Technical Analysis

On Balance Volume

Fundamental Release Cont.

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Leading Indicator combined with Fundamental Release:

This example shows how a trader following news events can use technical analysis to set up his trades and get a sense of the market before hand.

  1. The peak on the 27th provides a reference to draw new price and OBV trendlines. Right now our sell position using the green trendline sell signal at (2c) is actually negative. With our purple path, the short position we are holding comes a little later at 1.2580. The two are almost equal.

  2. There was a FOMC meeting scheduled on the 29th. A trader monitoring these critical levels will see if the FOMC decision is dovish or hawkish. Traders should be ready to buy Euros around 1.2550, as that seems to be the direction that would create more movement as it will coincide with trendline breaks.
    1. The OBV trendline gets crossed beforehand.
    2. The price trendline is very close to being crossed.
    3. When the FOMC delivers a dovish announcement there is a big breakout, 250 pips in two days.

  3. Here the upward OBV trendline is broken after the announcement moved the pairs a considerable amount. Traders on the right side of the move, including us, should take this break as an opportunity to take profit and sell the pair at around 1.2775. Those that didn’t have the Euro and wanted it come in to support the pair at the 1.2710 level.
    • The old support, before the announcement, had been 200 pips lower at the 1.2500/1.2520 handle that was tested on June 13th, 25th, and the 29th.

One can try trading using the On Balance Volume indicator with this strategy with a demo account, or back test and see how well it worked in the past. Throwing in some more indicators that are not volume based but based on momentum, volatility, or moving averages can help to give more signals and confirmations. This is a simple strategy using trendlines but even simple strategies can be effective.

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