Unhealthy Trends Cont.

Example 2: This example shows decreasing prices on decreasing volume:

• When prices are going up and volume is decreasing, this means that the trend is unlikely to continue; prices will either increase at a slower rate or start to fall.
• When prices are decreasing and volume is decreasing, the trend is unlikely to continue and price will either decrease at a slower rate or start to fall.

1. January 23rd sees a sharp rise on high volume. The rise may be an example of a “buying/selling climax” of an uptrend. Isolated in this picture it is hard to tell. From this top to the middle/end of February prices head down steadily.
2. After the spike up in price, the rest of the week is spent pairing those gains. The sessions alternate between higher and lower volume, with the overall theme that volume is decreasing.
3. There is a pick up on volume on the last day of January as Euro bulls try and stem the downfall. Their attempts do not work, and price continues heading down. Again this fall is on falling volume, a warning sign of a weak or “unhealthy” trend.
4. At the end of this new decline the pair hits another low on February 6th. Volume on this day is very low meaning that the price is not indicative of the whole market and that fewer investors and institutions were responsible for its movement. The next day is a blue candle; volume picks up as more market players enter and take back the Euros losses from the previous day. Volume remains relatively high even though there is little movement until Feb 13th when price falls sharply on higher volume.
5. From Feb 13th to the 22nd, volume falls sharply as there is uncertainty. Price moves up and down in consolidation.
6. From the 22nd, volume (as can be seen from the MA) heads upward. After initially heading down price start rising in a couple of big candles. Those gains for the Euro are followed by two day days of losses, as investors have already consolidated but now are trying to gauge which direction the next trend will be. The Dollar’s recovery on a big volume day is not followed up with further declines, and trading is lighter.
7. Next, the pair heads upward while volume increases. This is a good sign that the preference of traders is moving in the direction of the Euro.

To add credence to the idea of this trend being an “unhealthy” one, it is important to put this period of time into the larger context of the EUR/USD pair’s movements.

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