Australia Country Profile - Economy, Currency, Central Bank, Canadian Dollar, CAD

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Introduction

Australia is the 15th largest economy with GDP valued at USD 755 billion, and a population of 21 million. The economy is dominated by services, though agriculture and mining industries play a very important role, with manufacturing trailing as an engine of growth. Commodities make up around 65% of Australia's exports, with Japan and China being the two largest trading partners. The interest rate is at 6.5%, making the Australian Dollar a target for carry trade, in which the yen's low interest rate is used to finance investment in the higher yielding Australian currency. High prices for commodities and carry trade have boosted the value of the Aussie in 2007.

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Australia's Fundamental Indicators and Chart

Monthly Data for August, 2008

Date	EST	Indicator	Actual	Forecast	Previous
8/1	2:30am	RBA Commodity Index y/y	41.1%		36.5%
		For July Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Commodity Index m/m: 3.6%, pr. 7.9% (Jun), pr. 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)
8/3	9:30pm	House Price Index q/q	-0.3%	-1.1%	0.4% 1.1%
		For 2nd Quarter Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics HPI y/y: 8.2%, pr. 13.8% (1Q), 13.8% (4Q) Australian housing prices fell in the 2nd quarter, registering a -0.3% change compared to the 1st quarter. Its the first time housing prices have shown a quarterly decline in almost 3 years, though forecasts had called for an even bigger decline. Compared to a year ago prices are up 8.2%, a slowdown from the 13.8% seen in the 1st quarter. Recent data suggests the housing market is straining as a result of the highest borrowing costs in 12 years. The economy as a whole is cooling as high interest rates choke inflation which is running above the RBA's target range of 2% of 3%. AUD/JPY - Aussie Pares Some of Last Week's Losses vs Yen: Both the Aussie and Kiwi were up on the Japanese Yen overnight, which cut into some of the steep falls seen in the pair last week. Today the Aussie rallied about 100 pips from its open.
8/4	7:30pm	Services PMI	42.8		45.4
		For July (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG) Official Release: PDF From the Releaes: ■ "Services sector activity slumped further in July, with declining levels of consumer and business confidence further restraining household spending and business activity. ■ Firms continue to identify high interest rates and fuel prices as the key factors holding back demand for services. ■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) fell 2.6 points to 42.8, below the key 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction. ■ New orders and supplier deliveries contracted for a fourth consecutive month, while sales and employment deteriorated at a faster pace. ■ The weakness in activity was broadly-based, although there were signs of resilience in the personal & recreational services and communications services sectors. ■ Activity fell in all states, with the rate of contraction slowing in only Tasmania and Queensland."
8/5	12:30am	RBA Interest Rate Statement	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Official Release: Statement The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 7.25%. The Boards reported that "as a result of increases in the cash rate last year and early this year, additional rises in market interest rates and tougher credit standards, there has been a substantial tightening in financial conditions since the middle of 2007." This has led to a slowdown in demand, in conjunction with rising fuel costs, lowers asset values. The Bank opened the door for loosening policy as it believes slower demand will work to bring down inflation. The Aussie fell to its rivals in the 15 minutes following the release, as the implications is for rate cuts to come in the future. From the Release: "Given the opposing forces at work, considerable uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for demand and inflation. On balance, however, it is looking more likely that demand will remain subdued, and economic growth will be fairly slow, over the period ahead. Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, with the CPI affected by high global oil prices. Looking further ahead, inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time, given the outlook for demand, provided wages growth remains moderate. The Bank’s forecast remains that inflation will fall below 3 per cent during 2010. Weighing up the available domestic and international information, the Board judged that the cash rate should remain unchanged this month. Nonetheless, with demand slowing, the Board’s view is that scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing." AUD/JPY - Aussie Weakens Following RBA Statement, Carry Trade Retreats: The Aussie sank following the news against its rivals. The Aussie-Yen, a big destination for carry trade fell 160 pips following the statement finding support near 98.70. The prospect of RBA cuts in the future is a quick turnaround from a few months ago and has brought this pair down 500 pips in the last 2 weeks.
8/5	9:30pm	Home Loans m/m	-3.7%	-2.1%	-6.9% -7.9
		For June Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Home Loans y/y pr. -3.6% The number of home-loan approvals fell to a four-year low in June, declining 3.7% from May. It seems that the Australian housing sector is catching the same bug already afflicting the US and the UK. Banks are cutting back on lending in 2008, and consumers, racked by high borrowing costs are unable to get financing that meets their terms. Prices have started backtracking. On Sunday, the quarterly house price index showed a 0.3% decline, the first in nearly 3 years. With the economy entering a period of moderation in growth, housing activity will only be pressured further. A weaker housing market will work the other way as well, as consumers already under siege from higher energy and food costs may cut back spending in the face of withering prospects for selling their homes. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already signaled that it will move to lower rates, which is pressuring the Aussie as it continues its slide vs the US Dollar. In the last 10 sessions the pair has declined from 0.9800 to 0.9100.
8/6	7:30pm	Construction PMI	41.6		40.3
		For July Provided by: Australian Industry Group Official Release: PDF From the Release: ■"The national construction industry contracted for a fifth consecutive month in July, although the rate of decline continued to moderate, due mainly to stronger engineering construction activity. ■ The Australian Industry Group/ Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) registered 41.6 in July 2008, remaining below the critical 50.0 points level separating expansion from contraction. ■ The further decline in the overall performance of the industry reflected on-going weakness in the house, apartment, and commercial construction sectors. Firms experiencing declines in activity linked this to higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, heightened risk aversion, and low consumer and investor confidence."
8/6	9:30pm	Employment Change	10.9K	5.0K	22.2K 29.8K
		For July - Seasonally Adjusted Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics The Australian economy created 10,900 new jobs in July, above the forecast of a 5,000 gain. However, the figures for last month were revised down, and as more people enter the workforce the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. June's figure was revised up to show a 4.3% unemployment rate. The new jobs were mostly created in the mining sector which is expanding as a result of strong orders for commodities. Unempl. Rate: 4.3%, forecast 4.3%, pr. 4.3% (rev from 4.2%)
8/6	9:30pm	Unemployment Rate	4.3%	4.3%	4.3% 4.2%
		For July - Seasonally Adjusted Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics The unemployment rate for July was 4.3%, which remains steady compared to the upwardly revised figure for July. This means the labor market in Australia was weaker last month than expected, and today's forecast of an increase to 4.3%, already happened last month. The RBA looks ready to act in order to counter a sharp drop-off in the economy, which it may be seeing. Though the export industry should remain doing well, other sectors of the Australian economy may start feeling the strain of consumers less willing to spend. See "Employment Change" above for further commentary.
8/10	9:30pm	RBA Quarterly Statement
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Official Release: Statement With several forces aligning to produce a "significant moderation in the domestic economy" the central bank sees "scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy." From the Release: "Inflation in Australia has remained high in the recent period against a background of tight capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time. Recent indications are that a significant moderation in domestic demand is now occurring. In addition to the effects of tighter financial conditions, other factors including a slowing in global growth, declining asset markets and higher fuel costs are acting to restrain domestic spending and activity. At the same time, high global commodity prices are adding to Australia’s terms of trade, and this is providing a significant countervailing influence. Prospects for growth of the Australian economy and for inflation will continue to depend on the net effects flowing from these opposing forces... In its recent policy deliberations, the Board has focused on both the risk that inflation may remain uncomfortably high, and on the accumulating evidence of a slowing in domestic demand and activity. Given the earlier background of strong growth in domestic spending and increasing pressure on productive capacity, the Board has for some time been seeking to restrain demand, and this has required a period of quite restrictive monetary policy. The evidence to date is that a significant moderation in demand is now occurring, and it is looking more likely that demand will remain subdued, and economic growth will be fairly slow, in the period ahead. While inflation is likely to remain high in the short term, the Board judged at its August meeting that demand was slowing to an extent that could be expected to bring about a significant reduction in inflation over time. On this basis the Board decided that the existing monetary policy setting was appropriate for the time being. On the assumption that the subdued demand conditions are likely to continue, scope to move to a less restrictive monetary policy stance in the period ahead is increasing. The Board will continue to monitor developments and make adjustments as required in order to promote sustainable growth consistent with the medium-term inflation target of 2–3 per cent."
8/11	9:30pm	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-9
		For July Provided by: National Australian Bank Official Release: PDF Bus. Conditions: -5, pr. 0 (Jun), 7 (May), 7 (Apr), 7 (Mar), 11 (Feb), 13 (Jan) The National Australian Bank (NAB) Survey of business conditions slumped again in July, falling 5 points to -5. That continues a clear trend since January of falling conditions. Business confidence stayed at a lowly -9. The slowdown that has gripped the country and caused the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a dovish approach continues through July. With activity cooling it may finally put the brakes on inflation which has been fueled by rising energy costs but also an economy roaring due to its commodity exports. The report suggests the RBA will cut 50 basis points before the end of 2008 and 125 points over the next year. From the Release: "Business conditions sharply lower again in July – and rapidly approaching 2001 lows. Implying demand growth has already slowed to near (or below) 1% on an annualised basis. Forward orders continue to deteriorate and confidence remains at 1991 levels. Capacity utilisation again sharply lower & labour market deteriorates as intentions weaken. Wages growth a touch higher but sharply higher purchase costs push inflation higher. Global and local GDP forecasts unchanged – at 2¾% and 2¼% respectively in 2009, but downside risks build. Speed of local slowing unexpected and somewhat unnerving. RBA focus turns to redressing overly tight policy. Rate cuts brought forward. Nab expects at least 50 points before end 2008 and at least 125 points over the next year."
8/12	8:30pm	WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m	9.1%		-6.7%
		For Aug Provided by: Westpac Melbourne Institute Official Media Release: PDF Consumer sentiment rebounded in August climbing by 9.1% to put the index at 86.2 for August from 79 in July. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said a fall in petrol prices during the past month made consumers more confident. This is the third biggest jump in the Index in the last five years but it comes as no surprise. Apart from the last few months this is still the lowest read in the Index since June 1993. From the Release:"People clearly felt some relief about their finances emphasizing just how sensitive family budgets have become to petrol prices," he said. "We are confident that the two most important variables which influence consumer sentiment are interest rates and petrol prices. In fact petrol prices have been the key driver of the Index since April. Over the three months from April to July mortgage rates were broadly steady but the Index fell by 10.1% to its lowest level since 1992. During that period petrol prices rose by 15%. Since the last Survey in July we have seen a very welcome 8% fall in petrol prices. We expect that the 9% surge in the Index has mainly been due to that sharp fall in petrol prices." he said. Oil prices have dropped almost 23% from their high near $147 a barrel on July 12. The RBA has also signaled it will lower rates as its next move, so consumers may be breathing a small sign of relief. The Aussie was caught up in selling as the Yen strengthened on a scaling back of carry-trade.
8/12	9:30pm	Wage Price Index q/q	1.2%	1.0%	0.9%
		For 2nd Quarter Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics WPI y/y: 4.2%, forecast 4.1%, pr. 4.1% (1Q), 4.2% (4th Q), 4.2% (3rd Q) The Bureau of Statistics showed that wages exluding bonuses grew 1.2% in the June quarter, the biggest quarterly rise since the series began in 1997. Analysts see the central bank noting the annual increase of 4.2, which is within a manageable and familiar range and does not pose an inflation threa.
8/18	9:30pm	RBA Meeting Minutes
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Official Release: Minutes From the Release: "The recommendation to the Board was to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. In evaluating the recommendation, members noted that there had clearly been a significant change in trend in household demand over the preceding few months. Tight financial conditions, high petrol prices and declining asset values were all contributing factors, though petrol prices had recently declined somewhat and tax cuts had taken effect. A range of business surveys suggested that conditions across most sectors had also moderated, though the slowing seemed milder than in the case of household activity... Members continued to see considerable uncertainty about the outlook for demand and inflation, as the economy remained subject to powerful forces pulling in opposite directions. Tighter financial conditions were causing the economy to slow but, on the other hand, the rise in the terms of trade would continue to add substantially to national income and capacity to spend... First, a lengthy period of inflation above the target was occurring, with attendant risk that this would begin to affect wage setting, though there was no evidence of this in aggregate wages data to date. If that occurred, the cost of reducing inflation later would be greater. Policy had to take account of this risk, particularly given both the recent high CPI reading and those in prospect in the near term. This argued for maintaining the current stance of policy. Second, members were conscious that financial conditions were clearly quite tight, and effectively getting tighter as a result of ongoing pressure on lenders’ cost of funds in the market. Given there had been a significant change in borrowing behaviour, confidence was weaker, asset prices had declined and slower overall growth was in prospect, tighter financial conditions were not warranted. Indeed, less restrictive conditions could soon be called for, otherwise the risk of a deeper and more persistent slowing in the economy would increase. On these considerations, a case could be made for an early reduction in the cash rate. Weighing up all these considerations, members judged that the current stance of policy was appropriate for the time being. Nonetheless, given the slower trend in demand, scope to move towards a less restrictive setting of monetary policy was judged to be increasing."
8/19	8:30pm	WMI Leading Index	0.1%		0.0%
		For June Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Official Release: Press Release From the Release: "“The growth rate in the Coincident Index has now been below trend February 2008. The margin continues to widen as the Index signals weak current growth pointing to a very soft quarter for the economy in June. The level of the Coincident Index rose by 0.3 points (0.1%). Weak real retail trade (down by 1.2%) was countered by a 0.2% increase in employment. The Reserve bank Board next meets on September 2. Markets are confidently predicting a rate cut and we concur. Communication from the Bank, beginning with Governor's Statement; the Statement on Monetary Policy and the August Board Minutes has made an increasingly strong case for a rate cut. Markets and commentators are predicting a 0.25% first move. Our view is that the first move in an easing cycle should be larger than the average once the case has been made to move. With rates well into the contractionary zone and global liquidity conditions deteriorating there is a strong case for a larger first cut of 0.5%. That seems a more effective strategy than current market expectations of two consecutive 0.25% moves. The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 2.0% in June, well below its long term trend of 3.9%. The annualised growth rate of the Coincident Index was 2.4%, also below its long term trend of 3.7%. Westpac's Chief Economist, Bill Evans commented, "This is the slowest growth rate of the Index since July 2001 and the sharpest fall in the growth rate since 2000. This theme has been a consistent aspect of the Leading Index since growth in the Index fell below trend in February this year. That was the first time growth had been significantly below trend since October 2005."
8/20	9:30pm	New Motor Vehicle Sales	-3.4%		1.0%
		For July (s.a) Provided by the: Australian Bureau of Statistics Current Release: Indicator Page Sales y/y: pr. 1.4% Total Sales: pr. 88, 917
8/20	9:30pm	RBA Bulletin
		Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia Official Release: PDF
8/26	9:30pm	Construction Work Done q/q	-2.6%	1.5%	5.0% 2.3%
		For 2nd Quarter Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Construction work done fell in the second quarter to a total value of AU$30.137B from an upwardly revised AU$30.967B, a decline of 2.6%. This headline change is exagerrated because 1st quarter figures were revised up twice as much as first estimated. Still, the numbers were below forecasts of a 1.5% gain. This indicator has been cyclical from quarter to quarter since Q3 2007, going up one quarter only to be followed with a decline. The trend estimate rose 0.7% in the June quarter.Residential building work rose 0.1%, while non-residential fell 0.6%, and the trend estimate for building work done fell 0.2%. the only other component, engingeering work, rose 1.7%, while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 6.0%. Australia's housing market has seen some deceleration of growth, but basically avoided the arms of the US subprime meltdown. House prices have been maintained, although home loans are harder to come by because of credit conditions and high borrowing cost. There is somewhat of a contraction in the housing market, but it is not alarming.
8/27	8:00pm	Leading Index	-0.5%		-0.1%
		For June Provided by: The Conference Board Official Release: Press Release The Conference Board consumer confidence index declined again in June, posting a 0.5% decrease. This is the year's 5th monthly decline. Four of the seven leading indicators increased, led by money supply and building approvals. However declines in share prices, rural goods exports and yield spreads outweighed the gains and pulled down the index -0.5%. The coincident indicators were split with 2 components up and other 2 down as the index was unchanged. From the release: The leading index has been on a moderate downtrend since the start of the year, after rising steadily in the second half of 2007. Meanwhile, the coincident index has been flat in recent months, and is only slightly higher than its level in January. At the same time, real GDP growth has slowed sharply — to a 2.6 percent average annual rate for the first quarter of 2008 and the fourth quarter of 2007, down from a 4.7 percent average annual rate in the previous two quarters. All in all, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth should slow further in the near term.
8/27	9:30pm	Private New Capital Expenditure q/q	5.7%	2.0%	1.0% -2.5%
		For 2nd Quarter (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Capital Expenditure y/y: 8.1%, pr. 4.6% (1Q), 15.3% (4Q '07) Capital expenditure rose 5.7% in the June quarter, after a positively revised first quarter, and beat forecasts of a 2.0% gain. Australia so far seems to have avoided any major hiccups in the financial system that the US had been having. This slightly brightens the outlook for the economy, and somewhat lessens the pressure for the RBA to cut rates. On the other hand, weak numbers from the rest of the economy such as this week's poor construction numbers and worsened leading index suggest a rate cut is warranted.
8/28	9:30pm	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
		For July Provided by: Bank of Australia y/y: 11.2%, forecast 11.1%, pr. 11.7% (Jun), 13.4% (May) Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediatries rose 0.5% in July, but cooled to a rate of 11.% on the year. This followed a 0.4% gain in June. Housing credit rose 0.5% in July, and 9.8% on the year. Other personal credit was down 0.7%, and up 3.0% on the year. Business credit was up 0.7%, and 15% on the year.
8/31	7:30pm	Manufacturing PMI	47.0		46.9
		For August Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG) Official Release: PDF From the Release ■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a third consecutive month in August. Tighter financial conditions have driven an easing of consumer demand and weaker housing construction, which have reduced demand for manufactures. Manufacturing is also being buffeted by weaker global growth, rising input costs and the still high Australian dollar. ■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® rose marginally in August, by 0.1 points to 47.0, to remain below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. ■ Production and employment fell again in August, though at a slightly slower rate than in July. New orders fell for a fourth consecutive month, putting pressure on future production. Inventories and supplier deliveries were stable. Exports fell. ■ Input costs grew strongly again in August while selling price growth accelerated. Wage increases eased in August but remained solid. Capacity utilisation declined moderately. ■ Manufacturers again cited positive effects on activity from infrastructure and mining related demand. Key negatives were: a weak retail sector; soft housing construction; raw material costs and shortages, especially steel; and import competition."
8/31	8:30pm	TDMI Inflation Gauge	0.1%		0.4%
		For August Provided by: Melbourne Institute (Subscription Required) Inflation Gauge y/y: 4.2%, pr. 4.6% (Jul), pr. 4.8% (Jun), 4.5% (May), 4.3% (Apr), pr. 4.0% (Mar) TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose 0.1% in August and was up 4.2% over the year. That's the 3rd month were the pace of growth decelerated. It had been 4.8% in June, then 4.6% in July. Prices this month were pushed up by fruits and vegetables, insurance, gas and other household fuels. Cheaper gasoline actually offset some of those gains. If gasoline prices were excluded, inflation on the month would have risen a 0.6% on the month. The Reserve Bank of Australia, and its Governor Stevens has a target of inflation between 2-3%, but inflation has been above 4% since March. Still, the RBA must be heartened by the deceleration of the annual rate, though some core price pressures were masked by a fall in gasoline prices. Expectations are for a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate it completes its meeting tomorrow (Tues. at 12:30 AM EST). That should be the start of a cutting campaign that can bring rates down around 1 percentage point in the next 12 months. Stevens hopes that as the economy eases, inflation will as well. The Aussie slid overnight vs. the Dollar and Yen.
8/31	9:30pm	Current Account	-12.8B	-11.8B	-19.8B -19.5B
		2nd Quarter Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australia's current account deficit shrank considerably in the 2nd quarter, falling from a downwardly revised A$-19.8B in the 1st quarter to A$-12.8B in the 2nd quarter. That figure disappointed forecasts, but it does bring the current account to its lowest level since the 4th quarter of 2006. Exports of minerals helped boost the trade deficit, as demand from China for coal and iron ore helped boost export income. The RBA has mentioned before how trade should continue to help support the economy due to increased demand and rising commodity prices. Domestically, consumers are facing tougher economic condition due to higher prices and high interest rates, so they are cutting back on imports and also domestic retail. A cut back in imports should serve to further help the trade balance and the current account in the 3rd quarter.
8/31	9:30pm	Company Operating Profits q/q	14.3%	2.5%	3.1% 2.2%
		For 2nd Quarter (s.a.) Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics Company Profits y/y: 21.5%, pr. 7.0% (1Q '08) Inventories s.a. q/q: 0.3%, forecast 0.6%, pr 1.5% r (0.8%) (1Q '08), Operating profits in Australia surged in the 2nd quarter, boosted by strong activity in the export industry. It was the largest jump in profits in more than seven years, but the gains were concentrated heavily in mining. Commodities such as iron ore, coal, crude oil, and different metals have seen strong demand, from China especially, even as that demand drives prices higher for all these goods. Mining companies like BHP Billiton Ltd and Rio Tinto Group have posted jumps of 30% in second-half profits as they capitilize and increase production. However, with the economy as a whole succumbing to the pressures of higher inflation and high interest rates, central bank Governor Glenn Stevens is likley to decide to cut the benchmark interest rate tomorrow for the first time in seven years.

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Central Bank Watch - Latest Reserve Bank of Australia Decision

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December
1st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

4.25%

4.50%

5.25%

N/A

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Statement

The RBA cut rates by 1%, bringing them to 4.25%, the lowest since December 2001. Though the Australian economy has weathered the financial storm slightly better than other economies, the slowdown is gaining steam. Therefore another large cut in the interest rate was warranted.

From the Release: "The Australian economy has been more resilient than other advanced economies, but recent data nonetheless indicate that a significant moderation in demand and activity has been occurring. With confidence affected by the financial turbulence and a decline in the terms of trade now under way, more cautious behaviour by both households and businesses is likely to see private demand remain subdued in the near term. With that outlook, and with capacity pressures now easing, it is likely that inflation in Australia will soon start to fall. Global disinflationary forces will assist in this regard, though the depreciation of the exchange rate means that the decline of inflation to the target could take longer than would otherwise have been the case.

Weighing up the international and domestic developments of recent months, the Board judged that a further significant reduction in the cash rate was warranted now, to take monetary policy to an expansionary setting. As a result of today’s decision, the cash rate will be at its previous cyclical low point. Given trends in money market yields, most lending rates should fall significantly and will also reach below-average levels.
There has now been a major easing in monetary policy over the past few months. Together with the spending measures announced by the Government, and a large fall in the Australian dollar exchange rate, significant policy stimulus will be supporting demand over the year ahead."

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