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Dear Forex Student,

Please read the following important notice before proceeding to the session notes:

Information and opinions contained in this webinar are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

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  June 5, 2009
 

 

EUR/USD Completes Head and Shoulders

  • 4H: Anticipated Head and Shoulders completed.
  • Short-term trendline cracked. Intermediate support tested (on 06/05/09).
  • If this cracks, 1.3800 presents support. This leads to anticipation of a larger Head and Shoulder. (We see now on 06/08/09 that intermediate line cracked as well)

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USD/JPY 
  • 4H: One of our scenarios from the previous session followed through - there was a breakout of the triangle on the upside, a retest which was rather brief, and then a rally.
  • The rally (06/05/09) pushed the pair to the 78.6% level, so there is a bit of possible resistance here.
  • In an ACBD scheme, the CD leg is extended longer than AB.
  • It is also more than a 127% extended retracement of the BC leg down.
  • Very aggressive action warns against putting too much faith in the resistance zone.
  • Daily: Short-term daily trendline broken and thus the technical conditions show bullish bias.
  • Anticipate action at this powerline to see if it is simply a clear-out action, or a true breakout.

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GBP/USD 
  • 4H: Short-term trendline broken, but no manageable entry opportunity due to aggressive declining action.
  • We will wait for another rally if we suspect a downtrend is being established here.
  • There can be expected support at the 1.5700 area, which reflects 38.2% retracement.
  • This coincides with intermediate support line, which will test whether the decline now is simply a retracement. The aggressive nature suggests it may be a reversal instead.

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USD/CHF Wave 4 Projection
  • 4H: We have been anticipating the current rally as wave 4, which according to the law of alternation in Elliott Wave principles, should be of a different form than the "abcde" zig-zag of wave 2.
  • This wave should not cross the 1.1200 area, if this is a true Elliott Wave. This area is the start of wave 2, which should not be penetrated by wave 4 according the Elliott Wave principles. 

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AUD/USD: Looking at Strong Rally

  • The Aussie is very strong relative to other dollar crosses.
  • Its current correction may open up a retracement entry opportunity to go long.  
  • The price action did not break the short-term trendline yet on Friday, but now that it has, we may have to wait longer for the pair to test intermediate trendline.
  • We now also have to monitor how aggressive price action is coming down from the currently cracked short-term support.

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USD/CAD Caution after Rally

  • Daily: We see that the currently anticipated rally is still within the bearish setups.
  • However Nugzar also notes that the pair is at 78.6% cracked it, but quickly bounced from it as well. 
  • Since the trendlines are still intact, it is still too early to expect a rally from this retracement support level. 

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EUR/GBP  

  • 4H: Intermediate trendline broken by aggressive rally.
  • We may want to wait for retracement before going long.
  • Day: Intermediate trendline in daily is intact, although the short-term one is broken (The short-term in daily is here the intermediate in 4H).
  • We may want to wait for 61.8% retracement in Daily chart for a more conservative entry. 

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EUR/JPY  

  • 4H and Daily, showing bearishness at the resistance area.
  • in 4H, we can see a big rejection as the market tried to rally above 138.50. However, price fell back below that to stick around 138.00
  • Signs of decisive bearish candles here may present a shorting opportunity in our technical approach. For the trigger, we may want to monitor the 4H chart.

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