Japan's central bank members voted unanimously to hold rates. The policy makers felt it unnecessary to be too concerned with downside risk to growth albeit signs of easing corporate activities. However, these risks are mostly in the short and medium term. This decision was widely anticipated and did little to move the market.

Final Version for 4rd Quarter
Provided by: Cabinet Office

GDP Annualized: 3.5%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 3.7%

The Japanese economy posted a growth rate of 0.9% compared to the 3rd quarter, and an annualized rate of 3.5%. The figures beat expectations of smaller increases. The data showed that exports were a main factor in driving growth, offsetting a slumping housing market. Net exports added 0.5% to growth. The Yen had a strong session following the news, as it toned down speculation that the Bank of Japan may have to cut rates in order to stimulate growth.

Japanese exports are performing better than expected, especially as the US has entered a period of slowdown. Whereas in the past, a slumping US would bring down export driven economies along with it - such as Japan - the current situation is seeing these economies continue to push out exports as demand from emerging economies props up orders. The new buzzword for this recent phenomenon is "decoupling" and should limit the effect that the US slowdown may have on export-driven economies such as Japan and Germany.

Final Version for January
Provided by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Industrial Production y/y:2.2%;  pr. 2.5%

For February
Provided by: The Bank of Japan

CSPI m/m: pr. -1.1% (Jan), 0.1% (Dec)

Tokyo CPI for March
Provided by: Statistics Bureau

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food y/y: 0.6%, forecast 0.5%, pr. 0.4% (Feb)
Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy y/y: 0.1%, forecast 0.0%, pr. -0.1% (Feb)

Tokyo's March Consumer Prices rose 0.6% on the year, beating expectations. Core Prices also surprised on the upside. Gains were led by increases in energy and commodities. The Tokyo indicator acts as a leading index for the rest of the country, which saw its February CPI increase a full 1% on the year. Inflation is creeping up just as consumers are spending less, and the job market begins to slacken as a result of condition in the global marketplace.

For February (s.a.)
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
January's Release: Summary and Figures

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Feb): 0.97, forecast 0.98, pr. 0.98

The Unemployment rate increased in Japan, notching up to 3.9%, missing forecasts of a stable 3.8%. With the global economy on shaky footing recently, a deterioration in the job market may cause consumers to spend less. This has borne out already in Household Spending y/y last month, which was flat missing estimates of a 2.5% rise.

For February
Provided by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Titled "Preliminary report on the Current Survey of Commerce"

Large Retailer's Sales y/y: 1.3%, forecast 2.2%, pr. -2.0% (Jan - rev. from -1.9%)

Retail Sales grew by 3.1%, a surge compared to January 1.3%. This number surprised forecasts on the upside. Even large retailers, which had been negative 4 out of the last 5 months, saw an improvement to 1.3%. Forecasts however called for a slightly larger rise.

It was the 7th straight month of growth. Still, amid worsening sentiment due to sluggish wage growth, rising food, fuel prices, it is difficult to say that consumption solid, as retail sales were inflated by a 14.8% rise in fuel costs.

For March
The NTC Research/Nomura/JMMA Purchasing Managers Index

The Japanese Manufacturing PMI declined in March to 49.5, more than a full point lower than February. It brings the indicator back into the "contraction" level for the first time in 5 months.

From Reuters:

"The latest survey painted a rather bleak picture, with both output and new orders contracting concurrently for the first time in five months," said Paul Smith, economist at NTC Research.

The PMI's output index, which approximates industrial production, declined to 48.5 in March from 50.9 in the previous month, falling below the 50 threshold for the first time in five months.

Respondents to the survey pointed to weakness in incoming new orders as a major reason behind the decline in output, a report on the survey said."

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan

Pre-Release from MarketWatch:

"An influential Bank of Japan survey is expected to show on Tuesday that confidence among Japan's larger manufacturers deteriorated sharply in the three months ending March 31 as a slowing U.S. economy, rising yen and higher energy and food prices undermine business conditions."

Post-Release:

The Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment slid to 11 points in March from 19 in December, worse than economists had forecast. Exporters may be cutting back capital spending and production as the Japanese economy's recovery is losing steam. Exports have been a main driver of recent growth, and much will depend how the US and other large economies perform in the face of the global slowdown caused by the credit crunch and financial crisis of last year.