Monthly Archives: March 2011

Daily Recap – A Volatile Trading Day

Today’s market was a near textbook example of volatility throughout the course of a trading day. Most pairs showed volatile movements and the market lacked direction awaiting the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and the unemployment rate number due out tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. Many analysts expect the number to show an increase in job creation in the US which could give a boost to the US dollar. Speculators look for this boost to come from the pressure good job numbers will have on the Fed, pushing it in a more hawkish direction.

Today at 4:30 PM EST the unemployment claims number for the US was released, and it gave a slight boost to the US Dollar, which edged higher against most pairs. It is unlikely that the market will choose a more clear direction until we head towards the morning. Prior to today’s report the EUR/USD edged higher to the area of 1.4230, and then retraced back to the strong resistance of 1.4150 once the unemployment claims number was released.

As always, tomorrow morning should be pretty exciting.

EUR/USD 3/31/2011 at 18:24.

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Daily Recap – Market Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Today the Euro held its ground against the US Dollar while the Japanese Yen’s recent weakness continued. All Yen crosses rallied today led by EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY.

Once EUR/JPY broke a key resistance level it bolted past the 117 level while AUD/JPY touched 85. Traders are speculating whether USD/JPY and GBP/JPY will soon follow suit and break major resistance levels of 84.49 and 135.48 respectively.

With this month’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report due out at 8:30am EST on Friday, Thursday’s market action could be a bit sideways while traders eagerly await the employment numbers. A positive jobs report combined with earlier statements this week by Fed Member Bullard that the US might start normalizing policies earlier than expected could send the USD into rally mode. Stay Tuned.

 

EUR/JPY Breaks Resistance Level of 117.00

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Daily Recap – Home Sales and a Hawkish Fed

The Greenback was strong across the board today as a key member of the Fed mentioned ‘normalizing monetary policy’ sometime this year which is hawkish in nature and hints towards a possible rate hike in the future. This dollar strength today came despite both existing and new home sales down sharply in February.

Helping to push the USD higher against the Euro was profit taking in gold and oil, plus the digestion of overnight news that Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of Portugal and Greece…again. USD/JPY and USD/CHF both managed to trade above 82 and 92 through the close of the US session, levels not seen in recent weeks.

The rally in the USD/JPY is going to see a real test as this week comes to a close with Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers coming out. If the market expectation of a gain of 210K jobs is met or exceeded, there is going to be even more pressure on the Fed to start winding down stimulus and talk interest rate hike, which may have the USD/JPY testing recent highs once again.

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

EUR/USD – 3/29/2011 – 9:16

EUR/USD – The US Dollar edged higher this morning after talks from ECB. The Euro hit the resistance level of 1.4150 but rejected quickly down to a low of 1.4050

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Charts, Forex Commentary | Leave a comment

Daily Recap – Reports to Start the Week

This week started off with the dollar losing strength throughout the US trading day. First, news came out in the US of Personal Spending. The consumer spending forecast was 0.6%, and the release beat expectations, coming out at 0.7%. Last month we were at 0.3%.

The Pending Home Sales report showed an increase of 2.1% in February beating the forecast of a decrease of .05%. Last month we were at 1.2%.

These two reports had a minimal impact on the US Dollar, which actually lost some ground during the US session against most other major currencies. We saw initial modest gains in the equity markets, but they we unable to hold and the market closed slightly down. Throughout the day there was a selloff in crude oil, with prices crossing below $104.

The EUR/USD hit a high of $1.4115 after some speculation that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates next month, and we have now seen the seeds of hawkish sentiments in the US, The UK, and the Eurozone for the first time in a long time.

Traders likely will look for chances to position themselves for moves this week anticipating comments coming out of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, and the Non-Farm payroll report in the US on Friday.

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Weekly Recap – Tight Yen and Nervous Euro

The week started off with range patterns dominating most major pairs and ended with the USD surging, bolstered by Fridays GDP report. “This is a Teflon market,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “It wants to go up, and it doesn’t seem to be stymied by much lately” in reference to US equity markets, but the same holds true for the USD right now.  The dollar seems to be making all sorts of strides Friday with a particular surge against the Yen

EURUSD in particular seems to breaking out of its week long trend as uncertainty and the reality of the recovery takes hold.  The Euro decline seemed widespread as fears over Portugal and the fate of the currency weighed heavily throughout the week. EUR saw particularly steep declines against its European brethren, such as EURGBP and EURCHF throughout the week in anticipation of the Portuguese Parliamentary decision and the subsequent resignation of its Prime Minister.  The drama in Lisbon only seemed to be amplifying European debt fears Friday as the 17-member Eurozone council voted to extend the lending capacity of its bailout fund.

After a very volatile week last week, the USDJPY traded very tightly this week, with each subsequent day trading in an even tighter range than the day before.  That changed today though with the USDJPY reaching a high of 81.49 and next week could see a breakout in either direction.

2 hour charts of Euro, Yen, Pound, and Swissy against the US Dollar.

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Leave a comment

USD/JPY 3/25/2011 – 14:36

2nd higher high on USD/JPY hourly chart. The daily range has expanded today instead of contracting for the first time all week.

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Charts, Forex Commentary | Leave a comment

EUR/CHF 3/25/2011 – 12:39

USD/CHF has gained momentum and the Euro is down from the 1.4200 level to 1.4075 now. Does EUR/CHF have more upward potential?

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Charts, Forex Commentary | Leave a comment

Daily Recap – Prime Minister Resigns

Portugal’s Prime Minster Socrates resigned today after Parliament voted down his austerity plan, causing Portugal’s debt to be downgraded 2 steps by Fitch Ratings and its bond yield to jump to a record high. The 10 year hit 7.9% while the 5 yr touched 8.5%.

Also a catalyst for a rising Euro today is the Irish 10 year yield hovering above 10%. Even with much talk about the European Union debt crisis the Euro has continued to be supported by the bullish expectation of a rate hike in April.

Disappointing numbers from the US Durable Goods report were only able to keep the EURUSD under the tested resistance level of 1.4150 temporarily as debt concerns in Portugal outweighed the US sentiment.

In New Zealand, the expectation of greater copper demand coupled with an estimated 2% decrease in copper production for the rest of 2011 sent the NZD/USD to 0.7491.

 

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Daily Recap | Leave a comment

EURUSD Update

Disappointing data from US, EUR/USD stayed under 1.4150 resistance level, later broke through after comments regarding Portugal debt concerns

The charts and examples found on this website are educational examples and are not intended to be representations of profits or losses that can be achieved through forex trading. When reviewing any such examples, please keep in mind that past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Posted in Charts, Forex Commentary | Leave a comment