Canada Country Profile - Economy, Currency, Central Bank, Canadian Dollar, CAD

Introduction

Canada is the 8th largest economy in the world with GDP valued at C$1.269 trillion in 2006, and a population of 32 million. The country has been growing consistently since 1991. Canada is currently the world's 5th largest producer of gold and the 14th largest producer of oil. However, two-thirds of the country's GDP comes from the service sector, which employs 3 out 4 Canadians. Manufacturing and resources are very important for the Canadian economy, as it represents over 25% of the country's exports.

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Canada's Fundamental Indicators and Chart

Monthly Data for July, 2008

Date	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
7/1	8:00am	Holiday: Canada Day
7/4	10:00am	Ivey PMI	69.9	62.2	62.5
		"Ivey Purchasing Managers Index" for June Latest Release from: Purchasing Management Association
7/7	8:30am	Building Permits	1.1%	-6.5%	14.5%
		For May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release From the Release: "The total value of building permits increased for the second consecutive month in May, despite a substantial decline in the residential sector. Contractors took out $6.6 billion in permits in May, up 1.1% from April and the highest value for permits since October 2007. The total was 6.7% above the monthly average for 2007. It was the first back-to-back increase in construction intentions since November 2006, and could point to busy construction sites in the coming months. The value of building permits has followed an upward trend since the beginning of the year. In the non-residential sector, municipalities issued $2.9 billion in permits, up 12.8%, a second consecutive gain. The rise came mostly from strong increases in the industrial and institutional intentions. The value of permits in the residential sector has been on a downward trend since September 2007. Residential intentions fell 6.6% to $3.7 billion in May, the result of a considerable decrease in the value of multi-family permits."
7/7	10:00am	BOC Business Outlook Survey	3.96		-1.96
		Survey from Q2 (Summer Survey) Provided by: Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (pdf) Business outlooks for the summer improved significantly in the latest Business Outlook Survey. Approximately 37% of the respondents reported a forecast of better sales in the 12 months ahead, and about 33% responded negatively, while the rest was neutral, giving a positive balance of 3.96. Other gauges: When asked about the growth rate in the past 12 months, a balance of 7% reported improvements, the lowest since Q1 of 2004. Firms however are very optimistic of the investment environment ahead as 40% expect higher spending on machinery and equipment versus the 16% who expected less spending, a balance of 24%. Expections of higher input costs continues to plague respondents, more of whom are also expecting to pass on the costs to output prices. Also less firms are feeling the credit crunch. Overall the survey conveys a different business sentiment than the US. The pressure from the credit crunch is subsiding, and inflation continues to persist so the BOC may be more hawkish in its next meeting in deciding rates.
7/9	8:15am	Housing Starts	218	217.5K	228K 221K
		For June Provided by: Mortgage and Housing Corporation Official Release: News Release From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts was 217,800 units in June, down from 227,700 units in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Despite the decrease in June, total housing starts remain at high levels.” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “This is mostly due to the multiple segment which has been continuously above the 100,000 unit threshold since the beginning of the year.” The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts moved down by 5.0 per cent in June compared to May. Both urban multiples and singles decreased, with a decline of 3.0 per cent for multiples to 114,700 units, and a 7.8 per cent drop for singles to 74,600 units." USD/CAD - Loonie Gains 100 Pips on Greenback, Strongest Session in a Week: The Loonie took the offensive against the greenback, with the US Dollar-Canadian Dollar pair sliding 100 pips to trade near 1.01. It's the biggest move in favor of the Loonie about a week, as the Canadian housing starts release, corresponded with higher oil prices and general US Dollar weakness in today's session.
7/11	7:00am	Employment Change	-5.0K	10.0K	8.4K
		For June Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada Unemployment Rate: 6.2%, forecast 6.1%, pr. 6.1% The Canadian economy shed 5K jobs in June, surprising forecasts on the downside. Expectations were for a 10K gain. The unemployment notched up to 6.2%, the highest since April 2007. The news shows that the slowdown in the US may be spreading to the Canadian economy. The report may also have an effect on the Bank of Canada as it walks a fine line between warning about rising inflation and weaker growth. In its last meeting, the Bank held rates steady when expectations were for a rate cut. The economy lost 39.2K full-time jobs in June, while adding 34.2K part-time jobs. From the Release: "The only industry with a notable employment increase in June was professional, scientific and technical services, where monthly gains totalled 37,000. This industry has been among the top industries for employment growth since June 2007, along with construction; public administration; and health care and social assistance. Industries with declines in June included: business, building and other support services; health care and social assistance; as well as construction. While manufacturing was unchanged in June, it was down 1.6% (-33,000) from a year ago." The news gave the greenback a boost against the Canadian Dollar, with the USD/CAD jumping 60 pips following the release.
7/11	7:00am	Unemployment Rate	6.2%	6.1%	6.1%
		For June Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada Employment Change: -5.0K, forecast 10.0K, pr. 6.1% See "Employment Change" for commentary.
7/11	8:30am	New Housing Price Index	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
		For May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release New Housing Price Index y/y: 4.1%, pr. 5.2% (Apr), 6.1% (Mar) From the Release: "New housing prices increased at their slowest pace in almost six years in May, continuing a deceleration that started in September 2006, due mainly to the softening market in Alberta and British Columbia. Nationally, contractors' selling prices rose 4.1% between May 2007 and May 2008, a slower pace than the year-over-year increase of 5.2% in April. This was the slowest rate of growth since July 2002 when year-over-year prices increased by 4.0%. On a monthly basis, prices were unchanged between April and May."
7/11	8:30am	Trade Balance	5.5B	5.2B	5.1B
		For May in C$ Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release From the Release: "Canada's trade surplus with the world expanded to $5.5 billion in May, from $4.8 billion in April, as exports to countries other than the United States reached their highest level ever and exports to the United States remained strong. Canadian exports rose for the fifth consecutive month, increasing 5.4% to $42.1 billion, as both volumes and prices increased. However, since November 2007, export prices have been on the rise, while volumes have been on a downward trend. Imports increased 3.9% to $36.6 billion, their largest increase since July 2007. Volumes were up, while prices declined. Nevertheless, import prices have been on an upward trend for the past seven months, while movements in volume have been more volatile. Exports to the United States increased for the fifth month in a row, reaching $31.3 billion, their highest level since December 2006. Imports grew by almost the same dollar value as exports, leaving the trade surplus with Canada's largest trading partner virtually unchanged at $8.1 billion."
7/15	8:30am	New Motor Vehicle Sales	1.1%	0.0%	-2.6%
		For May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release From the Release: "After three consecutive months of declines, new motor vehicle sales rose slightly in May. Consumers purchased 145,224 new vehicles in May, an increase of 1.1% from April. Shifting consumer preferences away from trucks to passenger cars has been the main factor in determining the direction of new motor vehicle sales in Canada so far this year. Preliminary industry data for June suggests that the number of new motor vehicles sold will remain relatively unchanged. Following three months of declines, sales of passenger cars rose 4.3% in May to 78,988 units. This growth was spread evenly between North American-built and overseas-built passenger cars. However, despite May's result, the trend for North American-built passenger cars remained flat while overseas-built cars continued to follow an upward trend. Sales of new trucks (which include minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses) declined 2.3% to 66,236 units. The share of trucks sold was at its lowest point since October 2005."
7/15	9:00am	BOC Interest Rate Statement	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
		Provided by: Bank of Canada Statement: Press Release The Canadian Dollar reached parity against the US Dollar prior to its meeting. In its statement, part of which is reporduced below, the bank said it judges that its current level of 3% is "appropriate." Consumer inflation will continue to have upside risks as commodity prices continue to increase, but core inflation should remain "broadly in line with expectations." From the Release: "Three major developments are affecting the Canadian economy: the protracted weakness in the U.S. economy; ongoing turbulence in global financial markets; and sharp increases in many commodity prices. The first two developments are evolving roughly in line with expectations in the April Monetary Policy Report. However, commodity prices are continuing to outstrip earlier expectations. This has led to further increases in Canada's terms of trade and real national income, and has altered the outlook for global and domestic inflation. Total CPI inflation over the next year is expected to be much higher than projected at the time of the April Report. Assuming energy prices follow current futures prices over the projection period, total CPI inflation is projected to rise temporarily above 4 per cent, peaking in the first quarter of 2009. As energy prices stabilize and with medium-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored, total inflation is then projected to converge to the core rate of inflation at the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2009. Core inflation is projected to remain well contained and broadly in line with earlier expectations, averaging close to 1.5 per cent through the third quarter of this year and then rising to 2 per cent in the second half of 2009. The three major developments affecting the Canadian economy pose significant upside and downside risks to the Bank's base-case projection. Weighing the implications of these, the Bank views the risks to its base-case projection for inflation as balanced. Against this backdrop, the Bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate remains appropriate."
7/16	8:30am	Manufacturing Shipments	2.7%	0.4%	2.1% 2.0%
		For May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: Press Release From the Release: "In 2002 prices, manufacturing sales edged up 0.2% to $47.2 billion in May. Current dollar manufacturing sales rose 2.7% to $51.4 billion. This was the largest increase since March 2007 and the fourth increase in five months. Sales increased for 16 of 21 industries, representing 94% of total manufacturing sales. However, despite these gains, May's sales remained below year earlier levels and well below the peak of $53.1 billion in March 2007. Petroleum and coal products (+9.2%) accounted for almost half of the growth in manufacturing sales in May. Sales climbed to $7.7 billion, and have increased by almost 20% since March 2008. Rapidly rising prices accounted for most of this growth, as the price for petroleum and coal products increased by about 17% during the same period."
7/17	8:30am	International Securities Transactions	10.7B	3.5B	9.8B
		For May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release From the Release: "Foreign demand for Canadian securities remained strong in May as investment in new Canadian bonds accelerated. This activity was mainly comprised of long-term debt instruments issued by the provincial and private corporate sectors. At the same time, Canadian investors continued to diversify their investment by adding a sizable amount of foreign securities to their portfolios, favouring equities over long-term debt instruments. May also saw the second monthly investment in foreign short-term debt since August 2007. Non-residents purchased $7.7 billion worth of Canadian bonds in May, the largest monthly acquisition in over a year. The focus remained on new issues denominated in foreign currencies by Canadian private corporations and provinces, with $6.8 billion (net of retirements) of these bonds picked up."
7/17	10:30am	BOC Monetary Policy Report
		Provided by: Bank of Canada Official Release: PDF Highlights from the Release: • "Commodity prices have moved sharply higher since April, particularly energy prices. • Canadian GDP is projected to grow by 1.0 per cent in 2008, 2.3 per cent in 2009, and 3.3 per cent in 2010. • Higher energy prices will push total CPI inflation temporarily above target, peaking in the first quarter of 2009, but core inflation will remain well contained. • Total CPI inflation is projected to converge to the core rate of inflation at the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2009. • There are significant risks to the base-case projection. These are viewed to be balanced. • The Bank judges that the current level of the policy rate remains appropriate."
7/17	11:15am	BOC Governor Carney Speaks
		Provided by: Bank of Canada Official Release: Speech From the Release: "In the Update, the Bank described three major developments affecting the Canadian economy: protracted weakness in the U.S. economy, ongoing turbulence in global financial markets, and sharp increases in certain commodity prices, particularly energy. While the first two of these developments are evolving roughly in line with expectations, many commodity prices continue to outpace earlier expectations, which has altered the outlook for global and domestic inflation... Assuming energy prices follow current futures prices, total CPI inflation is projected to rise temporarily above 4 per cent, peaking in the first quarter of 2009. As energy prices stabilize, and with medium-term inflation expectations remaining well anchored, total inflation is projected to converge to the core rate of inflation, at the 2 per cent target, in the second half of 2009. Core inflation is projected to remain well contained... Against this backdrop, the Bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate – 3 per cent – remains appropriate. We will continue to monitor carefully the evolution of risks, together with economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term."
7/18	8:30am	Wholesale Sales	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%
		For April Provided by: StatCan Official Release: News Release From the Release: "The value and volume of wholesale trade rose in May, due in large part to higher global demand for agricultural chemical products. Current dollar wholesale trade rose 1.6% to $44.2 billion in May, the fourth gain in the last five months. When removing the effect of price changes, sales in constant dollars increased by 0.7% in May. Overall, six of seven wholesale sectors reported higher sales values, with the only decline coming from the automotive sector. Both motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts and accessories fell. Since February 2008, the trend in current dollar wholesale trade has been slightly upwards. This follows a period, from July 2007 to February 2008, where sales had been trending gradually down, largely as a result of a slowdown in exports of motor vehicles and lumber. The "other products" sector, which consists primarily of agricultural fertilizers and supplies, chemicals, recycled materials and paper products, recorded its strongest gain this year as current dollar sales rose 9.5% to $6.4 billion in May. Sales of agricultural chemicals such as fertilizers were particularly strong, reflecting strong global demand for these products."
7/18	8:30am	Leading Indicators	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
		For June Provided by: StatCan Official Release: News Release From the Release: "The composite leading index was unchanged in June after increases of 0.1% in April and 0.2% in May. Both new orders for manufactured goods and the housing index turned down, after exceptional gains the month before. Elsewhere, household spending remained the driving force behind growth, a reflection of strong labour market conditions. Consumer spending on durable goods continued to grow strongly so far this year. Average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4% since June 2007, twice the rate of inflation from May 2007 to May 2008. The downturn in the housing index followed a sharp turnaround in May. Manufacturing remained mixed. The drop in new orders continues its seesaw pattern of recent months. This volatility partly originates in the growing importance in manufacturing of the aerospace industry, where orders also tend to fluctuate markedly from month to month. Inventories levelled off, and higher output in April suggests firms at least temporarily were satisfied with the ratio of stocks to shipments. The average workweek also stabilized in May and June, and employment growth at factories resumed in these two months. The leading index for the United States fell 0.1%, its smallest decline since October 2007. Gains in manufacturing orders helped offset lower consumer confidence and building permits."
7/22	8:30am	Retail Sales	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%
		Monthly Rate for May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: News Release Sales y/y: 2.8% Retail sales were up 0.4% in May, slower than the pace in April, and slightly below expectations. Sales were up 2.8% compared to a year ago. The report showed that the biggest jump came as a result of sales in the auto sector, largely on a 2.4% increase in gasoline stations sales. Thats a direct result of higher gasoline prices, and doesn't reflect much expansion in the sector. Sales of new vehicles was up 0.3%. Sales of building and outdoor home supplies were another big contributor, climbing 0.7%. The Loonie fell back to the 1.0050 level against the greenback as the weaker retail sales, strong comments from the Fed's Plosser, and a drop in oil prices worked to pressure the Canadian Dollar. From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose 0.4% in May to $35.8 billion. This was the seventh increase in eight months. The advance was primarily attributable to increased sales at gasoline stations, largely owing to significantly higher gasoline prices (+8.8%) in May compared with April 2008. If the effects of price changes are removed, retail sales in constant dollars rose by only 0.1%. Sales in the automotive sector posted a strong 1.1% increase in May, the sixth rise in eight months. Although sales were up in all three components of this sector, the largest sales increase occurred at gasoline stations (+2.4%). Sales in the building and outdoor home supplies stores sector rose 0.7%, the second increase in eight months. After growing steadily since early 2005, sales in this sector have remained relatively stable since mid-2007. Among the three sectors where sales did not increase, the most pronounced drop occurred in clothing and accessories stores (-0.7%). The decrease in this sector stemmed from weak sales in clothing stores (-1.1%), while sales at shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores rose 0.9% following five consecutive monthly declines."
7/22	8:30am	Retail Sales excl. Autos	0.4%	0.7%	1.1%
7/23	7:00am	Consumer Price Index m/m	0.7%	0.5%	1.0%
		For June Provided by: StatCan Official Release: News Release CPI y/y: 3.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 2.2% (May), 1.7% (Apr) BOC Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.3% (May), 0.3% (Apr) BOC Core CPI y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.5% (May), 1.5% (Apr) The annual inflation rate jumped to 3.1% in June, from May's 2.2%. The gains were primarily pushed up by gasoline prices, which reinforces the retail sales data which showed Canadians spending more to drive. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.7% from May to June, cooler than May's 1.0%, but higher than forecasts of a 0.5% change. The core rate was only up 0.1%, as energy is up 4.4% on the month and 18% on the year. Such high gas prices will cause consumers to limit spending on other goods, possibly weakening the economy. From the Release: "Fueled by higher gasoline prices, consumer prices rose 3.1% in the 12-months ending June 2008, compared with the 2.2% gain recorded in May. June's increase was the largest since September 2005. Consumer prices excluding gasoline rose 1.8% in the 12 months to June. Gasoline prices increased 26.9% between June 2007 and June 2008, significantly higher than the 15.0% advance posted in May. June's increase was the largest since the 34.7% gain reported for September 2005, when hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted the oil market. June's increase reflected both recent increases in pump prices, as well as the fact that gasoline prices had been on the decline in June 2007. In addition to gasoline prices, mortgage interest cost, bakery products and air transportation also exerted strong upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June." USD/CAD - Greenback Strength Matches Loonie's Boost From CPI Data: The USD/CAD saw some Loonie strength following the CPI data but it stalled near 1.0060, and the greenback recovered back above the 1.01 level.
7/23	7:00am	CPI excl. Volatile Items	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
7/30	8:30am	Producer Price Index m/m	1.3%	1.0%	0.9% 0.6%
		Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) for June Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: Press Release PPI y/y: 5.4%, pr. 2.7% r (May), 1.0% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar) RMPI m/m: 4.4%, forecast 3.0%, pr. 3.1% (May), 5.1% (Apr), 6.7% (Mar) Producer prices rose 1.3% in June, more than expected and May's figure was revised up to show a 0.9% gain compared to the 0.6% originally reported. Higher oil and coal product, rose 6.1% in June, and were the main contributors to increased prices. Still that rate is slower than the advances seen the last 3 months, which were just over 8.0%, the report said. The annual rate of inflation jumped to 5.4%, twice the rate of growth posted in May (2.7% revised from 2.4%). Excluding petroleum and coal products would knock that number down to an annual change of 0.4%. Even though higher oil prices help the value of the Canadian Dollar, since its a main export, Canadian companies still face the same high costs for energy the rest of the world is, and that is shining through in this data. Higher inflation data usually leads to a strengthening of a currency as the central bank is more likely to look to raise interest rates. However today's data came amid a US Dollar rally thanks to a better than expected US jobs report which gave the USD/CAD pair a boost in favor of the greenback. From the Release: "In June, the significant increase in price for petroleum pushed up the price index for manufactured goods by 1.3% from May and 5.4% from a year ago. The price index for raw materials was also affected, rising 4.4% from May and 31.9% from a year ago. Prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 1.3% between May and June, up from the 0.9% increase a month earlier. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) continued its upward trend with an increase of 4.4% in June, up from the 3.1% rise in May. The advance of the RMPI in June was driven mainly by strong prices for mineral fuels, mainly crude oil, which rose for a fourth consecutive month. If mineral fuels were excluded, the RMPI would have fallen 1.4% in June, a slower rate of decline than May's drop of 1.9%."
7/30	8:30am	Raw Materials Price Index	4.4%	3.0%	3.1%
7/31	8:30am	Gross Domestic Product	-0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
		For the month of May Provided by: Statistics Canada Official Release: Press Release From the Release: "Economic activity continued its seesaw pattern of recent months, as real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% in May after rising 0.4% in April. There was a significant decrease in the energy sector in May. Declines were also recorded in finance, forestry, construction and wholesale trade. Conversely, manufacturing, retail trade and the public sector advanced."

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Central Bank Watch - Latest Bank of Canada Decision

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October
21st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.25%

2.00%

2.50%

N/A

Provided by: Bank of Canada
Official Statement: Press Release

From the Release: "Three major interrelated developments are having a profound impact on the Canadian economy. First, the intensification of the global financial crisis has led to severe strains in financial markets. The associated need for the global banking sector to continue to reduce leverage will restrain growth for some time. Second, the global economy appears to be heading into a mild recession, led by a U.S. economy already in recession. Third, there have been sharp declines in many commodity prices. The outlook for growth and inflation in Canada is now more uncertain than usual.

In the face of diminished inflationary pressures, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by 50 basis points on 8 October, acting in concert with other major central banks. This extraordinary move, combined with today's announcement, brings the cumulative reduction in our target for the overnight rate to 75 basis points since the Bank's last fixed announcement date. These actions provide timely and significant support to the Canadian economy. The cumulative reduction in the Bank's policy rate since last December is now 225 basis points.

In line with the new outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The evolution of the financial crisis, its impact on the global economy and the timing of the effects of the various extraordinary measures being taken to address it pose significant risks to the projection on both the upside and the downside."

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Central Bank Watch - Bank Officials' Comments

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November 01 (BOC Governor Dodge) -- The Canadian dollar has seen some selling pressures stemming from comments over the weekend by Bank of Canada Governor Dodge. Speaking to reporters at the G-20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in South Africa, Dodge said that financial market volatility and downside risks to the world economy have increased since early October, and that this "clearly poses a risk that we are going to have to take into account when setting our own policy.

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Economic and Financial Profile

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Exports Oil and Commodities:

The Canadian Dollar is influenced by prices for oil and other commodities. Canada is the 12th largest exporter of oil in the world (1.1 mil barrels per day), with most of it going to the United States. The country is also the 7th largest producer of oil (3.3 m. b. per day) which it uses domestically. It is also a world leader in the production of gold, nickel, uranium, diamonds, and lead. A strong rise of the price of oil and commodities has helped boost appreciation of the Canadian Dollar, especially in Sept/Oct 2007. This can be seen in longer term too.

Closely Tied To United States:

The Canadian Dollar is strongly impacted by economic conditions in the United States, as the U.S. is Canada's main trading partner in terms of exports (80%) and imports (66%). A downturn in US spending means less activity for certain export industries in Canada. This cross border trade is sensitive to the exchange rates between the US and Canadian Dollars, as a stronger Canadian Dollar will make Canadian exports more expensive, and US imports cheaper for Canadian consumers.

Financial institutions in Canada are also tied to activities on Wall Street, and the performance of certain US sectors, especially banking and finance. This has been seen recently as sub-prime mortgage woes have manifest themselves on Canadian banks balance sheets and lowered the Canadian stock markets.

Appreciation vs the Dollar:

The Loonie, a nickname for the Canadian Dollar, hit a record low versus the Dollar in 2002. At that time 1 US Dollar was worth C$1.58. The last 5 years have changed thing dramatically as the currencies hit parity in September 2007, and in November '07, the exchange rate stood at 1 US dollar = C$.905. The Loonie had appreciated 42% in that span gains accelerating during 2007. This strong appreciation was a result of American currency and economic weakness and high prices for Canadian exports such as oil, gas, and metals.

This figure is a monthly chart, of the USD/CAD pair. Prices moving upward favor the strength of the US Dollar (the top currency in the USD/CAD quote). When prices move down they favor the Canadian Dollar (the bottom currency in the pair).