For April
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release
Official Release: PDF

Exports: 3.80B, forecast 3.48B, pr. 3.44B (Mar), 3.71B (Feb)
Imports: 4.13B, forecast 3.59B, pr. 3.49B (Mar), 3.45B (Feb)

The New Zealand trade deficit widened in April as imports jumped to NZ$4.13, outpacing the rise in exports to NZ$3.80B. For the year, these amount to 19.7% and 22% changes, respectively. Exports reached a new high. Imports were affected by two large purchases - an oil platform and an oil production vessel - a combined value of NZ$477.

From the Release: "Exports reached another new high in April 2008, the third in the last five months. April 2008 was also the eighth consecutive month to show significant increases (from the same month of the previous year) led by crude oil, and milk powder, butter and cheese. Crude oil exports were up $265 million to reach a record high of $311 million – this followed the March figure of $130 million, which was the lowest since production from the Tui oilfield began. Oil is exported and imported in large, irregular shipments and the timing of these can make a big difference to monthly figures. Milk powder, butter and cheese exports were up $131 million and contributed 19.6 percent of total exports for April 2008."

For April
Provided by: The Bank of Japan
Indicator Page: Main Page
Official Release: PDF

CSPI m/m: 0.1%, pr. 0.4% (Mar), 0.3% (Feb), -1.2% (Jan)

Provided by: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Inflation is expected to increase in the next year and 2 years, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's survey of business managers. Two-year-ahead expectations rose to 2.9% from the previous figure of 2.7%. The survey also showed that managers expect unemployment to increase to 4.1% by next March, it is currently at 3.6%. GDP is expected to increase 1.4% one year from now. Six months ago expectations were for a 2.3% growth rate. Also, the New Zealand Dollar is expected to depreciate against the US Dollar, with an exchange rate of US$0.74 at the end of September 2008, and to US$0.71 by the end of March 2009. Also, interest rates by March 2009 are expected to be lower.

The immediate response to the news was a rise in the Kiwi to 0.7919 against the US Dollar, testing resistance from May 5th. The Kiwi also gained on the Yen as Asian stocks gained and helped boost carry trade positions. Higher inflation expectations will also work to increase speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep their official cash rate at 8.25% for longer.

From the Release: "Consumer price index (CPI) inflation expectations for both the one and two year horizons have increased since the last survey. Average one-year-ahead Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation expectations are now 3.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points since the March quarter survey. Two-year-ahead expectations are now 2.9%, compared with a previous figure of 2.7%. The median two-year rate is now 3.0%.

Expectations of quarterly changes in the CPI for the next two quarters are little changed. Expectations for the June quarter CPI have risen slightly, from 0.8% last quarter to 0.9% this quarter. An increase of 0.7% is expected for September 2008. These quarterly increases are equivalent to annual rates of 3.3% for the year to June 2008 and 3.5% for September 2008."

For June
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: News Release
Official Release: PDF

Expectations of German consumers dipped in May, as the strong performance in German GDP in the 1st quarter is not expected to continue. The situation in financial markets and in the US is expected to elad to a slowdown in the rate of growth. Inflation took a bite out of consumer confidence as well, as it is expected to continue eroding purchasing power. Despite a strong labor market income expectations saw a decline as consumers are concerned that any income gains will be overshadowing by higher prices and rising energy costs. 

From the Release: "Rising inflation in May of this year has clouded the mood among consumers. The economic outlook indicator, income expectations and the propensity to buy all suffered considerable losses. As a result, the consumer climate indicator for June is forecasting a value of 4.9 points after a revised 5.6 points in May.

Gasoline prices constantly hitting new record highs and further looming price increases are causing German consumers to worry about their purchasing power. This has led to income expectations being assessed less positively than in the prior month. Price increase expectations also meant that the propensity to buy fell sharply in May. Concerns about price stability and uncertainty resulting from the crisis on the financial markets and the flagging US economy are currently fueling economic fear amongst German consumers. This has resulted in the economic downturn becoming somewhat more pronounced than at the beginning of the year."

For April in Swiss Francs

The Swiss trade surplus widened in April to 1.566 billion Swiss francs. This was a big increase from the same time last year which saw a 628.2 million francs figure. Exports were up 18.3% on the year (for a total of 18.73B), while imports were up 19.9% (for a total of 17.16B). 

The Swiss Franc was trading weaker against the Dollar, as today's trading saw a rebound in carry trade sentiment and a return to Dollar strength. Last week saw the USD/CHF fall 330 pips from its weekly high, and today's action may suggest a correction to the downward trend. It was a similar story against the Euro and Pound, though the Swiss Franc did continue its gains against the Yen, which saw overall weakness in the markets with risk appetite returning. 

For April
Provided by: British Bankers' Association (BBA)
Official Release: PDF 

Approvals for house purchases continued to e well down on the same period in 2007. April's 38,704 mortgage approvals is 39.4% lower than April of 2007. The figure is slightly higher than the March period. Approvals for re-mortgaging were strong in April. Banks approved 74,722 re-mortgages an increase of 14,300 on last month and 20.3% higher than April 2007. 

New Home Sales m/m: 3.3%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -11.0% (rev from -8.5%)

New home sales showed a 3.3% increase for the month of April, though the number corresponds to a downwardly revised March figure. The annual pace for April was 526K new home sales, up from 509K in March. The revised figure for March was the lowest in 17 years, while housing prices are falling the S&P/Case Shiller report showed today. The housing market will continue to be a drag on the US economy, and financial institutions will continue to have problems as long as prices keep coming down and more homes are enter foreclosure. Lenders have tightened up their standards, while home purchasers are reluctant to buy. The housing situation does not seem to be bottoming out.

Manufacturing in the Richmond Fed region contracted in May. The Shipments index fell to -1 from April's 6. Economists did not expect this pace of slowing, but signs of future outlook improved. From the release:

Looking ahead, manufacturers were generally more optimistic in May. Contacts at firms anticipated that their new orders, orders backlogs and capacity utilization would rise more rapidly in coming months.

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction activity in Australia rebounded in the March quarter, indicating steady growth in the sector, particularly engineering. The 2.3% rise helped offset the revised 0.8% decline for the December quarter.The number means that construction should be a positive for GDP figures set to come out next Wednesday. As some sectors of the economy lose steam, it seems that construction work which totaled A$16.45 billion, seasonally adjusted, is one sector that continues to grow. 

For April
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

IPI y/y: 5.7%, forecast 5.5%, pr. 5.7%

Excluding oil products, the index is up only 1.5% on the year. The pace in April picked up faster than economists had expected, and sustains the issue of elevated inflation.

From the Release: "In April 2008, the index of import prices increased by 5.7% from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March and in February 2008 the annual rates of change were +5.7% and +5.9%, respectively. The index of import prices, excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, was 1.5% above the level of April 2007. From March to April 2008 the index of import prices rose by 0.9%.

The index of export prices increased 2.2% in April 2008 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In March and in February 2008 the annual rates of change were +2.2%, each. From March 2008 to April 2008 the index rose by 0.3%."

Orders ex. Transportation: 2.5% pr. 1.5% (Mar), pr. -2.1% (Feb)

Total orders for durable goods declined, but at a slower pace than economists estimated. Orders for transportation equipments dropped 8.0% after 5.1% in March. Without this component, orders increased 2.5%. Excluding defense equipments, orders were down 0.3%. Stripping both transportation and defense equipments from the index, the reading is a 4.2% increase. This indicates business equipment spending and is a welcome sign amidst a weaknening economy.

New Orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $1.0 billion or 0.5 percent to $214.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third decrease in four months and followed a 0.3 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.3 percent.

Shipments: Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $212.2 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent March decrease.

Preliminary Release for May
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

CPI y/y: 3.0%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 2.4% (Apr), pr. 3.1% (Mar)
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -0.3% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar)
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 3.0%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.6% (Apr), pr. 3.3% (Mar)

Consumer inflation in the Germany accelerated in May, preliminary information showed, giving the ECB more support for its stance to keep rates at their current level. For the month, inflation was up 0.6%, while the annual rate rose to 3% from April's 2.4%. Both figure were above expectations. For the monthly change, prices were led by increases to prices of heating oil and diesel fuel. The implication is that consumer inflation will be higher in the Euro-zone for the May period. The Euro was down today against the Dollar and Pound, so traders have overlooked the data for now, or have already decided that the ECB is going to stick with its stance on making sure there aren't second-round price effects in the medium term. 

For May
Provided by: Nationwide House Prices
Official Release: PDF

Nationwide House Prices y/y: -4.4%, forecast -2.1%, pr. -1.0%
Average Price: £173,583, pr. £178,555 (Apr), £179.110 (Mar)
Headlines from the Release:

• House prices fell by 2.5% in May
• Prices are 4.4% lower than this time last year, but remain 5% higher than 2 years ago
• Falling house prices combined with higher inflation makes MPC decision more difficult still
• Borrowers are better placed to weather the storm than in the 1990s
• Tighter credit conditions should help the longer term sustainability of the market

The UK housing market continues its downturn. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Cheif Economist is calling for MPC members to side with Blanchflower in voting for rate cuts soon. The 2.5% decline is the largest monthly drop on record. The annual rate of decline is also the highest since December of 1992. She also notes that at seven months, this is the longest consecutive monthly periods in which house prices fell, since 1992. The report still reminds readers that despite the slide, house prices remain 5% higher than 2 years ago, and 10% higher than 3 years ago. She pointed out that fortunately borrowers today are in a better condition to deal with this credit storm, compared to a similar downturn in the early 90's.

For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Labor Agency (for Apr)

German Unemployment Change (May): 4K, forecast -25K, pr -7K (Apr), -55K (Mar)
ILO Unemployment Rate (Apr): 7.4%, forecast 7.3%, pr. 7.4% (Mar), 7.6 (Feb)

German unemployment increased by 4K in May from April to 3.31 million. Its the first time since January 2006 that the unemployment change figure showed an increase. Employmnet had been pushed up by strong demand for exports, but now the higher Euro and a spreading global slowdown have cut back that extra demand. Exports fell for a second month in March, data showed. Also, a mild winter helped construction jobs. The positive developments in employment may have seen a peak, and one should moniter what happens to employment from here on out in Germany.

For May
Provided by: PR Newswire
Release: Press Release

Germany: 56.6, pr. 44.6
France: 59.6, forecast 49.5, pr. 46.2
Italy: 38.8. pr. 31.4

Retail sales activity rose above the 50 boom-bust level in Germany and France, though it remained in contraction in Italy (though the Italian PMI improved from 31.8 to 38.8). The increase was the first in 3 months and was picked up by sales of clothing and food. This is a welcome sign for the ECB which has held rates steady at 4% in order to combat inflation. Confidence among consumers and executives remains near 3 year lows, and the unemployment level increased in Germany. The 2nd quarter is proving to be more difficult for the Euro-zone as a whole as the high value of the Euro, higher inflation, tighter credit, and a global slowdown are all working to slow the European economy's momentum. This latest uptick in retail sales activity may prove to be short lived, as consumer confidence erodes. 

From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)") indicates that European retail sales for May rose the most since April of last year and showed the first increase for three months. The Bloomberg Eurozone PMI, an indicator based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector and providing data one month ahead of government issued figures, registered 53.1 in May, a solid recovery from April's survey low of 41.8. The improvement reflected higher sales of clothing & footwear, food & drink and household goods, commonly attributed to better weather compared to April and to the timing of Easter.

Despite the pick-up during May, sales have fallen over the first five months of the year on average, suggesting that business conditions in the Eurozone retail sector are generally subdued."

For May
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: 8, pr. 7 (Apr), 9 (Mar), 10 (Feb)
Industrial: -2, pr. -2 (Apr), -1 (Mar), 0 (Feb)
Consumer: -15, pr. -12 (Apr), -12 (Mar), -12 (Feb)
Retail Trade: -1, pr. -12 (Apr), 1 (Mar), 1 (Feb)
Construction: -10, pr. -12 (Apr), -9 (Mar), -7 (Feb)

The economic sentiment indicator, which combines the confidence of the 5 sectors above, stayed at the same level as it did in April. The 97.1 reading is the lowest since August 2005, but expectations did call for it to fall even lower, which it resisted. A fall in consumer confidence to -15 was offset by increases to confidence in retail trade, and slight improvements in construction and services. The services sector is the only one that is currently in positive territory. Manufacturing confidence stayed at -2 for a second straight month. 

The Euro-zone's problems include a strong currency, soaring oil costs, high inflation, and cooling foreign demand from economies that are in the midst of a slowdown. Also, the central bank is unwilling to budge in its stance of keeping rates at 4% in order to combat inflation.  

From the release:

Asked about their year-on-year sales volumes, 28% of retailers said they had increased, while 42% said they had fallen. The resulting balance of -14% was in line with retailers' expectations and is less severe than the net -26% reported last month. Sales are expected to recover slightly in June, by a balance of +6%.

For Week Ending May 24th
Latest Release Provided by: The Department of Labor

4-Week Moving Average (May 23rd): 372,250, pr. 372K, 367K
Continuing Claims (May 17th): 3.104M, forecast 3.08M, pr. 3.073M, 3.073M

Weakness in the labor market has continued through May, after it has shed jobs everymonth so far this year. Continuing claims, those claiming unemployment benefits for more than a week, rose 36,000 to 3,104,000, the highest level since February 2004. Michigan led the way in states with fewer layoffs, stemming from its automobile industry. Pennsylvania had the highest layoffs this week, coming from the manufacturing industry.