For February
Provided by (Latest Release): Australian Bureau of Statistics
Impact: High

Imports m/m: -0.2%, pr. 5.4% (Jan), 0.4% (Dec)
Exports m/m: -4.1%, pr. 1.7% (Jan), pr. 1.8% (Dec)

Pre-Release: January saw a surge in imports as the Aussie Dollar's value made imports cheaper. Expectations for February are for another deficit number close to January's -2.7B.

Post-Release: The trade balance fell into further deficit in February. Exports declined by 4.1% and imports were relatively steady falling only 0.2%. The new difference between exports and imports was A$3.3 billion, a A$600 million larger deficit than the previous month.

Seasonally adjusted rate for February.
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office

Unemployment Rate n.s.a.: 2.6%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.7%
Joblessness fell by about 4,700 in February. 

For April
Provided by: Sentix

A survey the measures investor's confidence surpised forecasts and increased to 4.1. Investor expectations over the next six months improved to -16 from -19.25 in March. Following the news, the EUR.USD pair saw a boost.

Construction intentions in Canada cooled for a fourth consecutive month in February, on the heels of a sharp decline in the value of building permits for non-residential construction in Ontario.

Municipalities issued $5.8 billion worth of building permits, down 1.0% from January. Intentions peaked in May and June 2007 at $7.0 billion.

February's decline resulted from much lower non-residential construction intentions in Ontario. If the province were excluded, the total value of building permits nationally would have increased 9.8%, instead of declining 1.0%.

The Canadian housing market have been on a downward slope since mid-year last year and is an example of the US housing woes's contagion.

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)
Importance: Medium to High


Business confidence in New Zealand as measured by the NZIER fell to a 34-year low as conditions across all sectors and regions deteriorated. 

If the seasonal adjustment is excluded, the balance of firms in the March survey expecting the general business situation to deteriorate in the next six months is 64%. This compares with a net 26% of firms that expected the general business situation to deteriorate in the December survey. - NZIER

Manufacturing expectations have become more pessimistic. Outlook on building construction for the coming months also became more negative. Alarmingly, 0% of the firms surveyed expressed employment intentions, the previous surveyed showed 14%. Pricing intentions will also be a problem for the Reserve Bank.

For March
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland
Official Release: PDF

House Prices y/y: 1.1%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 4.2%
Avg. Price (s.a.): £191,556

The Pound plunged overnight as the monthly change for the index recorded the biggest drop since 1992. Banks, cautious due to higher credit conditions, are reluctant to lend as many mortgages. The news, coming on the heels of the Bank of England interest rate announcement Thursday morning, guaranteed at least a 25 basis point cut, though the markets overnight may have been pricing in further rate cuts after this week, as the situation in housing may have to be remedied by bringing the base rate lower as the year progresses.

From the Release:

"House prices fell by 2.5% in March. Prices in Quarter 1 were 1.0% lower than in 2007 Quarter 4. House prices in March were 1.1% higher than a year earlier.

Overall, we expect there to be a modest (low single digit) decline in UK house prices this year. Any declines, however, should be viewed in the context of the significant price rises over recent years. UK prices have increased by 171% over the past ten years and by 51% over the last five years. The average UK price has risen by £120,860 during the past decade from £70,696 to £191,556.

Sound economic fundamentals are supporting house prices. A strong labour market, low interest rates and a shortage of new houses underpin housing valuations. Employment is at a record high and unemployment continues to fall. Employment stands at 29.5 million and has risen by 370,000 over the past year. Unemployment is below 800,000 and has fallen by over 125,000 in the last year. We expect there to be a modest rise in unemployment later in the year, but the scale of the increase is unlikely to cause widespread difficulties for households."

Seasonally adjusted annual rate for February
Provided by: National Association of Realtors

The number of pending home sales, contracts to buy previously owned homes, declined 1.9% in February. Its an indication that the housing market recession continues, and the bottom is not here yet. The likely outcome is that housing prices continue to fall in the US and the Fed will remain pressured to continue its campaign of lowering interest rates.

For March
Provided by: Nationwide
Official Release: PDF

Consumer confidence slipped again in March, though it beat expectations of an even further drop. It put the index at its lowest level in 4 years. With the Pound's steep declines happening earlier in the session, the Pound did not fall further following the release. A summary of the findings from the Nationwide report are below.

From the Release:

"The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index ticked down one point to 77 in March. This modest drop continues the trend of monthly falls in consumer confidence, which started in the autumn, and reflects weakening house price growth and ongoing uncertaintyin the financial markets.

Consumers’ feelings about the current situation worsened slightly in March. The Present Situation Index (consumer sentiment about the current economic and employment situation) fell by two points to 74, from 76, due to a slight downward shift in consumers’ perceptions of the current employment situation. Consumers’ feelings about the present situation are much weaker than this time last year, when the index stood at 87, but two thirds of consumers still think the current economic situation is good or normal."

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide’s chief economist, says, “The downturn in consumer confidence over the last six months is not surprising given developments in the financial markets and a weakening housing market. The effect of recent interest rate cuts has yet to trickle through to people’s pockets, particularly as food and energy costs are still high. Consumers may begin to feel more comfortable following the expected cut to rates this week, but it is unlikely that confidence levels will increase in the short term.”

Release from Bank of Japan

It was a unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy to leave rates at 0.50%. Its the 16th straight meeting that rates have been held at this rate. The Bank members will continue to assess how much the US economy, one of Japan's key trading partners, will slow down and what effects that will have on the global economy.

The news was greeted with little action in the markets, as its outcome was widely expected.

Earlier today, both houses of parliament approved the nomination of deputy governor Shirakawa as the new Bank of Japan governor, which has been left vacant since March 19 when former chief Toshihiko Fukui stepped down after his five-year term ended.

Exports have continued to increase. Corporate profits have been leveling off, albeit at a high level, and business sentiment has recently become cautious. Under these circumstances, the pace of increase in business fixed investment has become slower. Private consumption has been firm in a situation where household income has continued rising moderately. Meanwhile, public investment has been sluggish. Housing investment has remained at a low level, although there have been signs of recovery. With these developments in demand both at home and abroad, production has been more or less flat lately, partly in reaction to the relatively large increase in the second half of last year. Japan's economy is expected to grow at a slower pace for the time being and follow a moderate growth path thereafter.

Exports have been a lift to the economy, but rising level of energy and commodity prices and even core prices are hurting business confidence and thus corporate investment. Levels of production has been more or less flat, but as we can see today, Machinery Orders rebounded. Finance activies do not reflect credit tightening conditions many economies such as the US's are facing.

For Feb.
Release from Office of National Statistics (ONS)

Ind. Production y/y: 1.3%, forecast 1.2%, pr. -0.1% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec)

Industrial production rebounded in February, beating forecasts, as it climbed by 0.3%. Industrial production makes up around 1/5th of UK GDP, and the months gains more than reversed last month's 0.1% decline.  

From the Release:

"Total production output increased by 0.3 per cent between January and February. Mining and quarrying output decreased by 1.2 per cent and energy supply output increased by 0.7 per cent. Within the mining and quarrying sector there were decreases in both oil and gas extraction output. Within the energy supply sector there was an increase in output of 2.5 per cent in the gas supply industry."

Revised release for 4rd Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

GDP y/y: 2.2%, forecast 2.2%, prel. 2.2%

European economic growth cooled in the last three months of 2007. With the ECB's reluctant to move to lower rates, credit conditions remain tight limiting economic activity. Also, the Euro's recent climb is cutting into export growth. The 3rd quarter saw growth of 0.7%. Consumer spending fell for the first time in 6 years, declining 0.1%. It had increased 0.5% in the 3rd quarter. Exports slowed to an increase of 0.6% from the 3rd quarter's 2% increase. Government spending also slipped by 0.1%. 

Whereas the US and UK showed early signs of slowdown, the Euro-zone economies have seen a growth in the region's service and manufacturing industries slow, while consumer and executive confidence fell last month to the lowest in more than 2 years.

Provided by: Energy Information Administration

Oil prices were up more than $2 by 11AM today as prices reached $110.70 per barrel.

From the Release: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 316.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range."

For February, Seasonally adjusted
Provided by: Ministry of Finance

Unadjusted Trade Balance: ¥2467.7B, forecast ¥2465.0B, pr ¥1235.8B

Japan's unadjusted trade balance increased 2.9% to 2.468 trillion yen ($24.2 billion) in February. Higher portfolio income offset a drop in the trade surplus. The figures were in line with expectations. The trade surplus fell 6.6% to 1.03 trillion yen, as exports climbed 9% and imports rose 12.5%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the current account surplus undershot forecasts, and shrank to 1.46 trillion yen compared to January's 2.07 trillion.

March - Seasonally Adjusted
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

The Australian economy created close to 15K jobs in March. March's employment change was smaller than in February, though it beat expectations of a 10K increase. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.

Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: News Release

As expected the Bank of England lowered rates, the third cut since December as higher credit costs and the worst housing slump in 16 years threatened to push the economy into a recession. The policy members acknowledge that they have to balance high inflation, which is pushing a nine-month high with expectations of a prolonged contraction.

From the Release:

"In the Committee’s judgement, the balance of these risks to the inflation outlook in the medium term justifies a cut in Bank Rate this month. Credit conditions have tightened and the availability of credit appears to be worsening. While the recent depreciation in sterling will support net exports, the prospects for output growth abroad have deteriorated. In the United Kingdom, business surveys suggest that growth has begun to moderate and that a margin of spare capacity will emerge during this year. This should help to keep domestic inflationary pressures in check in the medium term.

Against that background, the Committee judged that a reduction in Bank Rate of 0.25 percentage points to 5.0% was necessary to meet the 2% target for CPI inflation in the medium term."