Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Ex.– End of Feb

Example of EUR/USD: A Look at March using OBV Trendlines and Price Trendlines.

This example will show how to use the On Balance Volume indicator by drawing and applying analysis of trend lines. Trend lines make it easier to follow trends as they show levels of support and resistance that can be useful in examining the pace of the trend. Trend lines are one of easiest tools to use for technical analysis. This example shows how to use trend lines with On Balance Volume to make it act as a leading indicator. The buy and sell signals given on the On Balance Volume panel can come sooner than the signals from similar trendlines established on the price chart. Let us begin.

1. The second half of February is a ranging market within the channel 1.1970 and 1.1850. The form of the OBV indicator suggests a sideways direction.
2. February 28th starts a new upward trend that strengthens the value of the Euro in relation to the US Dollar. If one started following this pair in the period starting February 24th and drew price and OBV trend lines, one would see both pairs of trend lines crossed at the same highlighted candle. Since the trend line crosses come at the bottom of the ranging channel, this could be taken as a signal to buy Euros.
3. From its start at 1.1830 the pair heads up to 1.2090 then begins to fall. During this rise the OBV indicator has a clear upward trend. The OBV dips on March 1st and 2nd are necessary to draw the OBV trend line. As the form section had explained earlier, successive higher highs and higher lows are the signs of an up trending OBV line.
4. On the 6th, price heads downward. Before OBV acted as a confirmation of a new trend, now it will act as a leading indicator. The OBV trendline is crossed before the price trendline. For this strategy, the OBV cross will be considered a sell signal (a price trendline break needs to occur to act as confirmation).

• Hopefully the analysis is correct and one is able to get a short position in the middle of March 6th, on the circled candle. The mean of that candle is 1.2025 and that will be the rate of the position. OBV turns up after the position is opened but bounces off of the trendline (support turned resistance) and heads down. The upturn on OBV comes as price bounced of its trendline in a slight correction. Both upturns last only 1 session.
• Right afterwards the price trendline is broken giving the trader confirmation of the above sell action. 

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