For September
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 0.5%, pr. 2.0% (rev from 1.0% - Aug), 3.6% (Jul),
7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

Services sector activity contracted for a sixth successive month in September, although the rate of decline eased for the first time since May.

From the Release:
■ "Firms pointed to instability in global financial markets and Australia's soft building sector as factors restricting services activity.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) rose 5.6 points to 44.9, but remained below the key 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.
■ Activity grew in the transport & storage and personal & recreational services sectors, but continued to fall in the other seven services sectors.
■ Lower petrol prices and a reduction in the official interest rate at the beginning of the month contributed to the softer contraction in services activity.
■ Activity fell in all states, although the rate of contraction only worsened in Queensland."

For October
Provided by: Westpac Melbourne Institute
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 11% in October
from 92.2 in September to 82 in October.

Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, commented, "The survey was conducted prior to yesterday's announcement by the Reserve Bank that the overnight cash rate is to be cut by an extraordinary 100 bp's. The survey results are therefore relevant for assessing the confidence of consumers prior to this stunning good news. As indicated by the double digit fall in the Index a strong positive message was required from the Reserve Bank.

“Since the stock market crash in 1987 we have only had nine months when the Index has fallen by more than 11%. They were usually associated with interest rate or petrol price increases. On two occasions – the 1987 stock market crash (down by 15.7% in November 1987) and the bursting of the dot com bubble (down by 13.2% in March 2001) – major global events drove the large falls. We can now safely put the recent turbulence in financial markets in a similar category for its impact on the confidence of Australian households. The Index is now only 3.8% above the 16 year lows it reached in July when it was being assaulted by rising interest rates and petrol prices."

For August
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute

Australia's leading index fell in August, posting a 0.1% decline. The annual rate of the index slowed to 2.5% from 3.3% in July. The economy, which has been in economic expansion for 17 years, is feeling the strain of consumers and businesses limiting their spending as the outlook deteriorates. High interest rates, that have only recently began to come down, along with high inflation has cut into purchasing power. Unemployment is rising outside the export sector, and the housing market has stalled. With global growth slowing, demand for commodities, a key export for Australia will also pressure growth.

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Import Prices y/y: 9.6%, pr. 3.5% (2Q), 2.2% (1Q), -2.2% (4Q '07)
Export Prices q/q: 13.8%, pr. 13.5% (2Q), 3.5% (1Q), -0.6% (4Q '07)
Export Prices y/y: 32.9%, pr. 13.3% (2Q), 0.1% (1Q), -3.2% (4Q '07)

From the Releaes:

"IMPORT PRICE INDEX

• The Import Price Index increased by 5.0% in the September quarter 2008. The increase was mainly driven by rises in prices paid for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+12.1%), fertilisers (excluding crude) (+35.7%) and inorganic chemicals (+46.3%). These rises were partly offset by falls in prices paid for telecommunications equipment (-1.7%). Through the year to September quarter 2008, the Import Price Index increased by 9.6%. This is the largest annual increase since March quarter 2001.

• The Export Price Index increased by 13.8% in the September quarter 2008 and 32.9% through the year to September 2008. This is the largest quarterly and annual increase in the current Export Price Index since the series began in the September quarter 1974. The increase this quarter was mainly driven by rises in prices received for coal, coke and briquettes (+69.7%), metalliferous ores and scrap metal (+7.7%) and gas, natural and manufactured (+14.4%). These increases were partly offset by falls in prices received for non-ferrous metals (-5.6%) and petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (-1.5%)."

Meeting Minutes from October 7th
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Minutes

From the Release: "Although the September quarter CPI, to be released before the next meeting, was likely to show an increase of around 5 per cent over the year, members noted that the current staff forecast was for inflation to start to decline in 2009. Moreover, the recent deterioration in global growth prospects, together with the more difficult market conditions even for creditworthy borrowers, increased the risk that demand and output could be significantly weaker than earlier expected. In that scenario, inflation would most likely fall faster than expected previously.

In view of the latest economic and financial market developments, members judged that the material change to the balance of risks surrounding the outlook for growth and inflation in Australia meant that a significantly less restrictive stance of monetary policy was now appropriate. It was acknowledged that the current level of interest rates meant that monetary policy had significant capacity to provide stimulus.

In assessing the recommendation, members observed that an easing of 100 basis points would bring forward some of the easing markets had already priced in for following months. The increased downside risks to growth and the improved prospects for lower inflation meant that there was a strong economic case to do so. As staff estimates suggested that banks’ funding costs had risen by about 20–25 basis points relative to relevant benchmarks, any reduction in interest rates that banks announced on loans to customers would most likely be less than the change in the cash rate by a similar margin.

The Board considered the possibility that a larger-than-expected easing of 100 basis points could have a negative effect on market sentiment. The exchange rate in particular had fallen sharply over the preceding 24 hours. Members concluded that, despite the possibility of a short-term adverse reaction, stronger action would help sentiment over time.

Taking careful note of all those considerations, the Board decided that, on this occasion, a reduction in the cash rate of 100 basis points was appropriate. Members did not regard this unusually large adjustment as establishing a pattern for future monetary policy decisions."

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: National Australian Bank (NAB)
Release: Quarterly Business Survey

Business Confidence: -7, pr. -8 (2Q), -4 (1Q)
Business Conditions: -4, pr. 7 (2Q) , 13 (1Q)

The NAB's quarterly business survey for Q3 showed business confitions plunge to 2001 levels. The confidence index did edge up to -7 from June quarter's -8, but the business conditions index dropped 11 points. Drop in stocks as well as lower house prices have been negative factors to wealth. Thinning employment demand clearly reflects anticipation of a global recession. The trend has been a steady decline throughout the year, as business conditions and confidence were initially dragged by surging inflation. Now the realization of the global slowdown and the depth of credit turmoil continues to pressure the business climate and outlooks.

For September
Provided by: Bank of Australia

y/y: 10.1%, forecast 9.6%, pr. 10.5% (Aug), 11.2% (Jul), 11.7% (Jun),
13.4% (May)