For January

Offical Release from: The British Bankers' Association (BBA)

Remortgaging was strong in January pushing up total mortgage approvals. However, unsecured lending remained low. BBA statistics director, David Dooks comments:

"Although house prices and new loans for house purchase, appear to be subdued as the housing market slows, the strength of remortgaging would suggest competition for mortgage business and switching remains high."

m/m -1.1% prev. 0.1%

Inflation felt by firms lessened in January, bringing the yearly inflation down to 0.8% from 1.5% in December. The monthly decline was attributed to a flux in prices in Ocean Freight Transportation and Ship Chartering Services, both of which surged in December and eased off in January.

Revised version for 4th Quarter (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office

For February
Provided by: IFO Institute of Economic Research

The Euro was boosted by news that German firms saw current conditions improving for a second straight month. The Business Climate Index beat expectations for a slight decline. The news is a welcome sign for the European Central Bank, as it tries to balance higher inflation, while simultaneously avoiding a slowdown in the economy. The Governing Council would rather hold rates steady at this point to curb inflationary pressure. The IFO data helps that cause. In the several hours following the release, the EUR/USD climbed 100 pips and was approaching resistance near 1.49.

"The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany has risen slightly in February. The companies have assessed their current situation even more positively than in January. The outlook for the coming six months has worsened somewhat, however. On the whole, the economic situation of German industry and trade is robust, but the expectations continue to point to a cyclical weakening."

Provisional estimate for 4th Quarter.
Office for National Statistics 

"Business investment for the fourth quarter of 2007 is estimated to be 1.7 per cent higher than the same period of last year, and 0.5 per cent lower than the previous quarter.

The quarterly fall in business investment is due to reduced capital spending by industries classified within private sector non-manufacturing. There was reduced investment in industries within construction (down 10.4 per cent), other production (down 4.5 per cent), and distribution services (down 0.9 per cent). This was partly offset by an increase within other services (up 0.3 per cent)."

For January
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

PPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.4%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2%
PPI y/y: 7.4%, forecast 7.3%, pr. 6.3%
PPI ex. Food & Energy y/y: 2.3%, forecast 2.2%, pr. 2.0%

Inflation to US producers climbed by 1% in January, double the expectations of economists. The rise was driven by higher fuel, food, and drug costs. Core PPI, which excluded food and energy, was up 0.4%, double December's rate. It's the highest core increase in over a year. With the Fed recently aggressively cutting interest rates, inflationary pressures are building and present a second headache for the FOMC, which is chiefly concerned with slowing growth. A combination of higher inflation and slower growth is troubling for a nation's currency, and following the news the Dollar extended its losses from overnight vs. the Euro and Pound.

"The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.0 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a decline of 0.3 percent in December and a 2.6-percent advance in November. At the earlier stages of processing, prices for intermediate goods moved up 1.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in the prior month, and the crude goods index increased 2.5 percent following a 1.1-percent advance in December."

Yearly Change from Dec '06 to Dec '07 for 20-City Composite
Provided by: Standard & Poor's

Prices for homes in the nations 20 metropolitan cities continues to decline, with December's yearly change amounting to a 9.1% decline. The news continues to paint a gloomy outlook for the housing market, though lower prices may stimulate buying. With the overall economy slowing as well, it may take a while before potential buyers feel confident enough to take on home purchases. Tomorrow, the US will reveal its New Home Sales data, which will shed more light on the housing situation. 

"“We reached a somber year-end for the housing market in 2007,” says Robert J. Shiller, Professor at Yale University and Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Home prices across the nation and in most metro areas are significantly lower than where they were a year ago. Wherever you look things look bleak, with 17 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines and the remaining three reporting flat or moderate growth rates. Looking closely at these negative returns, you will see that 14 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows and eight are in double digit decline. The monthly data paint a similar picture, with all metro areas now reporting at least four consecutive negative monthly returns.”

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
Official Source: PDF

This release adds to two other indicators this week (Existing Home Sales and S&P National Home Price Index) that show housing prices in the US continuing to decline. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the 4th quarter saw prices decrease by 1.3%. Though lower prices can stimulate housing purchases, it detracts from consumer spending, as sellers are making less profit in their transaction, and therefore have less to spend afterwards. The Dollar was down today prior to the release, and was not helped by this report, or the contemporaneous release of Consumer Confidence, which dipped to a five-year low.

"U.S. home prices fell in the fourth quarter of 2007 according to OFHEO’s seasonally-adjusted purchase-only house price index. The index, which is based on data from home sales, was 1.3 percent lower on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter of 2007. This decline was substantially greater than the 0.3 percent price decline between the second and third quarters. Over the past year, prices fell 0.3 percent, as the fourth quarter decline erased earlier price gains."

For February
Release from National Bank of New Zealand

"The New Zealand economy is not infallible. A net 44 percent of businesses expect business conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. This level of pessimism is higher than the net 25 percent reported in December last year, and represents a 10-month low. The service, retail and agriculture industries dominated the fall in sentiment, while the pulse in construction ebbed a tad higher."

For March
Provided by: GfK Group

Consumer confidence in Germany remained steady during February and pointed to confidence remaining stable during March. The news combined with yesterday's business confidence to paint a picture in which the largest economy in the euro-zone is weathering the slowdown in the US. In the couple of hours following the release, the EUR/USD set a new session high, a new record, near 1.5089.

"On the whole, the sentiment among German consumers was stable in February. The income expectations indicator rose slightly on the back of wage rises anticipated to be quite significant, while the propensity to buy and economic expectations indicators recorded renewed falls. The overall consumer climate indicator is forecasting a value of 4.5 points for March, unchanged on the first two months of the year.

At the start of this year, consumers are still finding it difficult to identify a clear direction for general economic trends and their personal financial situation. The repercussions of the mortgage crisis in the USA are just as evident as the uncertainty prompted by unstable developments in the US economy, the current high rate of inflation and volatility in the stock markets. Nevertheless, consumers are still receiving positive signals. Development in Germany’s labor market seems stable, the prospects for generous collective wage agreement settlements are good and the German economy continues to enjoy an upswing."

For January (seasonally adjusted)

M3 s.a. (3 month average): 11.8%, forecast 11.8%, pr. 12.1% 

Through December
Release from the Office of National Statistics

"Services output rose by 0.6 per cent in the quarter to December compared with the quarter to September. This was driven by increases in business services and finance, transport storage and communication and government and other services."

Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services
Provided by: Federal Reserve

Bernanke said that Fed officials will need to assess whether the policy actions taken thus far are having their intended effects, though the FOMC is ready to act in a timely manner as needed. The testimonty leaves the door open for further cuts if necessary, but also suggests the Fed would like to pause and assess the impact of the recent cuts - as they work with an inherent lag.

"A critical task for the Federal Reserve over the course of this year will be to assess whether the stance of monetary policy is properly calibrated to foster our mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability in an environment of downside risks to growth, stressed financial conditions, and inflation pressures.  In particular, the FOMC will need to judge whether the policy actions taken thus far are having their intended effects.  Monetary policy works with a lag.  Therefore, our policy stance must be determined in light of the medium-term forecast for real activity and inflation as well as the risks to that forecast.  Although the FOMC participants' economic projections envision an improving economic picture, it is important to recognize that downside risks to growth remain.  The FOMC will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks."

Australia's leading index rose for the 5th straight month in December, as 4 of the 7 components showed increases. Rurual goods exports and real money supply led the way, while share prices, building approvals, and yield spread declines.

3 of the 4 components of the Coincident indicators scored improvement, including employment, household income, and retail trade. Industrial production declined in December.

Australia's economic indicators have made a rebound after easing slightly in the first half of 2007. The AUD has been one of the top performing currencies so far in 2008, driven up further by sugring commodity and oil prices.

For January
Provided by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry - Titled "Preliminary report on the Current Survey of Commerce"

Large Retailer's Sales y/y: -1.9%, forecast -1.4%, pr. -1.5%

Retail Sales increased 1.5% compared to a year earlier, the sixth month of increases. Sales were primarily driven by a 5.9% increase at fuel retailers. Large retailers continued showing weakness, declining for a second straight month, and for the 4th time in 5 months.

For 4th Quarter (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Capital Expenditure recovered in the 4th quarter, posting a 5.1% increase compared to the 3rd quarter 6.5% decline. On a seasonally adjusted basis building and structures increased 5.1%, while equipment, plant and machinery saw a 3.8% climb in investment.

Australia's economy is one of the few that seem to be standing strong despite the US slowdown.

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Swiss Statistics

Employment saw a 2.7% increase for the 4th quarter compared to last year. As the data from Swiss Statistics shows all sectors experienced positive growth. 

Preliminary Annualized versions for 4th Quarter.
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Personal Consumption (4Q P): 1.9%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.0%
Core PCE (4Q P): 2.7%, forecast 2.7%, pr. 2.7%

There was no change between the advance release of 4th quarter GDP and today's preliminary advance. The 4th quarter's annual rate of 0.6% is quite weak compared to the 3rd quarter's 4.9% annualized rate. Exports were revised higher to 4.8%, compared to an initial 3.9% increase in the advance figures. Imports declined by 1.9%.

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential structures, state and local government spending, and equipment and software that were largely offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in PCE, and in federal government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in imports."

For Week Ending February 23rd
Official Release from The Department of Labor

Continuing Claims (Feb 16): 2.807M, forecast 2.773M, pr. 2.784M

"In the week ending Feb. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 373,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 354,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,500, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 361,750."

Initial jobless claims hit the 370K level for the second time this year, surprising forecasts. Total benefit rolls hit the highest level since October 2005. The job market has been feeling the effects as the economy teeters near recession. A weakening labor market will cut into consumer spending, which will only exasperates the troubles for economic growth.  

For February

Leaked Early, Orginally scheduled for release on February 29th, 5:30AM EST