For March
Provided by the Commerce Department

Personal incomes increased 0.3% in March, lower than anticipated, and less than the 0.5% seen in February. With spending in March at 0.5%, it means the difference between the two amounts to -0.2%.

From the Release:

"Personal income increased $38.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $29.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.9 billion, or 0.4 percent. In February, personal income increased $58.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $50.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $11.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates."

For March
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Core PCE y/y: 2.1%, forecast 2.0%, pr. 2.0%,
Core PCE Deflator y/y: forecast 3.2%, pr. 3.4%

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is one of the favored measures of inflation by the Federal Reserve. March's data showed core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices rising 0.2%, compared to February's 0.1% rise. Compared to March 2007 inflation was up 2.1% higher than expected. The Fed prefers to see the annual rate of core PCE at a rate between 1% to 2%, and today's figure bolsters the case that the Fed may try and hold rates steady as their concern shifts from economic growth to inflation.  

For April
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Official Relase: Report

Prices: 84.5, pr. 83.5 (Mar), 75.5 (Feb)
New Orders: 46.5, pr. 46.5 (Mar), 49.1 (Feb)
Production: 49.1, pr. 48.7 (Mar), 50.7 (Feb)
Employment: 45.4, pr. 49.2 (Mar), 46.0 (Feb)
Inventories: 48.1, pr. 44.9 (Mar), 45.4 (Feb)

The Manufacturing sector matched March's figure of 48.6, the 3rd month in a row that activity has contracted. Despite that fact, the release helped the Dollar extend some of its earlier gains vs the Euro as the result came in better than expected. Prices continue to rise, as 84.5% of respondents said they saw higher prices for commodities and energy and their purchasing power declines as the Dollar continues to fall in value.

From the Release:

"The manufacturing sector failed to grow in April as the PMI fell below 50 percent for the third consecutive month. Manufacturers are in a situation where both new orders and production are slowly declining, but prices continue to rise at highly inflationary rates. Bright spots this month are the growth in the Backlog of Orders Index after six consecutive months of decline, continued strength in new export orders and a reduction in customers' inventories."

Down 1.1%, total spending for construction decreased to an annual rate of $1.124trillion. The larger than expected decline mainly came from the residential sector, which was down 4.5% in March, and down 19.7% on the year. Non-residential spending increased 1.3% in March. Spring is suppose to be a recovery period for the housing market. So far this Spring, any signs of recovery have been short-lived, and the slowdown does not seem to be decelerating. Housing starts, building permits, pending home sales continue to tumble to historic lows. Economists and analysts are seeing no recovery until 2009.

For April
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

US services grew in April, beating expectations of another month of contraction. The Dollar strengthened in a knee-jerk reaction to the news. The Business Activity/Production and New Orders subgauges decreased slightly, while Employment and Deliveries were up. Prices also continued increasing, climbing to 72.1 from March's 70.8. The report helps to bolster the case that the US economy is seeing some improved activity after the last two quarters saw the US face a sharp slowdown. The Federal Reserve policy makers have signaled that they will hold interest rates steady now at 2%. If economic data continues to surprise on the upside, then they will be able to carry out that intention.

Preliminary Version for 1st Quarter
Provided by: Department of Labor

Labor Costs q/q: 2.2%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.8% (rev from 2.6%)

US worker productivity climbed 2.2% in the first quarter, higher than expectations. Productivity has gone up as companies try and get more productivity out of their current workers, and trim staff hours by the most in 5 years (-1.8%). Firms are responding to weaker sales and higher raw materials costs and an economy that is seeing negative job growth during 2008 (the economy is down 260,000 according to payroll data).

A loose labor market and higher productivity can work to keep wage inflation down. Labor measured 2.2% for the 1st quarter, slowing from the upwardly revised 2.8% seen in the 4th quarter. Costs were lower than the forecast of a 2.6% increase, which should also work to limit inflation. Adjusted for inflation, hourly pay decreased 0.7% in the year ended in March, which is the weakest performance in 13 years.

For Week Ending May 3rd
Provided by: The Department of Labor

Continuing Claims (Apr 26): 3.020M, pr. 3.030M (rev from 3.019M)

Claims rebounded this week, falling 18K, but the 4 week-moving average, which smoothes out inherent volatility from week to week, continued to rise. With slower growth on the horizon, and raw material costs increasing, firms and factories may lower production as sales decline. This will mean less jobs as the economy goes through a period of marked slowdown (though officially not a recession yet).  

From the release: "In the week ending May 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 365,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 383,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 364,500."

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports m/m:-1.7%     pr. 2.0%
Imports m/m:-2.9%     pr. 3.1%

The US trade defict narrowed more than expected. Both exports and imports shrank, making trading activity a lesser impact on GDP than at this point last year. Demand for US products declined, but was somewhat offset by an increase for food, feed, and beverages. Imports declined the fastest since December of 2001. As the consumers and businesses feel the pinch from the economic slowdown, demand for car and oil imports declined.

The dollar had been losing overnight, but pared some of the losses on the positive trade data. The caveat is that although the trade gap narrowed, the reason behind it was a decline in trade activity. That means the impact on the GDP is reduced. 

Advance Retail sales for April
Latest Release Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Core Retail Sales: 0.5%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.4% r(0.1%)

Retail Sales declined 0.2% meating expectations. Excluding auto sales, "core" retail sales were up 0.5%, higher than forecast. March's core sales were revised up to 0.4% compared to the original stated increase of 0.1%. Sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2.8%, the main drag on the headline figure. In March, auto sales were down 0.5%. Consumers still seem to be willing to go out and spend and compared to last month sales at gasoline stations were down 0.4% (they were up 1.6% in Mar). Sales of building materials and garden supplies increased 1.9%, 1.4% at electronics and appliance stores, and 0.5% at general merchandise stores. 

Even though auto sales are having a hard time, the surprise strength of core goods was a welcome sign for those watching consumer spending in the US during this rough environment (the 4th and 1st quarters had growth of 0.6%).  

For April
Provided by: US Department of Labor
Most Current Release: PDF

Import Prices y/y: 15.4%, forecast 15.0%, pr 14.8% (Mar), 13.6% (Feb)
Export Prices m/m: 0.3%, pr. 1.5% (Mar), 0.9% (Feb)
Export Prices y/y: 7.7%

Compared to April 2007, import prices increased 15.4% last month. Its the largest annual rise since data was first published in September of 1982. Petroleum led the charge, rising 57.2% on the year. On the month import prices wre up 1.8% compared with March's 2.9% increase. Even excluding oil, import prices climbed rather steeply suggesting the weak Dollar is making imports such as automobiles and capital goods more expensive. Higher prices for overseas products will work as an inflation risk to the US economy if these sorts of numbers persist.

For April
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Impact: High

CPI ex. Food & Energy m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2% 

Consumer Price Index y/y: 3.9%, forecast 3.9%, pr. 4.0%
CPI ex Food & Energy y/y: 2.3%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.4%

US consumer inflation was held in check during April. Prices rose 0.2% on the month with the "core" value rising only 0.1%. Both figures were lower than forecasts. The annual rate remained at 3.9%. A slowing economy may be easing some of the price pressures as the Fed had suggested would happen. Core annual inflation was lower at 2.3%, though still above the Fed's comfort zone of 1.5% to 2%. With the Fed seemingly done cutting rates, and switching their focus on stamping out inflation, today's data was a welcome sign.

For May
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

From the Release:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State deteriorated slightly in May. The general business conditions index fell below zero, to -3.2. The new orders index remained close to zero, and the shipments index, while positive, declined markedly. The prices paid index exceeded its earlier record high by a wide margin, reaching 69.6, while the prices received index dipped several points. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally low and down from last month's levels, suggesting that the outlook for the next six months remains subdued, particularly for employment."

For April
Provided by: Federal Reserve

Capacity Utilization: 79.9%, forecast 80.1%, pr. 80.4%

Industrial production fell by more than expected in April, declining 0.7% on the month. That figure was two times lower than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% fall. Weaker consumer spending due to the US slowdown caused car manufacturers to cut back production the data showed. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, production was still 0.4% lower than in March. Capacity Utilization, the proportion of plants in use, fell to 79.7%. With several factors such as the deep housing recession, soaring energy and food prices, and higher credit costs are sapping the strength of American consumers and firms, it is foreign demand that is propping up production, without which the total would be even weaker. The low value of the Dollar is helping that trend.

Two regional measures of manufacturing, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the NY Empire Manufacturing Index were both in negative territory, at -15.6 and -3.2 respectively.

Summary from the Release:

"Industrial production declined 0.7 percent in April after having risen 0.2 percent in March. Manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent in April. As was the case in March, factory output in April was held down by a large drop in the index for motor vehicles and parts; strikes and strike-related parts shortages resulted in suspended production at many facilities. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production fell back 0.4 percent after having increased 0.3 percent in March. In April, the output of utilities rose 0.3 percent, and the output at mines decreased 0.8 percent. At 111.2 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial production was 0.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined 0.7 percentage point, to 79.7 percent, a level 1.3 percentage points below its average for 1972-2007."

For May
Provided by: National Association of Home Builders
Official Release: Press Release

After 3 months of holding steady at 20, the NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to 19, towards the historical low of 18 set in December. The expectations component dropped to 17 from 19. Despite the Fed's actions so far to free up credit, decrease, short-term interest rates, and stimuluate growth in the economy, the housing market sees no improvement yet. The contraction in the housing market is expected to ease up in the spring and summer, and recover in the latter half of the year. A few more poor reports like this will probably deflate these hopes.

Annualized figure for April
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Building Permits m/m: 4.9%, pr. -5.8%

Building permits increased 4.9% in April compared to March, registering an annual pace of 978K. The figure surprised on the upside and reflected gains in both single and multifamily units. Housing starts were up as well, though growth there was led by multifamily units only. Despite lower interest rates from the Fed, housing has been stuck as home-buyers are having a harder time financing loans, and a slowing economy is sapping jobs and confidence in the country. Housing prices continue to fall and even yesterday's NAHB-Wells Fargo House Price Index declined to 19 from 20. One good report does not break a trend.

For April
Provided by: Conference Board

The leading index showed a 0.1% gain, matching March's value. Prior to March, the index has been negative for 5 months. The categories that boosted the index were stock prices, interest rate spreads and housing permits. Negative contributors were average weekly hours and consumer expectations. With the index staying positive, it should be a good indication for the US economy as it flirts with recessionary conditions. Though the economic outlook still remains weak, the data suggests that the economy may not weaken further.

The coincident index, which focuses more on current economic activity remained unchanged in April, remaining at 106.9 (2004=100).

For April

See main PPI comment above for analysis, more data and excerpt from main release.

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes for April 29-30 Meeting
Provided by: Federal Reserve
Official Release: HTML PDF

The Federal Reserve seems ready to stay on the sidelines and the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was a "close call." The risks to growth and inflation are now balanced and only "significant weakening of the economic outlook" would force another interest rate cut. Inflation expectations were put higher, with the personal consumption index expected to jump to a range of 3.1 to 3.4% compared to the previous forecast of a 2.1% to 2.4% rise. Also, the worst part of the credit crisis seems to have passed. The Fed did also reduce their projections for economic growth this year by almost a full percentage point. Expectations are now for growth to increase by 0.3% to 1.2% this year.

The minutes did not do much to strengthen the Dollar on a day of Dollar weakness, so the markets may have priced in the pause and have not gleamed new information. Only a change of language regarding inflation's risks, and the talk of raising interest rates would have supported the Dollar. US stocks were reeling today, and the Dollar's losses intensified against the Yen.

From the Release: " The Committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity. In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize the downside risks to growth. Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments would depend on the extent to which economic and financial developments affected the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In that regard, several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook."

For March
Provided by: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
Official Source: PDF

Purchases Only HPI q/q (1st Q): -1.7%
All Transaction HPI q/q (1st Q): -0.2%

Housing prices in the US fell 0.4% in March compared to February and were down 1.7% for the 1st quarter. As prices come down it could lead to a recovery of the housing market as potential home buyers can afford the homes they seek. However weakening housing prices will continue to weight on consumer spending as home sellers make less profit from their home sales.

From the Release: "With this release, OFHEO continues its publication of its monthly price index, which was introduced in February. Between February and March, prices fell 0.4 percent nationally on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and they have fallen a total of 3.7 percent since their April 2007 peak."

For April
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -1.0%, forecast -1.6%, pr. -2.0% (Mar), -2.7% (Feb)
Median Existing Home Price: $202,300, pr. $219,900 (Apr '07)

Existing home sales fell 1% in April to an annual pace of 4.89 million units. Inventories were on the rise, while prices dropped sharply. Restirictive lending policies have made it more difficult for potential home purchasers to finance lending, though the report states that recent moves by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae may help to ease restrictive policies. Inventoriesincreased to 4.55 million existing homes, a 10.5% increase, which represents a 11.2 month supply at current sales pace.

From the Release: "Existing-home sales slowed in April, partly because restrictive lending practices hampered home buyers. At the same time, a greater number of areas are showing sales gains from a year ago and a recent reversal in mortgage policy means the market is better positioned for a turnaround, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – declined 1.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in April from an upwardly revised pace of 4.94 million in March, and are 17.5 percent below the 5.93 million-unit level in April 2007."

Yearly Change from March for 20-City Composite
Provided by: Standard & Poor's
Official Release: PDF

10-City Composite y/y: -15.3%, pr. -13.6%

From the Release: "The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reached well into double digits, recording a 14.1% decline in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the 1st quarter of 2007, the largest in the series 20-year history. As a comparison, during the 1990-91 housing recession the annual rate bottomed at -2.8%. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of -15.3% and -14.4%, respectively.

“The steep downturn in residential real estate continues,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor’s. “There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and six of those now at negative rates exceeding -20%. Looking closely at these returns, you can see that 15 of the metro areas are also reporting record lows, and eleven are in double digit decline, with Chicago being the latest metro area to join these ranks. The monthly data paints a similar picture, with 18 of the metro areas reporting at least seven consecutive months of negative returns. For the first time in as many months, we finally saw monthly price appreciation in two of the metro areas – Charlotte was up 0.2% in March over February, and Dallas was up 1.1%.” 

The Conference Board's measure of consumer fell for the 5th straight month, with both present and expectations indexes declining. The index is at a 16-year low, as Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center explained:

"The Consumer Confidence Index now stands at a 16-year low (Oct. 1992, 54.6). Weakening business and job conditions coupled with growing pessimism about the short-term future have further depleted consumers' confidence in the overall state of the economy. Consumers' inflation expectations, fueled by increasing prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead. As for the short-term outlook, the Expectations Index suggests little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead."