For 1st Quarter

BSI Large All Industry (1Q): -9.3%, pr 0.5% 

Provided by: Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve will auction $50 billion in 28-day credit through the Term Auction Facility (TAF). It is one of the steps the bank has taken to address concerns about liquidity in the credit crisis.

For February
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: UBS

"The UBS Consumption Indicator surged noticeably in February after having declined slightly over the past three months. At 2.32 the indicator is at its highest level in eight months, and keeps running significantly above its long-term average, pointing to robust growth in Swiss private consumption." 

Monthly Rate for January
Official Release: Statistics Canada

Retail Sales ex. Autos: 1.3%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -0.3%

"Retailers began 2008 on a strong note, as sales increased 1.5% in January to an estimated $35.8 billion. This was the third consecutive month of strong gains in retail sales. Following moderate sales in mid-2007, retail sales have returned to the rapid growth that began in 2004."

Canadian Retail Sales saw a strong 1.5% increase, the best figure in 8 months. Spending was aided by a one-point cut in the federal sales tax. The increase in spending was widespread, with core retails sales posting a much better-than-expected measure. The Canadian Dollar had been gaining on the greenback overnight and during yesterday's session, reaching a low at 1.0125. The Retail Sales data coincided with a move up in the US Dollar as NY Trading got underway.   

Yearly Change from Jan '06 to Jan '07 for 20-City Composite
Provided by: Standard & Poor's

The annual pace of the index has shown a progressive slide the last 4 months, falling 4.9% in Sept, 6.1% in Oct, 7.7% in Nov and most recently 9.1% for Dec. The consensus of economists has prices falling by double digits for the January period. The release did not suprise forecasts, and the 20-City composite saw values fall 10.7% compared to the same time last year. Lower prices can stimulate home purchases, but it will have a hobbling effect on consumer spending as sellers get smaller offering prices. Existing home sales yesterday showed what might be a bottom in its data though its too early to tell anything at this point.

"Both of the composite indices are now reporting annual declines in excess of 10%. The 10-City Composite set yet another new record, with an annual decline of 11.4%. The 20-City Composite recorded an annual decline of 10.7%.“Unfortunately it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

“Home prices continue to fall, decelerate and reach record lows across the nation.No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines in January and the remaining – Charlotte North Carolina – eking out a benign 1.8% growth rate. Looking deeper into the data, you can see that 16 of the metro areas are also reporting record low annual growth rates. The monthly data show that every one of the MSAs has now declined every month since September 2007, marking five consecutive months. On top of that, the declines have increased through time, in general, as 13 of the 20 MSAs reported their single largest monthly decline in January.”

Las Vegas and Miami share the dubious title of the weakest markets in January, reporting double-digit annual declines of 19.3%, followed by Phoenix at -18.2%."

For February - Seasonally Adjusted
Provided by: Ministry of Finance

Total Merchandise Trade Balance: ¥970.0B, forecast ¥1155.4B, pr. -¥87.3B (rev. from ¥79.3B)

Exports grew 8.7% on the year. Weak demand from the US has been filled by demand from emerging economies such as China and India. Imports increased 10.1%. The strength of Japanese exports, as well as Australian and New Zealand exports have been helping these regions to somewhat to shield from the slowdown that is affecting European economies.

For March
Provided by: IFO Institute of Economic Research

IFO Business Expectations Index: 98.4, forecast 97.8, pr 98.2 

The IFO Business Climate in Germany saw improvement the last two month, after sliding for most of late 2007. It has managed to beat expectations the last 4 months, and forecasts call for a decline this month. The German economy has been weathering the recent global slowdown better than its other euro-zone counterparts. Business Conditions continued to impress in March, as it recorded an increase, posting a 104.8 reading. 

Euro Gains More than 135 Pips on Better than Expected Data

The EUR/USD climbed almost 150 pips in the 2 hours following the release of the IFO data. From a low near 1.56 the pair climbed to set a high near 1.5750, but then retreated. About 90 pips of the rally came in the first 15 minutes after 5 AM EST. Prior to the release, the pair had been consolidating around the 1.56 level.

For January (s.a.)
Provided by European Central Bank

Current Account (n.s.a.): -€19.1B, pr. €4.3B (rev. up from €1.9B)

Provided by: Bank of England

Governor Mervyn King, and the Monetary Policy Committee members, will testify before Parliament's Treasury Committee. Also known as the "Treasury Committee Hearings."

Mervyn King answered against criticism of working slowly by explaining that he is deploying a more long-term solution then simply lowering rates. He noted that the bank will extend funding as a bridge to that longer-term solution. According to Kiung, the Bank of England is likely to take its time on rate reduction campaigns as it needs to watch and monitor the uncertain financial environment.

For February
Provided by: US Census Bureau

Durable Orders ex. Transportation: -2.6%, forecast -0.3%, pr. -1.6% (Jan), 2.6% (Dec), -0.7% (Nov)

New Orders for Durable Goods retreated 5.3% in January wiping away December's 5.2% gain. Orders are expected to rebound in February, with the consensus forecast at 0.8%, though "core" orders, which strip out transportation is forecast to post its 3rd negative result in 4 months.

The results undershot expectations falling 1.7%, led by a slump in orders for machinery. That is an importnat sign that firms are scaling back their investment as the economy moves twoards a recession. Durable Orders, not including transportation equipment fell 2.6%, also suprising on the downside. 

For February
Provided by: US Census Bureau

New Home Sales m/m: -1.8%, forecast -1.7%, pr. -2.8% (Jan), -4.7% (Dec), -12.6% (Nov-R)

New home sales have been in a free fall the last 10 months, falling from a pace of almost a million in April to 588K in January. Expectations were for a 1.7% decline in January. Since January's total was revised up to 601K, February's 590K was still technically a fall for the month. However the total beat expectations of rate of 578K for the month.

The news though better than expected did little to change the Dollar's decline vs the Euro and Pound, and a fall in US stock markets as a result of earlier poor news in the form of negative Durable Goods Orders.

For February
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
January's Release: PDF

Exports: 3.71B, pr. $3.1B (Jan), $3.08B (Dec)
Imports: 3.45B, $3.4B (Jan). $3.64B (Dec)

From Statistics Newzealand:

Merchandise exports were up 30.3 percent ($864 million), the largest percentage rise for any month since January 2001 and the largest value increase ever. 

For Jan
Provided by: The Conference Board
Official Release: Press Release

Pre-Release:
After humming along with 4 months of 0.5% or above growth (Aug, Sept, Oct and Nov) the leading index slowed to 0.2%. The Australian economy is facing higher interest rates perhaps slowing growth, and a global slowdown may see a reduction in the demand for Australia's commodity goods. The leading index lags other indicators and is looking at January, a time that saw a more direct downturn in the US economy.

Post Release:
The Conference Board leading index turned negative in January, posting a -0.3% decline. Its the first decline after 5 months of gains. "Negative contributions from share prices, the yield spread and building approvals more than offset positive contributions from money supply, gross operating surplus and rural goods exports."

For March
Provided by: GfK Group
Official Release: News Release

Pre-Release:
The last 3 months (Jan, Feb, Mar) have seen consumer confidence holding steady at 4.5 after the indicator recovered from falling to 4.3 in December. Forecast are for a small decline in April's reading compared to the pace set in the 1st quarter. Germany has been relatively strong out of the euro-zone economies and hopefully consumer sentiment will remain stable.

Post Release:
The indicator surprised on the upside, increasing to 4.6. The recent trend has seen Germany's fundamental data outpacing expectations. Consumes were placated by favorable results in recent collective wage agreements. The propensity to buy increased, though worries over uncertainty in financial markets limited any gains in the economic expectations sub-gauge.

The EUR/USD had been trending down prior to the release, after the pair set a high yesterday at 1.5850. The release didn't have a major impact and the pair began consolidating in the several hours following it.

From the Release:

"The mood among German consumers has slightly improved in March. While the economic outlook indicator increased only modestly, income expectations and the propensity to buy climbed significantly. As a result, the consumer climate indicator for April has a value of 4.6 points after 4.5 points in March. However, this tentative recovery cannot obscure the fact that achieving the prior consumption forecast of 1.5% will be difficult in the face of continued high rates of inflation.

Nevertheless, the positive trend in the labor market coupled with considerable increases in collective wage agreements boosted income expectations and the propensity to buy in March. The ongoing mortgage crisis and the risk of a recession in the USA are likely to be the main reasons for the economic expectations indicator lagging slightly behind the other two indicators, with a modest increase only."

Revised Version for 4th Quarter.
Provided by: Office for National Statistics

Business Investment y/y: 5.3% (rev. from 1.7% estimate) 

Business Investment rose 1.8% in the 4th quarter of 2007, a sharp revision for the previously given estimate of -0.5%. This release may have an effect on GDP values we will see from the UK on Friday. The better than expected spending on business investment may imply that the UK economy may face only a modest slowdown as a result of higher prices for credit. The bank of England will be ready to cut rates in order to stimulate growth. Manufacturing investment rose by 3.2% from the 3rd quarter, while service providers increased spending by 2.1%. 

From the Release:

"Business investment for the fourth quarter of 2007 is estimated to be 5.3 per cent higher than the same period of last year, and 1.8 per cent higher than the previous quarter.

The quarterly rise in business investment is largely due to increased capital spending by industries classified as private sector non-manufacturing. Within this, there was increased investment within distribution (up 5.2 per cent), and other services (up 1.6 per cent) but reduced investment within construction (down 4.2 per cent) and other production (down 1.7 per cent."

For March
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Pre-Release:
The CBI Distributive Trades Realized index, a measure activity in the retail sector,  turned negative at -3 in February. The indicator had been hovering in single digits in Jan and Dec, and was expected to fall even further this month.

Post Release:
The index surprised on the upside, and crawled back into positive territory, though barely.

From the Release:

"Retail activity remained subdued in March with high street stores reporting flat year-on-year sales, the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows today (Thursday). About a third (36%) of retailers told the business organisation their sales volumes in the first half of the month were higher than a year earlier while 35% said they were lower. The resulting balance of +1 was marginally better than retailers' expectations (-2), which followed February's figure of -3, the first negative balance since November 2006.

The three-month moving average, which smooths out blips and monthly volatility, continued its gradual fall from its peak of +36 last May to +1 this month. Unsurprisingly given this slowdown, retailers described sales for the time of year as poor (29% compared to 15% saying they were good, a balance of -14). "

Provided by: Federal Reserve 

The Federal Reserve will auction $50 billion in 28-day credit through the Term Auction Facility (TAF). It is one of the steps the bank has taken to address concerns about liquidity in the credit crisis.

Tokyo CPI for March
Provided by: Statistics Bureau

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food y/y: 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, pr. 0.4% (Feb)
Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy y/y: 0.1%, forecast 0.0%, pr. -0.1% (Feb)

Tokyo's March Consumer Prices rose 0.6% on the year, beating expectations. Core Prices also surprised on the upside. Gains were led by increases in energy and commodities. The Tokyo indicator acts as a leading index for the rest of the country, which saw its February CPI increase a full 1% on the year. Inflation is creeping up just as consumers are spending less, and the job market begins to slacken as a result of condition in the global marketplace.

For February (s.a.)
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
January's Release: Summary and Figures

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Feb): 0.97, forecast 0.98, pr. 0.98

The Unemployment rate increased in Japan, notching up to 3.9%, missing forecasts of a stable 3.8%. With the global economy on shaky footing recently, a deterioration in the job market may cause consumers to spend less. This has borne out already in Household Spending y/y last month, which was flat missing estimates of a 2.5% rise.