Forex Education

EUR/USD Completes Head and Shoulders

• 4H: Anticipated Head and Shoulders completed.
• Short-term trendline cracked. Intermediate support tested (on 06/05/09).
• If this cracks, 1.3800 presents support. This leads to anticipation of a larger Head and Shoulder. (We see now on 06/08/09 that intermediate line cracked as well)

• 4H: One of our scenarios from the previous session followed through - there was a breakout of the triangle on the upside, a retest which was rather brief, and then a rally.
• The rally (06/05/09) pushed the pair to the 78.6% level, so there is a bit of possible resistance here.
• In an ACBD scheme, the CD leg is extended longer than AB.
• It is also more than a 127% extended retracement of the BC leg down.
• Very aggressive action warns against putting too much faith in the resistance zone.
• Daily: Short-term daily trendline broken and thus the technical conditions show bullish bias.
• Anticipate action at this powerline to see if it is simply a clear-out action, or a true breakout.

• 4H: Short-term trendline broken, but no manageable entry opportunity due to aggressive declining action.
• We will wait for another rally if we suspect a downtrend is being established here.
• There can be expected support at the 1.5700 area, which reflects 38.2% retracement.
• This coincides with intermediate support line, which will test whether the decline now is simply a retracement. The aggressive nature suggests it may be a reversal instead.

• 4H: We have been anticipating the current rally as wave 4, which according to the law of alternation in Elliott Wave principles, should be of a different form than the "abcde" zig-zag of wave 2.
• This wave should not cross the 1.1200 area, if this is a true Elliott Wave. This area is the start of wave 2, which should not be penetrated by wave 4 according the Elliott Wave principles. 

AUD/USD: Looking at Strong Rally

• The Aussie is very strong relative to other dollar crosses.
• Its current correction may open up a retracement entry opportunity to go long.  
• The price action did not break the short-term trendline yet on Friday, but now that it has, we may have to wait longer for the pair to test intermediate trendline.
• We now also have to monitor how aggressive price action is coming down from the currently cracked short-term support.

USD/CAD Caution after Rally

• Daily: We see that the currently anticipated rally is still within the bearish setups.
• However Nugzar also notes that the pair is at 78.6% cracked it, but quickly bounced from it as well. 
• Since the trendlines are still intact, it is still too early to expect a rally from this retracement support level. 

EUR/GBP  

• 4H: Intermediate trendline broken by aggressive rally.
• We may want to wait for retracement before going long.
• Day: Intermediate trendline in daily is intact, although the short-term one is broken (The short-term in daily is here the intermediate in 4H).
• We may want to wait for 61.8% retracement in Daily chart for a more conservative entry. 

EUR/JPY  

• 4H and Daily, showing bearishness at the resistance area.
• in 4H, we can see a big rejection as the market tried to rally above 138.50. However, price fell back below that to stick around 138.00
• Signs of decisive bearish candles here may present a shorting opportunity in our technical approach. For the trigger, we may want to monitor the 4H chart.