For March
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Prices:             83.5, pr. 75.5
New Orders:     46.5, pr. 49.1
Production:      48.7. pr. 50.7
Employment:    49.2, pr. 46.0

Though economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in March, the result from the ISM was better than expected. Economists had predicted a further fall of the index, but it managed to improve from February's result. The index was helped by an increase to the employment and deliveries, and backlog of orders sub gauges, though new orders and production declined. Prices surged, increasing 8 percentage points to 83.5. 

The Dollar continued its overnight rally following the news, especially against the Yen.  

New orders for manufactured goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $424.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent January decrease. Shipments, down two of the last three months, decreased $9.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $423.0 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, increased $7.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $822.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.50, up from 5.38 in January. Inventories, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $538.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent January increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, up from 1.24 in January.

For Week Ending March 29
Provided by: The Department of Labor

Continuing Claims (Mar 2): 2.937M, pr. 2.8445M

The number of jobless claims largely overshot expectations, climbing to a level above 400K. Carry trade took an immediate hit following this release, as investor confidence may be shaken by such a poor number prior to Friday's important payroll data. The rise to 400K is an indication of the US heading for a recession, especially if this level is sustained.

The Euro's overnight gains were wiped out as a result of this poorer data:

EUR/USD - Euro Pares Overnight Losses From Retial Sales On US Jobless Claims: The release of the US jobless claims data started a rally a 160 pip rally, paring most of the overnight losses.
 

GBP/USD - Pound Surges After Slipping Overnight:  The Pound also gained on the Dollar, with its rally accelerating after the US data. The pair stalled at 1.9970 around noon NY time and came down slightly by late NY trading.
 

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, forecast 5.0%, pr. 4.8%

March was the 3rd consecutive month of job losses for the US, which was coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. A deteriorating labor market will affect consumers, as they will be less inclined to go spending and their confidence falls. Forecasts had been for a 50K fall.

From the Release: "The unemployment rate rose from 4.8 to 5.1 percent in March, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-80,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the past 3 months, payroll employment has declined by 232,000. In March, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and employment services, while health care, food services, and mining added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month."

EUR/USD Reaches Near 1.5775 After Data, Then Comes Down: Initially, the Dollar extended its losses against the Euro and turned lower against the Japanese Yen immediately after the data. That move was trimmed down, but the higher than expected result should pressure the Dollar the rest of the day.

USD/CHF Falls as Carry Trade Unwinds Following Release: The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen both straightened in the hour and a half following the release, as volatility shot up in the markets.

For February
Provided by: Federal Reserve

Americansincreased their outstanding credit in February by $5.2 billion, half of January's upwardly revised $10.3 billion. THe majority of the increase in total consumer debt was for credit card debt.

Federal Open Market Committee Minutes for March 17-18 Meeting
Provided by: Federal Reserve
Official Release: HTML PDF

FOMC meeting minutes re-iterated some of the things Bernanke has been saying recently, most importantly that Fed official see that a contraction in the economy during the first half of 2008, with several members believing that a "prolonged" and "severe" downturn could not be ruled out.

From the Release:

"In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, most members judged that a substantial easing in the stance of monetary policy was warranted at this meeting. The outlook for economic activity had weakened considerably since the January meeting, and members viewed the downside risks to economic growth as having increased. Indeed, some believed that a prolonged and severe economic downturn could not be ruled out given the further restriction of credit availability and ongoing weakness in the housing market. Members recognized that monetary policy alone could not address fully the underlying problems in the housing market and in financial markets, but they noted that, through a range of channels, lower short-term real interest rates should help buoy economic activity and ameliorate strains in these markets."

For February
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Official Release: PDF 

Inventories at US wholesalers rose more than forecast in February, as sales were down 0.8%. The 1.1% increase in inventories follows an upwardly revised 1.3% gain for January. The inventories to sales ratio of 1.12 is at a 5 month high. If sales continue to be slow, wholesalers will lower their orders of goods from producers until their stockpiles are run down.

From The Release:

"Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations, trading-day differences, and moving holidays, but not for price changes, were $377.4 billion, down 0.8 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised January level, but were up 12.2 percent (+/-1.2%) from the February 2007 level.

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $421.9 billion at the end of February, up 1.1 percent (+/-0.3%) from the revised January level and were up 7.4 percent (+/-1.2%) from a year ago.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.12. The February 2007 ratio was 1.17."

For Week Ending April 5th
Provided by: The Department of Labor

Continuing Claims (Mar 29): 2.94M, pr. 2.937M

Initial jobless claims rebounded from last week's poor figure falling by 53K to 357K. The number of people continuing to receive claims rose to the highest level in 4 years. Firms may be waiting to see the extend of the economic slowdown before laying off more workers, a positive sign, as a deteriorating in the job market is one of the first signs of a recession. The US has seen three months of job losses in the Non-farm payroll release, so the labor market is loosening. With continuing claims continuing to rise, today's headline claims number is only one bright spot in a sea of negative warning to employment and the economy. 

Preliminary Release for April
Provided by: Reuters
March's Release: Press Release - PDF

Current Condition: 78.4, pr. 84.1

Confidence among US consumer sank to a 26 year low in April. Consumers are increasingly pessimistic as the labor market deteriorates and gas prices continue to rise. The reading caught forecasts by surprise as expectations were for only a slight drop. The news will most likely mean that consumer spending will take a hit as households manage higher gas, food, and energy bills during a recession.

For April
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The better than expected report helped to boost the Dollar in early NY trading. 

From the Release:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York stabilized in April after deteriorating in February and March. The general business conditions index rose sharply, to 0.6. The new orders and shipments indexes also moved into positive territory, the latter climbing 23 points. The prices paid index advanced to its highest level since late 2005, and the prices received index rose modestly. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally weaker than in March, and the capital expenditures index, while positive, fell to its lowest level since 2003. "

For April
Provided by: National Association of Home Builders
Official Release: Press Release 

From the Release:

Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes remained unchanged for a third consecutive month in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI held at 20, up marginally from the record low of 18 set in December of 2007 (the series began in January of 1985).

Annual Pace For March
Provided by: Department of Commerce

Housing Starts m/m: -11.9%, forecast -6.1%, pr. -0.7%

Housing starts slipped more than expected falling to an annualized pace of 947,000. The fall was steeper than expected and means the housing market is still receding and has not hit bottom. It was the lowest level in 17 years, and showed that February's mild decrease was not an indication of the market stabilizing. Building permits declined 5.8%, also more than expected.

With foreclosures adding extra supply of unsold homes and driving down value of houses, new construction suffers and will continue to be a drag on the economy. Housing starts are expected to fall 30% this year the National Association of Home Builders forecast yesterday. Weaker housing starts will hurt in other ways as construction jobs decline, and prices of construction materials, appliances and furnishing to fall hurting those businesses.

Provided by: Federal Reserve
Official Release: Summary 

From the Release:

"Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic conditions have weakened since the last report. Nine Districts noted slowing in the pace of economic activity, while the remaining three--Boston, Cleveland, and Richmond--described activity as mixed or steady.

Consumer spending was characterized as softening across most of the country, with some Districts reporting year-over-year declines in retail and/or auto sales. In contrast, tourism was generally described as strong, with a number of Districts noting particular strength in foreign visitors. Reports on nonfinancial services varied by District: demand for transportation services was generally characterized as weak, while business and health services continued to expand; other service industries were said to be mixed. Trends in manufacturing also varied across Districts. Reports on real estate and construction were generally anemic for the residential sector; activity in the commercial sector has slowed. Financial institutions in many Districts indicated some deceleration in consumer loan demand, tightening in lending standards, and deterioration in asset quality. Most Districts reported improved conditions in the agricultural sector and robust activity in the energy industry.

Labor markets were mostly described as weakening since the last report, though a few Districts reported ongoing shortages of skilled workers and some Districts noted wage pressures. Increases in input costs were widespread, accompanied by somewhat smaller rises in selling prices."

The region’s manufacturing sector showed continued weakness in April. The survey’s current indicators for activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and average hours worked remained negative and declined from their readings in March. Cost pressures remained widespread, and a larger share of firms reported price increases for their own manufactured goods this month. Although somewhat more optimistic about the future this month, manufacturers remain generally cautious. Firms expect no increase in employment over the next six months, and some firms have cut back, delayed, or postponed planned capital spending.

For March
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -2.0%, forecast -2.0%, pr. 2.9%
Median Existing Home Price: $200,700 (Mar 08), $217,400 (Mar 07)

Existing home sales declined again in March, after showing some signs of improvement in February. The decline was expected, and the Dollar was already being pressured against the Euro from overnight. However against the Yen, the Dollar found some strengthen following the release.

From the Release:

"Existing-home sales edged down in March, remaining within a narrow range of sales activity that has persisted since last September, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – were down 2.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (1) of 4.93 million units in March from a level of 5.03 million in February, and remain 19.3 percent below the 6.11 million-unit pace in March 2007. A rise in condo sales in March was offset by a drop in single-family sales. Regionally, sales rose in the Northeast and West but fell in the Midwest and South.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market is performing unevenly. “Though mortgage rates are at historically low levels, some borrowers are facing restrictive lending practices in declining markets,” he said. “At the same time, many buyers continue to bide their time with a large number of homes to choose from, while other potential buyers remain on the sidelines.”"

For March
Provided by: US Census Bureau

Orders ex. Transportation: 1.5%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -2.1% (rev from -2.6%)

Orders for big-ticket items surprised on the downside in March, declining 0.3%, making it the 3rd straight month of declines. It suggests that manufacturing will continue to go through a rough period as the broader economy falters. A measure of business equipment spending - orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft - was flat, after declining the last 2 months. Transportation orders were down 4.6%. Defense new orders for capital goods decreased 19.8%, a major factor in the negative result.

Orders excluding transportation orders were up 1.5%, surprising on the upside. Demand from overseas, primarily driven by a weak dollar, helped factories offset lower domestic demand as a result of the housing led slowdown.  It reverses a 2.1% decline in February.

The better than expected increase in core orders and positive job growth data helped boost the Dollar today in early NY trading.

For Week Ending April 19th
Provided by: The Department of Labor

Continuing Claims (Apr 12th): 2.934M, forecast 2.960K, pr. 2.999M (rev from 2.984M)

The number of Americans filing for first time claims for unemployment benefits declined by 33K, surprising forecasts and helping to boost the Dollar in early NY trading. It puts the number at a two month low. It is a welcome sign that perhaps companies which had been laying off workers have paused as they assess the current economic conditions and how the downturn in the economy plays out.

For April
Provided by: Reuters

Current Index: 77.0, pr. 84.2 (Mar)
Expectations: 53.3, pr. 60.1 (Mar)
12-Mo Inflation Forecast: 4.8%, pr. 4.3% (Mar)
5-Yr Inflation Forecast: 3.2%, pr. 2.9% (Mar)

The final version of the UMich consumer sentiment index slipped to 62.6 from March's 69.5. The preliminary release saw the index decline to 63.2. 9 out of 10 respondents said the economy was in recession, and inflation expectations deteriorated in the face of higher gasoline and food prices. Also, many plan to spend their money from the government stimulus package to pay down debt or to save, meaning the effect on the economy will be limited from the plan. The survey is not always indicative of what will happen in the economy, but today's report casts a somber picture of consumer's moods.

From the Release:

"Consumer confidence sank to a quarter century low in the April 2008 survey. The decline was due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and falling home values. “The recent acceleration in the loss in confidence indicates a longer and potentially deeper recession,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Rising inflation, higher joblessness, and smaller income gains has made most consumers more cautious spenders. “Rising uncertainty about future living standards has caused consumers to adopt more prudent spending plans and become more wary of incurring new debt,” Curtin said."

For April
Provided by: Conference Board

Present Situation Index: 80.7, pr. 90.6
Expectations Index: 50.1, pr. 49.4

Sentiments among American consumers fell further in April extending a sharp downtrend since April last year. We have heard some talks that the worst could be behind us. If that is true, April's confidence reading should be the bottom. The next survey will reveal whether or not these recovery talks permeate the market and consumers. Above all, the employment report this Friday will be the focal point of discussion and the key component in assessments of economic growth in the upcoming months.

From the Release: Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's decline in Consumer Confidence was the result of yet another sharp decline in the Present Situation Index. This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over into the second quarter, but that economic conditions may have slowed even further. And, not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns. Consumers' inflation expectations continue to rise and this measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The percentage of respondents intending to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year low, another sign of consumers turning more cost conscious. Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for the economy, the job market and their income prospects remains quite pessimistic and little changed from last month. Or, in other words, the glass remains half empty."

Advance Annualized version for 1st Quarter.
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Official Release: Press Release 

GDP Product Price Index: 2.6%, forecast 3.0%, pr 2.6%
Core PCE: 2.2%, forecast 2.2%, pr. 2.5%

The US economy expanded at an annual pace of 0.6%, higher than consensus forecasts and matched the 4th quarter rate. The GDP data was bolstered by increased spending on inventories which added 0.81% to overall GDP, and without which the results would have been negative. Consumer spending was up 1% compared to 2.3% in the 4th quarter. Housing, measured as residential fixed investment fell 26.7%, reducing GDP by 1.23% points. Exports were up 5.5%, while imports increased 2.5%, a net gain for the US economy. Business spending was down 2.5% compared to a 6% increase i