For October
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

FPI y/y: 9.9%, pr. 10.8% (Aug), 7.6% (Jul), 6.8% (Jun)

Food prices decreased 0.3% in October pushed lower by a 6% decline in prices for fruits and vegetables. The price of meat, poultry, and fish rose 2.4%. Prices for grocery food were up 0.6%. On the year, the pace of price increases decelerated from August, coming in at 9.9% compared to 10.8%.  

For September
Provided by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Official Source: Indicator Page

Demand for services such as phone calls, power and transportation fell 0.6% in September. It was the second straight month that demand for services decreased. Weaker spending by households and business on services will depress profits, forcing companies to cut payrolls, which will hit consumer spending in a vicious cycle. The economy has officially gone into recession, according to preliminary data for GDP growth.  

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Trade Balance n.s.a.: -€5.6B, pr. -€9.4B (Aug), -€2.0B (Jul), -€0.2B (Jun),
-€4.6B (May), €2.3B (Apr)
Exports: 2.2%, pr. -0.6% (Aug), 3.7% (Jul), 1.4% (Jun)
Imports: 2.1%, pr. -1.0% (Aug), 5.8% (Jul), 2.9% (Jun)

For October
Provided by: Federal Reserve

Capacity Utilization: 76.4%, forecast 76.4%, pr. 76.4% (Sep), 78.7% (Aug),
79.9% (Jul), 79.8% (Jun), 79.4% (May)

US industrial production surprised forecasts on the upside for the October period, increasing 1.3% after a downwardly revised 3.7% decrease in September. The increase in October was propelled by a 6.1% increase in mining output, as oil production operations and other facilities resumed work after being shut down because of Hurricane Ike. Factory output, which makes up four-fifths of total industrial production was up 0.6%, and utility production rose 0.4%. Today's report is a bright spot in an otherwise steady stream of negative data, but with the economy faltering, demand for heavy machinery, automobiles, computers and other goods will continue to be pressured as manufacturing suffers in the current environment.

Meeting Minutes from November 4th
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Minutes

From the Release: "Key factors in members’ consideration of the policy decision were the continuing poor conditions in financial markets, the significant deterioration in the outlook for the world economy, with implications for Australia, and the likelihood that inflation in Australia would fall over the year ahead...

In Australia, until recently, the overall path of economic activity had been roughly in line with the Board’s earlier expectations. However, the marked deterioration in global financial conditions over the past couple of months, which had also had an effect on Australian financial markets and share prices, was likely to have a significant effect as well on business and consumer sentiment, and liaison information was reflecting this. This would probably lead to a significant curtailment of planned investment spending and caution on the part of households...

Members noted that consumer price inflation in Australia was again high in the September quarter, as had been expected. However, with domestic capacity pressures now easing and the outlook for much softer growth in demand and activity than had been seen until recently, members could reasonably expect that inflation in Australia would soon start to fall. Global disinflationary forces from the slowdown in the world economy and lower commodity prices would assist in this regard...

Members agreed that a further sizeable reduction in official interest rates was appropriate. This would enable a further meaningful reduction in rates paid by borrowers and could assist confidence among consumers and businesses. In addition, given the changing balance of risks, there was an advantage in moving the setting of monetary policy quickly to a neutral position...

On balance, members judged that a reduction in the cash rate of 75 basis points was appropriate on this occasion. Members were conscious of the high rate of inflation at present and of the need to bring it down over time, but felt that in the current environment a reduction of this size would not undermine that task. As such, they judged that the policy action would strike the right balance between the need to return inflation to the target and the need to reduce the risk of an unduly sharp weakening of demand."

For September
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (FSO)

Inflation-adjusted sales at Switzerland retail outlets climbed 6.4% in September in real terms. In nominal terms, retail sales advanced 8.2%. That is a welcome sign for Swiss policy makers as it shows that consumer spending is still strong despite fears of recession in the Euro-zone, Switzerland main trading partner and the UK. The products that posted the biggest increase in sales were food drinks and tobacco which grew 9.4% on the month, followed by "other products" up 8.9%, and clothing and accessories, which increased 4.5%.   

RPI m/m: -0.3%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.6% (Sep), 0.3% (Aug), -0.1% (Jul),
0.8% (Jun), 0.5% (May), 0.9% (Apr)

See Consumer Price Index for commentary.

Due to Testify About TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program)
Provided by: Federal Reserve
Official Release: Testimony 

Fed Chairman Bernanke said he saw some improvements in credit markets but that lending in the US remains "far from normal." Bernanke testified that bank-injections under the aid program are helping to bring stability to the financial system, and reducing some of the pressure on banks to deleverage, two main steps towards restoring flows of new credit. Some market participants would like Congress to pressure Bernanke and Paulson to reveals the identities of financial institutions borrowing from the Fed. 

From the Release: "The primary objective of these and other actions we have taken is to stabilize credit markets and to improve the access to credit of businesses and households.  There are some signs that credit markets, while still quite strained, are improving.  Interbank short-term funding rates have fallen notably since mid-October, and we are seeing greater stability in money market mutual funds and in the commercial paper market.  Interest rates on higher-rated bonds issued by corporations and municipalities have fallen somewhat, and bond issuance for these entities rose a bit in recent weeks.  The ongoing capital injections under the TARP are continuing to bring stability to the banking system and have reduced some of the pressure on banks to deleverage, two critical first steps toward restarting flows of new credit.  However, overall, credit conditions are still far from normal, with risk spreads remaining very elevated and banks reporting that they continued to tighten lending standards through October.  There has been little or no bond issuance by lower-rated corporations or securitization of consumer loans in recent weeks.

To help address the tightness of credit, on November 12 the federal banking agencies issued a joint statement on meeting the needs of creditworthy borrowers.  The statement took note of the recent strong policy actions designed to promote financial stability and improve banks' access to capital and funding.  In light of those actions, which have increased the capacity of banks to lend, it is imperative that all banking organizations and their regulators work together to ensure that the needs of creditworthy borrowers are met in a manner consistent with safety and soundness."

For November
Provided by: National Association of Home Builders
Official Release: Press Release

The NAHB housing market index, which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes,  plummeted in November, falling a full 5 points to 9, the lowest level since the series was created in January of 1985. The report says that the market is in crisis and action by Congress and teh Administration is needed in order to stabilize housing, including reducing foreclosures and incorporating incentives for qualifed buyers in a new economic recovery package.  

From the Release: "Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes plunged in November as worsening problems in the financial markets, job market weakness and overwhelming uncertainty about the economy continued to negatively impact consumer behavior, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.  The HMI sank five points to 9, the lowest level recorded since the series was created in January of 1985.

“Today’s report shows that we are in a crisis situation. If there’s any hope of turning this economy around, Congress and the Administration need to focus on stabilizing housing,” said NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va.. “Tremendous economic uncertainties have driven consumers from the housing market, and it’s going to take some major incentives to bring them back. Beyond the work that is being done to help reduce foreclosures, Congress must immediately incorporate such incentives for qualified buyers in a new economic recovery package.”

 

“The housing downturn has already cost America three million jobs in construction and related industries, and this downward momentum cannot be stemmed without substantive government intervention,” agreed NAHB’s new Chief Economist, David Crowe. “Congress should consider significant consumer incentives such as expanding the first-time home buyer tax credit and providing a government buy-down of mortgage interest rates for home purchasers. Both policies were successfully combined in the ‘70s to stimulate home buyer demand, and could get housing and the national economy moving again.”

For September
Provided by: Westpac-Melbourne Institute
Official Release: PDF

The leading index saw a very bleak -1.0% change on the month, as the Australian economy is facing difficult challenges in the face of an increasingly severe global slowdown that will affect demand for commodities. The domestic economy is also under pressure as stock prices plummeted and the housing market starts to soften. The poor economy has also put the breaks on job growth, which will cut into consumer spending. 

From the Release: ""The level of the Leading Index fell by 2.5 points (1%). Three of the four monthly components of the Leading Index fell in September. The share index fell by 10.4%; dwelling approvals were down by 7.2%; and US industrial production fell by 2.8% (since revised to minus 3.7%). The real money supply rose by 1.1%.

"The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 2. The Minutes from the meeting on November 4 indicated the need to quickly move policy to a neutral stance. Because the credit crisis has partly blunted the pass through from the RBA rate to household borrowing rates neutral is certainly below the previous "estimate" of 5.5% to 6%. We would assess neutral as 4.5% indicating that the Bank is likely to target at least neutral at its next meeting. Consequently, we expect that the Board will decide to cut rates by 0.75% at its next Board meeting on December 2. The low point in this cycle is expected to be 3.5% or less." Mr Evans said.

For October (s.a)
Provided by the: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Current Release: Indicator Page

Sales y/y: pr. -8.2%

Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia
Official Release: Speech 

From the Release: "Given that we have that scope, and given the underlying strengths of the economy, about the biggest mistake we could make would be to talk ourselves into unnecessary economic weakness. Yes, the situation is serious. But, as I suspect CEDA members know well, the long-run prospects for the Australian economy have not deteriorated to the extent that might be suggested by the extent of some of the gloomy talk that is around. If businesses remain focused on the long-term opportunities; if markets and commentators do the same; if banks remain willing to lend on reasonable terms for good proposals; if governments are able to so order their affairs as to continue supporting worthwhile – and I emphasise worthwhile – public investment (even if that involves some prudent borrowing); then Australia will come through the present period. We ought to go forward with some quiet confidence in our own abilities and in the opportunities that are on offer."

For November
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The outlook for manufacturing output in the next three months is the weakest for nearly thirty years, according to the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey published today.

Domestic and overseas orders continue to be hit by the global economic slowdown, with firms' perceptions of total order book levels no better than in October, the weakest for five years.

In a rapid turnaround from four months ago, however, manufacturers' output prices are no longer expected to rise.

The survey reveals that order books are continuing to suffer in the slowdown. Sixteen per cent say their total order book is above normal, while 53% say it is below normal, giving a rounded balance of -38%. Last month's figure (a balance of -39%) was the lowest since October 2003."

Annualized figure for October
Provided by: Department of Commerce
Current Release: PDF

Permits m/m: -12.0%, pr. -6.1% (Sep), -8.9% (Aug), -17.7% (Jul),
11.6% (Jun), -1.3% (May), 4.9% (Apr), -5.8% (Mar)

Building permits plunged in October, falling 12% to a 708,000 annual rate. That was a much bigger decline that expected by economists and points to a weak future construction. Housing starts hit a new record low the release noted as well. The data bodes poorly for the housing market which is in dire straits as sales continue to fall and home prices come down. The incentive to build new homes is not there for builders, which in could help to relieve some of the excess supply and inventory seen in the market and help to stabilize prices. Still, the data means more poeple out of work and less activity from the construction sector will go into GDP growth.

Core CPI m/m: -0.1%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.1% (Sep), 0.2% (Aug), 0.3% (Jul),
0.3% (Jun), 0.2% (May)
CPI y/y: 3.7%, forecast 4.1%, pr. 4.9% (Sep), 5.4% (Aug), 5.6% (Jul),
5.0% (Jun), 4.2 (May), 3.9% (Apr)
Core CPI y/y: 2.2%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.5% (Sep), 2.5% (Aug), 2.5% (Jul),
2.4% (Jun), 2.3% (May)

US consumer prices fell by the most in 61 years, posting a -1.0% monthly change for October. This was a bigger drop than expected by economists. The main catalyst for the decline was an 8.6% reduction in the price of energy. Excluding energy and food, prices fell 0.1%. The drop in core prices most likely reflects discounts by retailers as they try and cut prices in order to get customers to buy their goods. On the year, prices cooled to 3.7% from 4.9% in September a big decrease, and core prices grew by 2.2%. In addition to falling energy prices, transportation prices decreased 5.4% on falling airline fares. Food prices were up 0.3%.

Combined with Tuesday's report showing producer prices falling by 2.8%, it is evident that inflation is on the retreat during this economic slowdown and that the Fed will not feel restrained in cutting rates further if necessary.

For September
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "Canadian investors reduced their overall holdings of foreign securities by $665 million in September, due to further sales of foreign bonds. The divestment in foreign bonds exceeded the investment in foreign money market instruments and equities.

Non-resident investors followed a similar investment pattern and reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by $267 million, with a large divestment in Canadian bonds. This reduction occurred in spite of significant acquisitions of Canadian money market instruments and equities over the month.

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: Ministry of Finance