For March
Provided by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Large Retailer's Sales y/y: 0.2%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 1.2 (rev from 1.3%)
Retail Sales m/m: 0.5%, forecast 0.7%, pr. -1.0%

Retail sales increased 1.1% in March as a result of increased spending on fuel. Sales at fuel retailers rose 4% from a year earlier. The data does suggest that consumer spending may not be as weak imagined when looking at the consumer sentiment data.  

For May
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: News Release
Official Release: PDF

The mood among consumers rose during April, surprising expectations on the upside. The index increased to a 7-month high on the back of rising incomes which encouraged spending, despite faster inflation and an apparent slowdown in the overall economy.

From the Release:

"The mood among German consumers markedly improved in April. The economic outlook indicator, income expectations and the propensity to buy all climbed significantly. As a result, the consumer climate indicator for May is forecasting a value of 5.9 points after a revised 4.8 points in April.

It is striking that all three indicators have gained significantly this month. Despite the persistent turmoil on the international financial markets and the high food and energy prices, German consumers appear to have regained their confidence once more. The upswing on the job market and recent wage agreements both contribute to expectations relating to the economy in general and personal financial situations being assessed more positively. This shows that conditions have improved so that the economic recovery originally forecast to take place at the beginning of the year, although delayed, is now imminent."

Preliminary Release for April
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office
Official Release: Press Release

CPI y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 3.1%
CPI EU Harmonized m/m: -0.3%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.5%
CPI EU Harmonized y/y: 2.6%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.3%

Inflation in Germany surprised forecasts on the downside. However, the ECB may not be heartened too much by the news as April's early Easter led to a drop in costs for package holidays and vacation accommodations. The harmonized European Union CPI fell to an annual pace of 2.6% from 3.3%, beating expectations. 

The Euro-zone will post its flash estimate for April consumer prices on Wednesday. 

Quarterly Business Survey, for 1st Quarter
Provided by: National Australia Bank
Official Release: Summary
Official Release: PDF 

Highlights from the Release:  

"Business confidence falls to lowest levels since 2001 while conditions also slow sharply - consistent with growth in domestic demand slowing to around 3½% in Q1;

Near and medium term expectations also revised markedly lower;

Interest sensitive sectors and finance bearing the brunt of the slowing;

Wage pressures unchanged but expectations rising and inflation momentum very high;

Global GDP forecasts unchanged at 3½% in 2008 - with the US in moderate recession but China still at very strong growth rates;

Australian GDP forecasts unchanged - at 2¾% in both 2008 & 2009 but downside risks rising. RBA nervous on inflation but on hold in 2008 - still to cut significantly in 2009."

For March
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release 

From the Release:

"After a sharp increase in February, the UBS Consumption Indicator pulled back slightly in March. But at 2.29 the indicator confirmed the high level of the previous month, and it is still significantly above its long-term average. As such, it is a sign of continuing solid growth in consumer spending in Switzerland.

The decline in March is due particularly to the 9.3% drop in new car registrations compared to a year earlier. The slight deterioration in consumer sentiment also had a negative impact. It should be noted, however, that despite the continuing upheaval in the financial markets the consumer sentiment index is still at a very high level, both in historical comparisons and compared with the US or neighbouring European countries. Factors preventing a steeper decline in the UBS Consumption indicator are the continuing growth in tourism and the improvement in the retail sector, which in March reached its highest level since July 2001."

For March
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 6.9B, forecast 7.2B, 7.3B
Net Consumer Credit: 1.2B, forecast 1.1B, pr. 2.3B

Net consumer lending fell to 8.2B pounds from 9.8B pound in February. Net consumer credit also declined, falling to 1.2B pounds. Individuals are more reluctant to borrow when the economy is facing a slowdown. The mortgage approval and lending figures from the release carried more importance for the forex markets.  

For April
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release 

From the Release:

"Year-on-year retail sales fell markedly in April as poor weather and the early Easter added to the economic slowdown to dent spending, the CBI said today (Tuesday).

Sales of big-ticket items, particularly those tied to the housing market, saw some of the biggest falls, according to the business organisation's Distributive Trades Survey.

The monthly snapshot of the high street showed that 52% of retailers said sales volumes were down on a year ago compared to 25% who said they were up. The rounded balance of -26 was the weakest since November 2005 and is only expected to improve to -15 in May, signalling further falls in sales volumes."

For April
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 80.7, pr. 90.6
Expectations Index: 50.1, pr. 49.4

Sentiments among American consumers fell further in April extending a sharp downtrend since April last year. We have heard some talks that the worst could be behind us. If that is true, April's confidence reading should be the bottom. The next survey will reveal whether or not these recovery talks permeate the market and consumers. Above all, the employment report this Friday will be the focal point of discussion and the key component in assessments of economic growth in the upcoming months.

From the Release: Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's decline in Consumer Confidence was the result of yet another sharp decline in the Present Situation Index. This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over into the second quarter, but that economic conditions may have slowed even further. And, not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns. Consumers' inflation expectations continue to rise and this measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The percentage of respondents intending to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year low, another sign of consumers turning more cost conscious. Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for the economy, the job market and their income prospects remains quite pessimistic and little changed from last month. Or, in other words, the glass remains half empty."

For April
Provided by: National Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: Press Release 

From the Release: "A net 55 percent of businesses expect business conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. This is an improvement on the net 58 percent expecting a worsening environment last month. Confidence ebbed higher in retailing, construction and services, but dipped in manufacturing and agriculture.

The economic environment is tough. The absolute level as opposed to the change in the survey indicators is telling us that in spades. Firms’ own activity expectations are seldom negative, so while an improvement is welcome, the absolute level remains disconcerting. Activity expectations, investment and employment intentions are all in the red. Hence, the fundamental story remains the same as last month. Momentum within the economy has stalled, and we may in fact be taking a step backward. Weakness in the first quarter has extended into the second. Our composite growth indicator is giving an uninviting reading on growth prospects over the coming year. The economy may do well to record positive growth at all over the coming year."

Provided by: Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.5% in a unanimous decision. The bank is expected to lower growth projections and signal that it will keep rates on hold in order to assess how the US slowdown will affect the Japanese economy going forward. Data released today showed that household spending is down, and industrial production took a big hit in March. The manufacturing PMI for April was also down. 

For April
Provided by: Nationwide House Prices
Official Release: PDF

Nationwide House Prices y/y: -1.0%, forecast -1.0%, pr. 1.1%
Average Price: £178,555, pr. £179.110

Housing Prices declined 1.1% from March to April, and fell 1% from a year earlier. It's the first annual decline in the Nationwide index since 1996.

From the Release: 

"“The latest fall in house prices follows from the steep decline in house purchase transactions over the last half year. As a result of falling demand from first-time buyers, higher mortgage rates and tighter lending criteria, the number of mortgages approved for house purchases has fallen to record lows. The fall in transactions has pushed up the stock of unsold property on the market and improved the bargaining power of buyers, thus pushing down on prices.

“Although retail spending has so far been remarkably resilient as the housing market has faltered, lower house prices are likely to weigh down on the consumer over time. In recent years, rising house prices appear to have boosted overall consumer sentiment and made housing equity available for consumer spending. With house prices no longer rising, consumers are likely to become more cautious in their spending habits, contributing to a weakening of the overall economy. As the economy slows, inflationary pressures should moderate over time and allow the Bank of England to make additional interest rate cuts. However, the risk that the current strength of oil and food prices could feed into wages means that the MPC will probably prefer to cut rates at a more gradual pace than homeowners might prefer."

Preliminary Estimate for April
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Euro area inflation is expected to be 3.3% in April 2008, according to Eurostat. This would be a welcome sign for the ECB as it has made clear that inflation is its top and chiefly only concern for monetary policy. The detailed breakdown in the final version of CPI will be released on May 15th.  

For April
Provided by: European Commission

Services Confidence: 7, forecast 9, pr. 9 (Mar), pr. 10 (Feb)
Industrial Confidence: -2, forecast -1, pr. 0 (Mar), 0 (Feb)

Consumer confidence stayed steady in the Euro-zone despite falls in other sectors like services and manufacturing. With the ECB remaining firm in their approach to combating inflation, keeping interest rates at six-year high of 4%, the Euro has continued to appreciate, hurting the competitivenesses of European exports. High inflation, as a result of oil rising 76% in the past year, is also catching up to industry and consumers at the retail level. The overall economy is now expected to rise 1.7% compared to 2.6% last year. Confidence among manufacturers across the euro region declined more than economists forecast to -2 from 0 in March, while services sentiment dropped to 7 from 9.  

For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "After a slight rebound in March, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area decreased again in April. The current level of the indicator still continues to suggest above historical average industrial production growth, but the decline points to a weakening of the monthly growth rates in the second quarter of 2008.

Nearly all the components of the BCI worsened, production expectations being the only exception, which remained unchanged. Industry managers' appraisals of the production trend in recent months and of their total order books deteriorated sharply. Their assessments concerning export order books and stocks of finished products declined more moderately." 

For April
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

The ADP Employment Report reported that nonfarm private employment increased 10K in April, beating expectations of a decline. While jobs in the services industry continue increasing, manufacturing and construction continue declining.

From the Release: "Though April’s estimate for a small increase in employment is above consensus forecasts of an outright decline, it nevertheless suggests that a sharp deceleration of employment continues.

Employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew 64,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 54,000, the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 26,000 in April and marked the twentieth consecutive monthly decline.

Two sectors of the economy hit hardest by recent problems in mortgage markets have been residential construction and financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending. In April, construction employment fell another 28,000. This is the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August 2006 to 288,000. Employment in the financial activities sector advanced just 2,000 for the month."

Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for March
Provided by: Statistics Canada
February's Release: Press Release

IPPI
Canadian producer inflation index accelerated to 1.7%, fueled by surges in prices for petroleum and coal products, as well as for primary metal products (5.9%) . Excluding energy products, the IPPI would have marked 0.8%.

RMPI Raw materials surged 6.6% in March, the highest monthly increases since September of 1990. Mineral fuels were the main contributor to inflation of raw materials.

The inflation reports' impact overwhelmed that of the poor GDP report. This is becoming a deja vu of economic developments as central banks across the world are dealing with the duality of economic growth risk, and inflationary risk.

Wholesaling activities shrank 1.4%, mostly affected by declines in sales of motor vehicles and building supplies. Manufacturers scaled back as well, with valued added falling 0.7% in February. 16 out of 21 major groups decreased, and both durable and non-durable goods both declined. Only the construction industries and the public sector of education health and administration saw growth. More rate cuts may be in order here as contraction was spread out. However, a notable part of the tepid economic pace in February can be contributed to "inclement weather". Also, the Canadian Dollar surged as European trading started, and extended gains across the board despite the poor GDP report. Other releases showed that inflation may be a major deterrent in central bank's moving forward with a rate cut campaign.

From the release:

Economic activity declined 0.2% in February, continuing at a much lower pace than in the first half of 2007. Wholesale trade and manufacturing accounted for most of the decrease.

Other notable declines were recorded in retail trade, oil and gas extraction and exploration as well as in the transportation and financial sectors.

Advances in the tourism and government-related industries and in construction were not enough to offset these declines.

Provided by: The Federal Reserve
Official Release: Statement

Two members dissented against the rate cut, as policy makers strengthened their language against inflation. After a knee-jerk reaction in which the Dollar gained, it was moderately lower against its rivals in the 30 minutes after the release. The Fed painted a rather weak picture of the economy, but that the recent cuts should work to help growth going forward. The statement may not have been as hawkish as some had hoped, as it leaves options open for the Fed in terms of its next move.

From the Release:

""Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters."

"Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months...uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully."