For February
Provided by Rightmove

Rightmove HPI y/y: 5.8%, pr. 3.4% (Jan), pr. 4.8% (Dec)

"Optimism remains robust amongst the fewer sellers who came to the market over the last month. The lowest February level of new listings since 2005 saw average asking prices jump by 3.2%, (£7,426). It is traditional for asking prices to be driven upwards at this time of year, with fresh sellers tempted to test the market at a higher price as they have fewer timescale pressures with the year ahead of them. This seasonal factor has been exacerbated this year with estate agents competing for only 132,000 properties, compared to 144,000 in February 2007 and 155,000 in February 2006."

Adjusted Annual rate for December
From the Swiss Federal Statistics Office

The Swiss Franc fell around 70-90 pips in the 3-4 hours following the release:
 

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

(2/18) AUD/USD: Prior to the meeting, the Aussie had been in a 160 pip uptrend during the last 3 sessions:

(2/19) AUD/USD: Following the meeting minutes, the Aussie continued climbing, breaching .9230. The Minutes revelaed that policymakers had though of raising rates by 50 basis points compared to 25 basis points, in order to dent inflation:

Fom the Release:

"While noting the uncertainties surrounding forecasts, members judged that, on the basis of currently available information, the main risk was that demand would still prove to be too strong to allow a decline in inflation over a reasonable time period. Indicators of inflation expectations were also tending to rise, which could increase the cost of reducing inflation over time. They therefore concluded that the outlook for inflation required an immediate response from monetary policy. The debate focused on whether the change in the cash rate should be 25 or 50 basis points.

The discussion noted that a good case could be made for the larger move, on the grounds that the inflation outlook had deteriorated and the risk of inflation expectations becoming dislodged had increased. Thus there was a case for the Board to send a stronger signal of its intention to act as necessary to reduce inflation. Further, on some measures, the level of the cash rate in real terms arguably was noticeably below what might be expected given the economy’s circumstances. On this basis, a significant further rise in the cash rate could be necessary.

Members noted that an argument in favour of a rise of only 25 basis points was that the level of rates faced by borrowers had already risen somewhat over the summer, independently of policy action. A rise of 25 basis points now would produce a total rise over nine months of about 100 basis points for business borrowers and around 90 basis points for housing borrowers. This was a significant increase over such a period and much of the effect of it was still to be seen. Additional tightening could be implemented at the March and/or subsequent meetings as judged necessary. Reinforcing this, global credit and equity markets, which the Board considered carefully, had also been unsettled over recent weeks, and the working out of the financial difficulties of the major international financial institutions had some way to run. To date, the effects of this on Australia had been confined to a significant slowing in the pace at which non-bank corporates and intermediaries could raise funds directly, with the major banks largely making up the difference. But some wider dampening effects could occur over the period ahead, which were difficult to factor into economic forecasts."

For February
Provided by: National Association of Home Builders
Official Source: Press Release

"Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes edged marginally higher in February as traffic of prospective buyers through model homes improved considerably, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI rose a single point to 20 this month, still close to its recent historic low reading of 18 (the series began in January of 1985).

“While builders remain very cautious about the outlook for new-home sales given today’s economic environment, the fact that more consumers appear to be checking out their options is a good sign,” said Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. and the newly elected 2008 president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

“Housing has always been a major engine of economic growth, and despite the ongoing market correction, it will once again be that engine in the future. But in order for that to happen, Congress must follow up on its recently enacted economic stimulus program by passing legislation that will jump-start the housing market and keep the economy moving forward,” Dunn noted.

“Some potential buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are starting to at least research a new home purchase given improving affordability factors and the large selection of units on the market,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “That said, builders know there’s a difference between people looking and people buying, and their current outlook remains quite subdued. Additional stimulative measures on the legislative and policy side are definitely needed to bolster consumer confidence and help bring about a housing and economic recovery.”"

Bank of Japan Minutes of Jan 21-22 Meeting
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Official Source: PDF

From the Release:

"On the guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period ahead, members agreed that, given the economic and financial situation, it would be appropriate to maintain the current guideline that the Bank would encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent. They shared the following view: (1) global financial markets continued to be unstable, and there was uncertainty of global economic developments due, for example, to the surge in international commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, and to downside risks to the U.S. economy; (2) the pace of growth of Japan's economy was slowing temporarily mainly due to the drop in housing investment; (3) however, the mechanism of Japan's economic growth basically remained in place, and the economy was likely to continue expanding moderately under price stability; and (4) in this situation, it was appropriate to carefully examine economic and financial developments at home and abroad to grasp the situation more accurately.

Members concurred that their basic thinking on the monetary policy stance for the future remained unchanged. Some members noted the possibility in the short run of slower economic growth and a higher rate of increase in the CPI, and said that it was important not to be swayed too much by short-term developments but to make forward-looking projections of economic and price trends and clearly explain them based on the mechanism underlying economic and price developments.

In addition to the above discussion, members discussed, as in the previous meeting,how the rise in domestic prices triggered by the surge in international commodity prices, particularly crude oil prices, should be understood and how it should be reflected in the conduct of monetary policy. Some members expressed the view that not only supply shocks but also the growth of emerging economies, a demand-side factor, was placing stronger inflation pressure on the global economy, and the degree to which each was contributing should be assessed."

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting
Held on 6 & 7 February 2008
Provided by: The Bank of England

The Bank of England Meeting Minutes reveal that David Blanchflower voted for a .50% reduction in the Bank Rate compared to the other 8 board members, that voted for a .25% reduction. The Bank is expecting inflation to rise sharply in the short term.

"CPI inflation, at 2.2% in January, was close to the 2% target. But the Committee expected that higher energy and food prices would raise inflation, possibly quite sharply, in the coming months. Producer input and output prices were already rising rapidly and the decline in the sterling ERI would boost import costs further. The impact of these short-term pressures on CPI inflation was likely to fade later in 2008, so that inflation was likely to fall back towards the target. But measures of inflation expectations had not fallen in line with actual CPI inflation following its peak during 2007. There was a risk that above-target CPI inflation in the near term would affect inflation expectations, and hence have some tendency to persist in the medium term.

Given this outlook for inflation, the Committee noted that some slowing of demand growth, by reducing the pressure on capacity, was likely to be necessary to return inflation to target in the medium term. The Committee needed to balance the risk that a sharp slowing in activity would pull inflation below the target in the medium term against the risk that elevated inflation expectations would keep inflation above target. Changes in Bank Rate could not be expected to smooth out all short-term fluctuations in output growth.

For a majority of Committee members, balancing these key risks required an immediate reduction in Bank Rate of 25 basis points. Interest rates were probably still bearing down on demand, partly because higher market spreads meant that the level of Bank Rate consistent with any given monetary stance was lower than it had been before spreads had widened. The February Inflation Report, and its accompanying projections, would set out in detail the upside and downside risks to the outlook for inflation. The central projection suggested that there was most likely to be some spare capacity in the economy, even if interest rates followed the path implied by market yields. That would therefore help to ensure that inflation returned to the 2% target in the medium term."

For January
Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Source: PDF 

The government's preferred measure of public finance, public sector net borrowing, showed a record surplus of £14.14bn (ie lending), as higher coporation tax receipts came in larger than expected. January is typically a strong month, but economists had forecast a rapayment by the government of £9.5bn.

For December
Provided by: Statistics Canada

"Non-residents invested $1.2 billion in Canadian securities in December, largely equities. Over the year, foreign portfolio investors sold $33.8 billion worth of Canadian securities, largely reflecting high foreign-takeover activity and the subsequent relinquishing of Canadian portfolio shares to foreign direct investors.

For their part, Canadian investors acquired $1.9 billion worth of foreign securities in December, adding equities and further reducing debt instruments. The meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector and the resulting credit crunch have contributed to major divestments of foreign debt instruments. Since August 2007, Canadians have removed $20.0 billion worth of foreign debt instruments from their portfolios, which largely offset a $35.3 billion investment from January to July 2007."

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2%
CPI y/y: 4.3%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 4.1%
CPI ex. Food & Energy y/y: 2.5%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.4%

Consumer Prices rose 0.4% for the month of January and 4.3% in annual terms. The results were higher than the consensus forecast, and show that as the Federal Reserve has cut rates, inflation has picked up. The "core" rate, which excluded Food and Energy, rose 0.3%. The uncomfortably high inflation may make the Fed more cautious about continuing to cut rates in order to stimulate growth. The Fed's interest rate cuts, which have added up to 2.25 percentage points since September, have come during a time of rising commodity and oil prices, and while the Dollar has been falling. Those factors are now being evident in consumer price increases.

"On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U increased 0.4 percent in January. The indexes for food and for energy each advanced 0.7 percent, following increases in December of 0.1 and 1.7 percent, respectively. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the preceding nine months. The January advance reflects larger increases than in December in the indexes for apparel, for medical care, for recreation, for education and communication, and for other goods and services."

For January
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Housing Starts rose 0.8% in January from December's revised estimate. The annual rate of 1.01M units remained close to the lowest level since 1991. With the housing market in recession, there are more unsold homes on the market, prices are falling, and foreclosures are on the rise. The data has not shown the market hitting a bottom, and future construction, as seen today in the Building Permits release, were down around 3%.

"Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,012,000. This is 0.8 percent above the revised December estimate of 1,004,000, but is 27.9 percent below the revised January 2007 rate of 1,403,000."

For January - Seasonally Adjusted

Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -¥79.3B, forecast ¥20.9B, pr. ¥877.9B

For January

Sales y/y: 7.2%, pr. 11.6%

For January
Provided by: Swiss Federal Statistics Office (main page)
Official Release: Table of Current and Past Data

Producer & Import Prices y/y: 3.7%, forecast 3.1%, pr. 2.7% (Dec)

Producer inflation increased in Switzerland, mainly boosted by higher import prices (0.5%) - a result of higher commodity prices. The annual rate increased by 3.7%, a full 1% higher than in December. The Swiss National Bank is looking at higher consumer and producer prices, though expectations for economic growth are now turning more pessimistic. The SNB will have to decide whether it should move off its current benchmark interest rate of 2.75%.

For January
Official Release from National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 5.6%, forecast 4.7%, pr. 2.8% (rev up from 2.0%).

"Total sales volume increased by 0.8 per cent between December and January. Sales volume for predominantly food stores increased by 0.7 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores increased by 0.4 per cent. Sales volume for household goods stores increased by 4.3 per cent, the largest increase for this sector since August 2006 (5.3 per cent).

The sales volume in the three months November to January rose by 0.6 per cent compared with the previous three months. This follows 0.5 per cent growth in the three months to December. Total sales volume in the three months to January was 4.1 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. "

The National Statistics Office said there is steady underlying growth in retail sales. January's 0.8% increase, mitigates December's fall, which was revised up, and almost doubled forecasts by economists. Consumers took advantage of discounts, showing that consumer spending may is still high to pose pressures to inflation.

The Pound reacted well to the news, and the GBP/USD and GBP/CHF pairs rose around 150 pips following the release.

For February
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

"Activity in the region’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken this month, according to firms surveyed for the February Business Outlook Survey. After falling significantly last month, indexes for general activity, shipments, and new orders remained negative. Despite reporting a weakness in activity, firms continued to report a rise in prices for inputs and their own manufactured goods. Manufacturers’ outlook for the next six months turned noticeably more pessimistic this month.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from -20.9 in January to -24.0 this month. Forty percent of the firms reported no change in activity from January, but the percentage of firms reporting decreases (42 percent) was substantially greater than the percentage reporting increases (18 percent). Other broad indicators also suggested continued declines this month. Demand for manufactured goods, as represented by the survey’s new orders index, remained negative, although the index increased from -15.2 to -10.9. The current shipments index, however, fell 10 points, from -2.3 to -12.2. Indexes for both unfilled orders and delivery times remained negative."