For March
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

Permits for owner occupied housing fell 6.1% in March after a upwardly revised 6.8% drop in February. The seasonally adjusted total of 59,371 permits from February to March values 14,224 billion AUD, a 4.4% decline from the previous month. The RBA acknowledges a moderation in housing as well as the general economy. So far, although signs point to declining demand and worsening consumer and business confidence, a resilient workforce should keep the Australian economy in decent shape to weather the ongoing global slowdown. The Aussie traded lower following the news, but rebounded overnight.

PPI Output: 7.5%, forecast 6.4%, pr. 6.2% (Mar), 5.9% (Feb)
PPI Output Core m/m: 1.0%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.3%
PPI Output Core y/y: 4.6%, forecast 3.2%, pr. 3.1%

Producer prices in the UK showed no signs of easing up, as prices climbed to the fastest annual pace since at least 1986. Prices charged by factories (PPI Output) rose 7.5% on the year and 1.4% on the month, both the highest totals since records began being kept. Core prices were up 4.6% on the year.

Raw material costs (PPI Input) rose 2.4% on the month and 23.3% on the year. It's the biggest annual gain on record. Oil prices reached $126.27 per barrel last week, and will continue to have to be absorbed by the UK economy. CPI data comes out overnight on Monday, and is expected to show an increase to 2.6% for March in annual terms.

The Pound strengthened following the report, as it may cause the Bank of England to phase in rate cuts at an even more gradual pace than they are currently set to do.

For March
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

New Housing Price Index y/y: 6.1%, forecast 6.2%, pr. 6.2%

Prices for new homes rose at a monthly rate of 0.2%, from 0.3% in February, and 0.6% in January. The annual pace increased 6.1%, lower than in February. Building permits were down in March, and housing starts declined in April, perhaps signaling that the Canadian housing market may be losing some momentum as a result of tighter credit conditions. The central bank lowered rates by 50 basis points on April 22nd, its 4th cut since December. As we have seen in the US and the UK, the housing sector and financial firms associated with mortgage lending have been some of the hardest hit as a result of last summer "credit crunch" crisis. Where the Canadian housing market goes from here is an important indication of how the bank will deal with interest rates going forward, and therefore the strength of the Canadian Dollar.  

From the Release:

"Year-over-year growth in new housing prices slowed for a second consecutive month in March. This deceleration continues a downward trend that started in September 2006, due mainly to the softening market in Alberta. Contractors' selling prices rose 6.1% between March 2007 and March 2008, a slightly slower pace than the 6.2% year-over-year increase posted in February 2008. Nationally, prices rose 0.2% between February and March."

For April
Provided by: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
Official Release: Press Release
Official Release: PDF 

The RICS House Trade Balance continued to deteriorate, with now 95% of surveyors reporting a fall compared to a rise in housing prices. As the report says, its 9th month that the balance has dropped, but is an imperfect measure of how deep prices have decreased. On May 2nd, Housing Prices, measured by the Halifax Bank of Scotland, showed prices down 1.3% in April. The housing sector in the UK is being pressured by poor lending for mortgages as a result of higher credit costs, limiting transactions, which may cause home sellers to lower their prices in order to attract the smaller pool of potential buyers.

From the Release:

"The balance of Chartered Surveyors reporting house price falls increased even further but tight supply is limiting the extent of the decline, says RICS. The RICS house price balance dropped for the ninth month in succession. 95.1% more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices, an increase from 79.4% in March. However, the scale of house price falls remains relatively small at this stage compared to past downturns. The lack of new instructions to sell property continues to provide a crutch to the market.

Large numbers of distress sales (either repossessions or sales from those attempting to avoid the repossession process) have not yet appeared in the market place and, while mortgage arrears remain low and the employment situation remains strong, the lack of supply will continue to prevent large declines."

For April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Retail Price Index m/m: 0.9%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 0.3%

The retail price index, which is a measure of the cost of living used in salary negotiations, rose to 4.2% in April, the most since November. Higher fuel and utility bills are cutting into consumer spending, and may lead to workers demanding high wage increase. See the comment for CPI for more analysis. 

Advance Retail sales for April
Latest Release Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Core Retail Sales: 0.5%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.4% r(0.1%)

Retail Sales declined 0.2% meating expectations. Excluding auto sales, "core" retail sales were up 0.5%, higher than forecast. March's core sales were revised up to 0.4% compared to the original stated increase of 0.1%. Sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2.8%, the main drag on the headline figure. In March, auto sales were down 0.5%. Consumers still seem to be willing to go out and spend and compared to last month sales at gasoline stations were down 0.4% (they were up 1.6% in Mar). Sales of building materials and garden supplies increased 1.9%, 1.4% at electronics and appliance stores, and 0.5% at general merchandise stores. 

Even though auto sales are having a hard time, the surprise strength of core goods was a welcome sign for those watching consumer spending in the US during this rough environment (the 4th and 1st quarters had growth of 0.6%).  

For April
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 15.4%, forecast 15.0%, pr 14.8% (Mar), 13.6% (Feb)
Export Prices m/m: 0.3%, pr. 1.5% (Mar), 0.9% (Feb)
Export Prices y/y: 7.7%

Compared to April 2007, import prices increased 15.4% last month. Its the largest annual rise since data was first published in September of 1982. Petroleum led the charge, rising 57.2% on the year. On the month import prices wre up 1.8% compared with March's 2.9% increase. Even excluding oil, import prices climbed rather steeply suggesting the weak Dollar is making imports such as automobiles and capital goods more expensive. Higher prices for overseas products will work as an inflation risk to the US economy if these sorts of numbers persist.

For April
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Importance: Medium

CGPI m/m: 0.6%, pr. 0.5% (Mar), 0.4% (Feb)

The annual rate of growth of prices that corporations pay for goods was slower in April than in March. The 3.7% was higher than expectations. The main catalysts for higher prices were petroleum and coal products (19.6%), steel (15.6%) and processed food (3.9%).

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Wage Price Index y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.3%, pr. 4.2% (4th Q), 4.2% (3rd Q)

Wage inflation in the 1st quarter was lower in Australia than economists had forecast. Quarter-on-quarter the wage price index rose 0.9%, slower than the 1.1% seen in the 4th quarter. The annual pace declined to 4.1%, lower that the previous 2 quarters. Wages had been going up at a fast pace as Australia's commodity export sector is booming and demand for labor was strong. The tight labor market from the 4th quarter may have given way to expectations of a slowdown.   

For March
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Industrial Production y/y: 2.0%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 3.1% (Feb), 3.3% (Jan)

Industrial production declined 0.2% in March, and the annual pace of growth slowed to 2%. Production fell into the red for the second time month out of 4, with December also posting a 0.2% decline. January saw growth at 0.6%, and 0.3% in February. The higher Euro and tighter credit condition for firms is limiting the domestic and foreign demand for European goods, hurting orders, and therefore production. 

For April
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Impact: High

CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2% 

Consumer Price Index y/y: 3.9%, forecast 3.9%, pr. 4.0%
CPI ex Food & Energy y/y: 2.3%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.4%

US consumer inflation was held in check during April. Prices rose 0.2% on the month with the "core" value rising only 0.1%. Both figures were lower than forecasts. The annual rate remained at 3.9%. A slowing economy may be easing some of the price pressures as the Fed had suggested would happen. Core annual inflation was lower at 2.3%, though still above the Fed's comfort zone of 1.5% to 2%. With the Fed seemingly done cutting rates, and switching their focus on stamping out inflation, today's data was a welcome sign.

For March
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release

Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m: -0.5%, forecast -0.4%, pr 0.1%
Retail Sales Ex Inflation q/q (1st Q): -1.2%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.3%

Motor vehicle retailing was a major drag for March, much like in February. The industry's sales fell 5.3%($35 million) in March compared with February. There has been a downward trend since October last year, and is easing despite April's larger than expected declines. The decline in retail sales reflects a slowdown in the economy. A slump in the motor vehicle industry shows that consumers are avoiding big-ticket items first as they are cutting demand.

NZD/USD - Kiwi Falls Following Retail Sales Data: The New Zealand Dollar fell 60 pips to the US Dollar following the sales data, and set a low near 0.7540 overnight. The Kiwi's pared some of its overnight losses following the NY open, but hit fresh resistance at 0.76 and fell back down.

Core machinery orders fell a sharper than expected 8.3%. The trend is now downgraded from a flat reading to a weakening. There are two main factors to the poor reading. First, the global slowdown notably in the US, is dragging demand and supressing investment appetite. Secondly, Japanese companies tend to be conservative in investments to start the fiscal year and pick up orders as the year progresses.

Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

GDP w.d.a. y/y: 2.6%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 1.8% (4Q)
GDP n.s.a. y/y: 1.8%, forecast 1.4%, pr. 1.6% (4Q)

The German economy grew at a surprising 1.5% pace in the 1st quarter. This was the fastest pace in 12 years, and compares to growth of 0.3% in the 4th quarter. The first half of the first quarter did see Germany, and by extension the Euro-zone, performing better than other economies (the US grew at 0.6% in the 1st Q), but a recent run of data suggests the German economy may be losing its momentum. German exports and manufacturing orders fell in March, and business confidence declined in April. On the year, the economy grew 2.6%, when adjusted for the number of working days.

The report shows that investment was the main contributor to growth, with consumer spending helping. Exports did not aid to quarterly growth, though they did boost the annual rate. Another key was a mild winter that helped drive up performance. The Euro gained about 80 pips in the hours following the release as Euro-zone GDP for the 1st quarter also surprised on the upside.

EUR/USD - Euro Sets High Following German GDP, Falters Afterwards: The Euro gained on the better than expected GDP news to set an intra-day high at 1.5545, but the pared those gains following its inflation results. The US session had a slew of reports, most painting a gloomier picture, yet the Dollar managed to extend its gains to test 1.5420.

CPI y/y: 3.3%, prelim. 3.3%, pr. 3.6%
Core CPI y/y: 1.6%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.0%

The final version of CPI for April, showed inflation cooling to a 0.3% monthly rate and an annual rate of 3.3% - matching the flash estimate from April 30th. Inflation rose 1% on the month and 3.6% on the year in March.The surprise in the report was core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcahol and tobacco fell to 1.6% from March's 2%. The news should help ease some hawkish members of the ECB Governing Council, but rates will have to come down further before the policy members decide that bolstering growth is more important than lowering inflation. Today's GDP data from the Euro-zone suggests that the economy still did well during the 1st quarter, but that it is in store for bumpier times ahead.   

The Euro gained on the Dollar following German GDP data, set a high near 1.5546, but then retreated during the rest of overnight trading. The immediate result of the report was to weaken the Euro until it set a low near 1.5460 prior to the NY open.