, falling by 58K for the week ending July 5th. The figure was influenced by seasonal factors, where a typical increase in jobless claims around this time of the year did not materialize, and therefore shows a large decline. Those continuing to receive benefits rose by 91K to 3.2 million.