For February
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand

Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.4% r(0.3%)

New Zealand's retail sales fell in February, declining 0.7%. Consumers are feeling the effects of rising food costs and record-high interest rates. The combination has left consumers with less to spend on appliances and cars (vehicle sales fell 5.8% m/m). Gasoline has increased 22% since February 2006, and food is up 5.2% on an annual pace. Consumer confidence is sliding and home price growth is starting to slow, a condition seen in other economies around the world.

For March (seasonally adjusted m/m)
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

PPI Input y/y: 20.6%; forecast: 19.3%; pr. 19.7%

March's annual rate for input prices surged to the highest level since 1986, as UK producers continue to pay higher fuel costs. Annual output prices rose 6.2%, the highest since 1991. Inflation at shops has been manageable, but will present a problem to the BoE, which cut rates by 25bps last week. As costs increase, profit margins will shrink companies will feel the pinch. Passing along the cost increases will make prices volatile and even harder to deal with for the bank.

From the release:

"Month on month, the output prices measure for all manufactured products rose 0.9 per cent in March, mainly reflecting rises in petroleum product prices. If passed on in full, the changes in excise duty on tobacco and alcohol announced in the Budget would have increased the index by 0.3 per cent in March.

Month on month, the input prices measure of UK manufacturers’ materials and fuels rose 2.9 per cent. This mainly reflected a rise in the price of crude oil. In seasonally adjusted terms the index rose 1.8 per cent between February and March."

For February
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Industrial Production y/y: 3.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 3.3% r(3.8%)

Despite the better than expected figures for February, Eurozone's industries are showing some easing. Annual growth has been trending down since the end of last year. February's breakdown shows that production level was boosted by capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy outputs. On the otherhand, durable and non-durable goods production have declined. This suggests that companies show optimism despite a pull back of consumer spending. 

Advance Retail sales for March
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Core Retail Sales: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -0.1% r(-0.2%)

March saw retail sales increase 0.2% on the month, compared to February's upwardly revised -0.4%. The increase caught forecasts by surprise as growth was expected to be flat. However, the increase was mainly due to a rise in receipts at service stations. The figures are not adjusted for inflation, so price increases and not just an increase in volume play a role in the data. Last month gasoline prices were up 6.9% compared to February and so gas essentially accounted for most of the increase in the headline data. That means consumer spending is subdued and today's report does not reflect some hidden consumer strength.

Consumers are facing a myriad of pressing issues, from falling housing prices, higher gas and food bills and a deteriorating job market. These conditions are hurting confidence, the University of Michigan sentiment registered a 26-year low on Friday, and will limit consumer spending going forward.

Business stockpiles grew but business sales waned. As the economy hits the breaks, businesses that are not reducing inventories will be left with unsold stockpiles. 

For March
Provided by: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)

The number of surveyors reporting house prices falls increased to an historical low in March. The news depressed the Pound as falling housing prices are expected to exacerbate the slowdown in the economy. At the same time, consumer inflation was lower than expected, mitigating some of the worry of inflationary pressure from producer prices yesterday. The Pound hit a 6 week low vs the Dollar, and a new all time low vs the Euro. 

From the Release:

"The balance of Chartered Surveyors reporting house prices falls increased to an historical low in March. However, a lack of new supply is still preventing significant price falls despite rising stock levels, says RICS. The RICS house price balance dropped for the eighth month in succession. 78.5% more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices, an increase from 65.7% in February. This figure has exceeded the historical low of June 1990, when 64.5% more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall in house prices and is now the lowest figure since the survey began in 1978."

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Minutes

The RBA minutes acknowledged that inflation will stay high in the short term, but that the current interest rate, at a 12-year high of 7.25% was sufficient to put a "a restraining influence on households and businesses." THe economy was caught in between several crosswinds such as growing real incomes, a slowing global economy, and tighter credit conditions. The bank will be looking towards first-quarter prices on April 23rd, which are expected to increase to an annual pace of 4%. 

The Aussie continued a rally started on Monday following the release, but those gains were given up in European trading as both the US Dollar gained and carry trade retreated favoring the funding currencies over the high-yielders. 

From the Minutes:

"Members noted that the economy continued to be affected by a number of cross-currents. Large increases in real income were likely to flow from further increases in the terms of trade, foreshadowed by recent contract price negotiations for key bulk commodities. On the other hand, the slowing global economy and tighter financial conditions in Australia were likely to reduce expansionary forces on the economy. Members judged that, taking account of the additional rises in funding costs that banks had passed on to borrowers, the current stance of monetary policy was exerting a significant restraining influence on both households and businesses. Further, there had been some tightening in credit standards for more risky borrowers.

These developments were working to foster the moderation in demand growth that was needed to ease the pressure on inflation. Provided this moderation continued, members expected inflation to decline over time, though they recognised that there were significant risks in both directions. Members also noted that in the short term inflation was likely to remain relatively high, with both the CPI and underlying measures expected to rise further in year-ended terms in the March quarter."

For March
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Core CPI y/y: 1.2%, forecast 1.3%, pr. 1.2%
CPI m/m: 0.4%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 0.7% 

Today's inflation data mitigated the effects of higher producer prices seen yesterday. Though a welcome sign for the central bank as it gives policy makers extra leeway to cut rates, the prospects of more interest rate cuts will weaken the value of the Pound. Following the consumer inflation report, and news of a new all time low in the RICS housing prices report, the Pound hit a new all time low vs the Euro, and reached a six-week low vs the Dollar.

Annual inflation matched February's figure which was still a 9 month high, while the monthly rate came down to 0.4%. In a similar predicament as in the US, UK inflation expectations have declined on speculation slowing growth will probably ease price pressures.

From the Release:

"CPI annual inflation – the Government’s target measure – was 2.5 per cent in March, unchanged from February.

The largest downward contribution to change in the CPI annual rate came from furniture, household equipment and maintenance where the price of furniture and furnishings rose by less than a year ago. A further large downward contribution came from recreation and culture, principally from games, toys and hobbies where the prices of computer games and pre-school activity toys in particular fell this year but rose a year ago.

The largest upward contribution to change in the CPI annual rate came from transport costs. This was principally due to passenger air travel on European and, to a lesser extent, long-haul routes with fares rising this year compared with falls a year ago. There was also a large upward contribution from housing and household services due to changes in the price of heating oil and gas."

For April
Provided by: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Official Release: Press Release

As mentioned in the press release, the surprising March figure seems to be an aberration, as the ZEW index showed a souring mood for April. The index fell back near the territory seen 3 months ago in January, when the index slipped to -41.6. April sees the index down to -40.7, with most of the decline attributed to expectations and not the current economic situation.

The Euro did not fall steeply vs. the Dollar following the release but it did halt a small Euro rally seen during the European session. Prior to the NY data dump, the pair was trading nears its open for the session.

From the Release:

"Economic expectations were affected by the extraordinary high price pressure in Germany this month. High rates of inflation reduce the available income of consumers and, hence, weaken private consumption. Low numbers of incoming orders of German companies point to slower growth in Germany as well.

"The slight optimism of the financial market experts last month seems to be only a temporary phenomenon. New record highs of the euro and the oil price have reduced expectations again. However, at the moment there is no reason for exaggerated pessimism. A growth rate for Germany of 1.7 percent this year is still realistic", said ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz.

The assessment of the current economic situation in Germany improved slightly in April. The corresponding indicator increased by 1.1 points to 33.2 points."

For April
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The better than expected report helped to boost the Dollar in early NY trading. 

From the Release:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York stabilized in April after deteriorating in February and March. The general business conditions index rose sharply, to 0.6. The new orders and shipments indexes also moved into positive territory, the latter climbing 23 points. The prices paid index advanced to its highest level since late 2005, and the prices received index rose modestly. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally weaker than in March, and the capital expenditures index, while positive, fell to its lowest level since 2003. "

For April
Provided by: National Association of Home Builders
Official Release: Press Release 

From the Release:

Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes remained unchanged for a third consecutive month in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI held at 20, up marginally from the record low of 18 set in December of 2007 (the series began in January of 1985).

Final Release for March
News Release from Federal Statistics Office

CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 3.1%

Final Version for March
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Core CPI y/y: 2.0%, forecast 1.9%, pr. 1.8%

The Euro had been gaining vs. the Dollar prior to the inflation report, but surged when consumer prices came in higher than expected. The pair climbed to 1.5967, setting a new record. The data reinforced the ECB resistance to cut rates even as signs point to a slowdown in the economy. The annual pace of 3.6% was the highest in 16 years. As can be expected, prices were stoked by rising food and energy costs. Food prices rose 6.2%, after climbing 5.8% in February. Energy prices were up 11.2%, the highest since May 2006.

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Impact: High

CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.0% (Feb)
CPI y/y: 4.0%, forecast 4.0%, pr. 4.0%
CPI ex Food & Energy y/y: 2.4%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.3%

Unrounded, consumer prices increased 0.343%, with core increasing 0.152%. The data was in line with expectations. Energy prices jumped 1.9% from February, and are up 17% from a year ago. Gas increased 1.3%, and electricity rose 0.8%. Food was up 0.2% on the month and 4.5% on the year. Core annual inflation notched up to 2.4%, continuing to be above the Fed's presumed target rate of 1.5% to 2%.

Annualized figure for March
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: -5.8%

Building permits declined 5.8% to an annualized pace of 927,000, the lowest since April 1991. In the last 12 months, permits are down 40.9%, the largest 12-month drop in sixteen years. As a leading indicator for future construction, the data points to the the housing recession continuing throughout 2008.

For March
Provided by: Federal Reserve

Industrial production recovered in March rising 0.3%, reversing some of February's losses. The data beat forecasts, and helped the Dollar come off its all time high, set after the US's earlier releases. The unexpected rise was led by an increase in output of electric and natural gas utilities. The capacity utilization rate, a measure of the proportion of factories in use, increased to 80.5%.

From the Release:

"Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in March after having dropped 0.7 percent in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output declined at an annual rate of 0.1 percent after edging up at a rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Manufacturing production rose 0.1 percent in March. Factory output was held down by a large decline in the output of motor vehicles and parts; a shortage of motor vehicle parts that resulted from a strike at a parts manufacturer idled a number of motor vehicle assembly plants. Outside of motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production moved up 0.4 percent after having fallen 0.5 percent in February. In March, the output of mines increased 0.9 percent, and the output of utilities advanced 1.9 percent. At 112.1 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry in March rose 0.2 percentage point, to 80.5 percent."

Provided by: Energy Information Administration

Oil prices hit a new record today at $114.5 per barrel. The Canadian Dollar surged this session vs the US Dollar, and had gained 150 pips from its early overnight levels. The pair was fast approaching the parity level.